Elecciones generales de la India de 2024

Las elecciones generales se celebraron en India del 19 de abril al 1 de junio de 2024 en siete fases, para elegir a los 543 miembros de la Lok Sabha . ^{[ b ]} Los votos se contaron y el resultado se declaró el 4 de junio para formar la 18.ª Lok Sabha . ^{[ 2 ]}^{[ 3 ]} El 7 de junio de 2024, el primer ministro Narendra Modi confirmó el apoyo de 293 diputados a Droupadi Murmu , la presidenta de la India . ^{[ 4 ]} Esto marcó el tercer mandato de Modi como primer ministro y su primera vez al frente de un gobierno de coalición , ^{[ 5 ]} con el Partido Telugu Desam de Andhra Pradesh y el Janata Dal (United) de Bihar emergiendo como dos aliados principales. ^{[ 6 ]}^{[ 7 ]}^{[ 8 ]}

Más de 968 millones de personas de una población de 1.400 millones de personas eran elegibles para votar, equivalente al 70 por ciento de la población total. ^{[ 9 ]}^{[ 10 ]}^{[ 11 ]} 642 millones de votantes participaron en la elección; 312 millones de ellos eran mujeres, la participación más alta de votantes femeninas de la historia. ^{[ 12 ]}^{[ 13 ]} Esta fue la elección más grande de la historia, superando la elección anterior , y duró 44 días, solo superada por las elecciones generales indias de 1951-52 . Las elecciones a la asamblea legislativa en los estados de Andhra Pradesh , Arunachal Pradesh , Odisha y Sikkim se llevaron a cabo simultáneamente con las elecciones generales, junto con las elecciones parciales para 25 circunscripciones en 12 asambleas legislativas.

El primer ministro en funciones, Narendra Modi, quien completó un segundo mandato , se postuló para un tercer mandato consecutivo. Su Partido Bharatiya Janata (BJP) había disfrutado de una mayoría absoluta —un mínimo de 272 escaños— en las elecciones de 2014 y 2019. La principal oposición fue la Alianza Nacional Inclusiva para el Desarrollo de la India (INDIA), una coalición formada en 2023 por el Congreso Nacional Indio (INC) y muchos partidos regionales. Las elecciones fueron criticadas por la falta de acción del BJP de Modi contra los discursos de odio, ^{[ 14 ]} el mal funcionamiento reportado de las máquinas de votación electrónica (EVM), ^{[ 15 ]}^{[ 16 ]} y la represión de los opositores políticos del BJP. ^{[ 17 ]}

Las encuestas de opinión de los principales medios de comunicación proyectaban una victoria decisiva para el BJP y su coalición, la Alianza Democrática Nacional (NDA). Sin embargo, el BJP ganó 240 escaños, frente a los 303 que había conseguido en 2019, y perdió su mayoría absoluta en el Lok Sabha, aunque la NDA en general obtuvo 293 de los 543 escaños de la cámara. ^{[ 18 ]} La coalición INDIA superó las expectativas, consiguiendo 234 escaños, 99 de los cuales fueron ganados por el Congreso, lo que le otorgó al partido el estatus de oposición oficial por primera vez en 10 años. ^{[ 19 ]}^{[ 20 ]}^{[ 21 ]} Siete independientes y diez candidatos de partidos no alineados también ganaron escaños en el Lok Sabha. ^{[ 22 ]}^{[ 23 ]}^{[ 24 ]}

Según los datos nacionales del Centro para el Estudio de las Sociedades en Desarrollo (CSDS) – Lokniti National Election Studies publicados en The Hindu , la Alianza Democrática Nacional (NDA) mantuvo una ventaja de 3 puntos porcentuales en la participación electoral nacional general (43% a 40%) sobre la alianza INDIA . ^{[ 25 ]} La NDA mantuvo su mayor ventaja de edad entre los votantes jóvenes de 18 a 25 años, capturando el 46% de sus votos en comparación con el 33% del bloque INDIA, ^{[ 26 ]} La alianza INDIA tuvo el mejor desempeño entre los votantes no alfabetizados, superando a la NDA por 42% a 38%, ^{[ 25 ]} mientras que el apoyo a la NDA aumentó con la educación superior y la riqueza económica, alcanzando un máximo del 45% entre los graduados y el 46% entre la clase más rica. ^{[ 25 ]}^{[ 27 ]} Geográficamente, la división espacial mostró que la NDA dominaba las grandes ciudades metropolitanas y las zonas urbanas con un 45% de participación electoral, ^{[ 28 ]} pero mientras el bloque de la NDA se impuso en las pequeñas ciudades semiurbanas (42% a 41%), las aldeas rurales siguieron siendo muy competitivas, con la NDA manteniendo una estrecha ventaja general del 42% al 41%. ^{[ 28 ]} En términos de comunidades, la NDA mantuvo un enorme apoyo de la casta superior hindú (61%) y obtuvo márgenes cómodos entre las Otras Clases Atrasadas (OBC), mientras que las Castas Programadas (Dalits) empataron perfectamente en el 31% para ambas coaliciones. ^{[ 25 ]} Las minorías religiosas, especialmente los musulmanes, se consolidaron fuertemente detrás de la oposición, con el 65% de los musulmanes votando por la alianza INDIA, ^{[ 29 ]}

Fondo

Política contemporánea y elecciones anteriores

India tiene un sistema multipartidista con dos partidos principales, el Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) y el Indian National Congress (INC), que dominan la política a nivel nacional. El BJP ha gobernado el país con Narendra Modi al frente desde 2014. El mandato de la 17.ª Lok Sabha estaba programado para finalizar el 16 de junio de 2024. ^{[ 30 ]} Las elecciones generales anteriores se celebraron en abril-mayo de 2019, tras las cuales la Alianza Democrática Nacional (NDA), liderada por el BJP, formó el gobierno de la unión , con Modi continuando como Primer Ministro . ^{[ 31 ]} La Alianza Nacional Inclusiva para el Desarrollo de la India , compuesta por 26 partidos de oposición, se formó en 2023 para competir contra la NDA en las elecciones. ^{[ 32 ]}

Sistema electoral

El artículo 83 de la Constitución de la India exige que las elecciones a la Lok Sabha se celebren cada cinco años. ^{[ 33 ]} Los 543 diputados son elegidos en circunscripciones uninominales mediante el sistema de mayoría simple . ^{[ 34 ]} La enmienda número 104 a la Constitución abolió los dos escaños que estaban reservados para la comunidad angloindia . ^{[ 35 ]}

Los ciudadanos indios mayores de 18 años, residentes habituales del distrito electoral y registrados para votar (su nombre figura en el padrón electoral), que posean una tarjeta de identificación de votante válida emitida por la Comisión Electoral de la India o equivalente, tienen derecho a votar. ^{[ 36 ]} Las personas condenadas por delitos electorales u otros delitos, así como los presos, no pueden votar. ^{[ 37 ]} Los indios con ciudadanía extranjera no tienen derecho a votar en la India. En la India no existe el voto por correo ni el voto en ausencia en línea ; los miembros de la diáspora india deben viajar a sus distritos electorales de origen para poder votar. ^{[ 38 ]}

Para las elecciones de 2024, 968 millones de personas eran elegibles para votar, un aumento de aproximadamente 150 millones de personas con respecto a las elecciones de 2019. ^{[ 39 ]} En Arunachal Pradesh , se establecería un centro de votación para el único votante registrado en la aldea de Malogam, ya que las leyes electorales estipulan que las cabinas de votación deben estar a menos de dos kilómetros (1,2 millas) de cualquier asentamiento. ^[⁴⁰^]^[⁴¹^] También se estableció un centro de votación dentro del Bosque de Gir en Gujarat para atender a un solo votante, un sacerdote en un templo hindú . ^[⁴²^] También se establecieron centros de votación dentro de un santuario de vida silvestre en Kerala , en un contenedor de envío en Gujarat y en 320 campamentos de socorro que albergaban a casi 59 000 personas desplazadas durante la violencia en Manipur . ^[⁴³^]^[⁴⁴^]

En marzo de 2024, la Corte Suprema de la India rechazó una petición del Partido del Congreso para poner fin al uso de máquinas de votación electrónica (EVM) y volver a las papeletas de papel y el recuento manual, que era el sistema utilizado en las elecciones hasta finales de la década de 1990, alegando el partido riesgos de fraude electoral. ^{[ 45 ]} Se utilizaron cerca de 5,5 millones de EVM en más de un millón de colegios electorales, con 15 millones de trabajadores electorales y personal de seguridad encargados de gestionar el desarrollo de las elecciones. ^{[ 46 ]}

Por primera vez, la Comisión Electoral de la India permitió a los votantes con discapacidad y a los mayores de 85 años votar desde sus hogares. ^{[ 47 ]} En Telangana , la votación en algunas zonas se extendió una hora más para que los votantes pudieran acudir en un horario más conveniente. ^{[ 48 ]}

Planificación

Los procesos clave durante una elección de Lok Sabha incluyeron el monitoreo del gasto de campaña, la prevención de la circulación de bienes ilícitos y el cumplimiento del Código de Conducta Modelo . En las últimas 48 horas antes de la votación, las campañas se suspenden y se implementan medidas para mantener el orden y prevenir disturbios. El día de la votación, se aplican reglas estrictas para prevenir influencias indebidas y garantizar un proceso electoral seguro y libre. Después de las elecciones, las máquinas de votación electrónica se sellan y se almacenan bajo estrictas medidas de seguridad, con la asistencia de funcionarios de mesa electoral durante todo el proceso. ^{[ 49 ]}

Cronograma

El calendario electoral para la 18.ª Lok Sabha fue anunciado por la Comisión Electoral de la India el 16 de marzo de 2024 y con él entró en vigor el Código de Conducta Modelo . ^{[ 50 ]}^{[ 51 ]}^{[ 52 ]} El mandato de la 17.ª Lok Sabha estaba programado para finalizar el 16 de junio de 2024. ^{[ 53 ]}

Resumen de fechas

Resumen de asientos

↑ Miembro del Rajya Sabha por Karnataka .
↑ Debido a la violencia, el 3 de junio se repitióla votación en una mesa electoral de cada una de las circunscripciones de Barasat y Mathurapur , en Bengala Occidental.
1 2 3 4 La votación en la circunscripción de Manipur Exterior en Manipur estaba programada en dos fases.^{[ 55 ]}
1 2 La votación en la circunscripción de Betul en Madhya Pradesh fue reprogramada del 26 de abril de 2024 (Fase 2) al 7 de mayo de 2024 (Fase 3) debido a la muerte del candidato del BSP .^{[ 54 ]}
↑ La votación en la circunscripción de Anantnag-Rajouri en Jammu y Cachemira se reprogramó del 7 de mayo de 2024 (Fase 3) al 25 de mayo de 2024 (Fase 6) debido a las condiciones climáticas.^{[ 56 ]}

Partidos y alianzas

La política de la India se volvió cada vez más bipolar en el período previo a las elecciones generales indias de 2024, con la aparición de dos alianzas principales: la Alianza Democrática Nacional (NDA), en el poder, y la Alianza Nacional Inclusiva para el Desarrollo de la India (INDIA), en la oposición. Seis partidos reconocidos como nacionales compitieron en las elecciones generales indias de 2024: el BJP, el INC, el Partido Comunista de la India (Marxista) (CPI(M)), el Partido Bahujan Samaj (BSP), el Partido Nacional del Pueblo (NPP) y el Partido Aam Aadmi (AAP), todos excepto el BSP formaban parte de una de las dos alianzas. ^{[ 57 ]} Además de los partidos nacionales, los partidos regionales (a los que se les asignan símbolos fijos) y otros partidos no reconocidos e independientes compitieron en las elecciones. ^{[ 58 ]}

Alianza Democrática Nacional (NDA)

La NDA es una alianza política amplia , mayoritariamente de centroderecha a derecha, liderada por el BJP.

Alianza Nacional India para el Desarrollo Inclusivo (INDIA)

INDIA es un gran bloque de partidos de oposición que se unieron para competir contra la NDA. ^{[ 61 ]}^{[ 62 ]}

Partidos de la India repartiendo escaños

Partidos de la India que forman parte de una coalición regional o que están fuera de la alianza.

Otros partidos y alianzas importantes

La líder del BSP, Mayawati, anunció que su partido se presentaría a las elecciones por su cuenta en la mayoría de los estados y se aliaría con otros partidos que no fueran el BJP ni el Congreso en algunos estados. ^{[ 67 ]} El 11 de mayo de 2023, el líder del Biju Janata Dal y entonces Ministro Principal de Odisha, Naveen Patnaik, dijo que su partido se presentaría solo a las elecciones al Lok Sabha en Odisha después de que fracasaran las conversaciones con el BJP. ^{[ 68 ]}

Candidatos

El primer ministro en funciones , Narendra Modi, fue anunciado como el candidato a primer ministro de la NDA. ^{[ 69 ]}^{[ 70 ]} El bloque INDIA anunció que la alianza decidirá al primer ministro después de las elecciones. ^{[ 71 ]}^{[ 72 ]}

Alianza Democrática Nacional

El BJP anunció su primera lista de 195 candidatos el 2 de marzo de 2024 ^{[ 73 ]}^{[ 74 ]} y la segunda lista de 72 candidatos se publicó el 13 de marzo, ^{[ 75 ]} mientras que la tercera lista de nueve candidatos se anunció el 21 de marzo. ^{[ 76 ]} La cuarta lista de 15 candidatos se publicó el 22 de marzo, ^{[ 77 ]} seguida de la declaración de la quinta lista de 111 candidatos el 24 de marzo. Finalmente, la vigésima lista de un candidato se publicó el 10 de mayo. ^{[ 78 ]}

Por primera vez desde 1996 , el BJP no presentó candidatos en la división de Cachemira , lo que analistas y políticos de la oposición atribuyen a la reacción popular contra la revocación por parte del gobierno del BJP de la autonomía de Jammu y Cachemira consagrada en el artículo 370 de la Constitución india en 2019. A pesar de no tener un candidato formal, el BJP mantiene presencia en la región mediante su apoyo a partidos locales ^{[ 79 ].}

Alianza Nacional Inclusiva para el Desarrollo de la India

El Congreso publicó su primera lista de 39 candidatos el 8 de marzo de 2024. ^{[ 80 ]}^{[ 81 ]} Finalmente, la vigésimo octava lista de un candidato se anunció el 7 de mayo. ^{[ 82 ]}

El Congreso Trinamool de toda la India (AITC) anunció su lista de 42 candidatos para los escaños parlamentarios de Bengala Occidental el 10 de marzo. ^{[ 83 ]} En el Frente de Izquierda , el CPI(M) anunció su primera lista de 44 candidatos que compiten por 13 estados diferentes el 28 de marzo. ^{[ 84 ]}

Principales cuestiones electorales

Desempleo

El problema del desempleo ha sido un gran problema para la economía india, afectando especialmente a los jóvenes. ^{[ 85 ]}^{[ 86 ]} El desempleo en la India ha alcanzado su nivel más alto en 45 años. ^{[ 87 ]} Según un informe del Banco Mundial de 2022 , la tasa de desempleo juvenil de la India se situó en el 23,2%, ^{[ 88 ]} mientras que el desempleo nacional rondaba el 7%. ^{[ 85 ]} En 2023, el 42,3% de los graduados estaban desempleados, lo que demuestra la falta de crecimiento del empleo necesario para dar cabida a la creciente fuerza laboral. ^{[ 89 ]}

El desempleo ocupó un lugar central en las campañas electorales, y la Alianza Nacional Inclusiva para el Desarrollo de la India, en oposición , criticó la gestión del gobierno del BJP de la economía india por el aumento de la inflación, la desigualdad y el desempleo. ^{[ 90 ]} Como parte de su manifiesto juvenil independiente, el bloque INDIA, liderado por el Congreso , prometió cubrir los 3 millones de vacantes en empleos gubernamentales e implementar el "Derecho al Aprendizaje", mediante el cual cualquier persona con diploma o título universitario de hasta 25 años puede solicitar empleo por un año y recibirá un salario anual de ₹100,000 por la duración del trabajo. ^{[ 91 ]}

Ceremonia de consagración del templo de Ram y sectarismo

El BJP preparó un folleto para los Programas de Inauguración del Ram Mandir para conectar con familias de todo el país. Después de la consagración del Ram Mandir en Ayodhya , una nueva era de sentimientos nacionalistas hindúes ha dominado la esfera política en la India . ^{[ 92 ]}^{[ 93 ]} Modi mantuvo una promesa política de larga data de la reconstrucción del Ram Mandir y se consideró que había cumplido el manifiesto del BJP para la población hindú de la nación. ^{[ 93 ]} La ideología nacionalista hindú de Modi y el BJP también ha obtenido un apoyo sustancial de los miembros de la comunidad hindú. ^{[ 94 ]}^{[ 95 ]} Al mismo tiempo, se han estrenado producciones de Bollywood con temas que apoyan las políticas del gobierno de Modi y las ideologías nacionalistas hindúes. ^{[ 96 ]} En respuesta a tales preocupaciones, el portavoz del BJP, Mmhonlumo Kikon, reconoció la existencia de un "nivel de percepción de amenaza", pero dijo que el partido estaba tratando de cambiar eso. ^{[ 97 ]}

Se desató una gran controversia cuando el opositor Partido del Congreso y sus líderes rechazaron una invitación a la ceremonia de consagración del Ram Mandir, alegando que el evento se había politizado y convertido en un «evento del BJP-RSS». ^{[ 98 ]} El ministro principal de Assam, Himanta Biswa Sarma, afirmó que la invitación era una oportunidad para que el Congreso «redujera su pecado» y que la historia seguiría juzgándolo como «antihindú». ^{[ 99 ]} Los cuatro Shankaracharyas también rechazaron asistir al evento, declarando que la ceremonia se había politizado como un acto de campaña en el templo a medio construir. ^{[ 100 ]}^{[ 101 ]}

Durante un mitin de campaña en Rajastán el 21 de abril, Narendra Modi acusó al Partido del Congreso de priorizar el acceso de los musulmanes a la riqueza nacional y de planear distribuir los recursos entre "quienes tienen más hijos" e "infiltrados" una vez en el poder, lo que reflejaba estereotipos sobre la supuesta mayor reproducción de los musulmanes y teorías conspirativas promovidas por el BJP según las cuales los musulmanes planeaban superar en número a los hindúes. El líder del Congreso, Mallikarjun Kharge, calificó las declaraciones de Modi como un "discurso de odio" cargado de pánico y una estratagema para desviar la atención del buen desempeño de la oposición frente al BJP durante la primera fase de las elecciones, mientras que funcionarios de Rajastán recibieron quejas de Azad Adhikar Sena y una organización sin fines de lucro exigiendo el arresto de Modi y la suspensión de su campaña. ^{[ 102 ]}^{[ 103 ]}

Una carta de queja de la organización Samvidhan Bacchao Nagrik Abhiyan (Campaña Ciudadana para Salvar la Constitución) a la Comisión Electoral de la India , firmada por más de 17.400 personas, alegaba que Modi había violado el Código de Conducta Modelo y la Ley de Representación del Pueblo de 1951 al pronunciar un discurso "dirigido no solo a apelar a los 'sentimientos comunitarios', sino también a instigar y agravar el odio de los hindúes contra los musulmanes". ^{[ 104 ]}^{[ 105 ]}

Bonos electorales

El 15 de febrero de 2024, la Corte Suprema de la India dictaminó que el sistema de bonos electorales de financiación de campañas, introducido por el gobierno de Modi en 2017, que permitía a individuos y empresas donar dinero a partidos políticos de forma anónima y sin límites, era inconstitucional, afirmando que el proceso permitía a los donantes ejercer "influencia sobre la formulación de políticas". ^{[ 106 ]} El 18 de marzo, la corte ordenó al Banco Estatal de la India (SBI) que proporcionara todos los registros relativos a los bonos electorales a la Comisión Electoral de la India antes del 21 de marzo para vincular a los donantes electorales con sus receptores y rechazó una petición de la Confederación de la Industria India , la Federación de Cámaras de Comercio e Industria de la India y las Cámaras de Comercio e Industria Asociadas de la India de divulgar las identidades de los donantes. Los informes iniciales sugieren que entre los principales donantes a los partidos políticos se encontraban algunas de las mayores empresas de la India, como Vedanta Limited , Bharti Airtel , RPSG Group y Essel Mining. También se constató que el BJP fue el receptor de casi la mitad de todas las donaciones registradas. ^{[ 107 ]}

En total, los cinco partidos políticos que recibieron más bonos electorales fueron el BJP, con 6.060,5 millones de rupias ; el All India Trinamool Congress (TMC), con 1.609,5 millones de rupias; el Partido del Congreso, con 1.421,8 millones de rupias; el Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), con 1.214,7 millones de rupias; y el Biju Janata Dal (BJD), con 775,5 millones de rupias. ^{[ 108 ]}^{[ 109 ]}^{[ 110 ]} El mayor comprador de bonos electorales fue Santiago Martin, director de la empresa de lotería Future Gaming and Hotel Services Private Limited, con sede en Tamil Nadu , quien compró bonos por valor de 13.680 millones de rupias (163 millones de dólares) entre 2020 y 2024 e hizo donaciones al TMC, al BJP y al Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), que gobierna Tamil Nadu. El mayor donante individual a cualquier partido político fue Megha Engineering and Infrastructure Limited (MEIL), una empresa constructora con sede en Hyderabad que compró bonos electorales por valor de más de 12.000 millones de rupias (144 millones de dólares) entre 2019 y 2024 e hizo donaciones al Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), al BJP y al Partido del Congreso, que se alternaron en el gobierno de Telangana durante ese tiempo. ^{[ 111 ]}

Algunos políticos de la oposición han calificado los Bonos Electorales de "estafa" y "red de extorsión". ^{[ 112 ]}^{[ 113 ]}^{[ 114 ]} En respuesta a las acusaciones sobre los bonos electorales, el portavoz del BJP, Syed Zafar Islam, negó que el partido hubiera cometido irregularidad alguna y afirmó que sus bonos electorales se obtuvieron "por mérito". ^{[ 111 ]} Sin embargo, observadores políticos indios han llegado a la conclusión de que o bien los empresarios indios han estado sobornando regularmente para salir de apuros, o bien el gobierno controlado por el BJP ha estado utilizando agencias gubernamentales para extorsionarlos. Según los datos publicados por el SBI, se descubrió que las empresas realizaron donaciones en torno al momento en que recibieron importantes contratos gubernamentales. Casi la mitad de los 30 principales donantes corporativos estaban siendo investigados por agencias gubernamentales en el momento en que adquirieron bonos electorales. ^{[ 115 ]}^{[ 116 ]}^{[ 117 ]}

campañas de partidos

Partido Bharatiya Janata

En la reunión del comité ejecutivo nacional del BJP celebrada los días 16 y 17 de enero de 2023, el partido reafirmó su confianza en el primer ministro Narendra Modi y extendió el mandato del presidente nacional del BJP, JP Nadda . ^{[ 118 ]}

Al trazar la estrategia del BJP para las próximas elecciones, Modi dijo en un discurso a los militantes del partido que debían tender puentes a todos los sectores de la sociedad, incluidas las comunidades marginadas y minoritarias, "sin consideraciones electorales". ^{[ 119 ]}

Tras las elecciones a la Asamblea Legislativa de 2023 , Modi estrenó el eslogan "Modi Ki Guarantee" para las elecciones de 2024. ^{[ 120 ]} Otro eslogan utilizado fue Abki Baar 400 Paar (Esta vez superaremos los 400), ^{[ 121 ]}^{[ 122 ]} en referencia al objetivo del partido de ganar más de 400 de los 543 escaños en el Lok Sabha. ^{[ 123 ]} Habiendo sido utilizado por el BJP en elecciones anteriores, incluidas las elecciones generales de 2019 con algunos cambios, ^{[ 124 ]} los analistas electorales han dicho que el camino para que el BJP logre este objetivo probablemente será ganar más escaños en el sur de la India que en elecciones anteriores. ^{[ 125 ]}

El partido celebró mítines políticos en varios estados con la dirección nacional, incluyendo a Modi, el presidente del BJP, JP Nadda, y Amit Shah, quienes hicieron campaña activamente. ^{[ 126 ]}^{[ 127 ]}^{[ 128 ]}

Durante un mitin de campaña, el primer ministro de Uttar Pradesh, Yogi Adityanath, describió las elecciones como una contienda entre "devotos de Ram " y "fuerzas anti-Ram" e instó a los votantes a elegir a los primeros. Modi también acusó a la oposición de planear la destrucción del templo de Ram una vez que llegaran al poder. ^{[ 129 ]}

Durante un mitin de campaña en Rajastán el 21 de abril, Narendra Modi acusó al Partido del Congreso de priorizar el acceso de los musulmanes a la riqueza nacional y de planear distribuir los recursos entre "quienes tienen más hijos" y "infiltrados" una vez en el poder. Esto reflejaba estereotipos sobre la supuesta mayor reproducción de los musulmanes y teorías conspirativas promovidas por el BJP según las cuales los musulmanes planeaban superar en número a los hindúes. El líder del Congreso, Mallikarjun Kharge, calificó las declaraciones de Modi como un "discurso de odio" cargado de pánico y una estratagema para desviar la atención del buen desempeño de la oposición frente al BJP durante la primera fase de las elecciones. Mientras tanto, funcionarios de Rajastán recibieron quejas de Azad Adhikar Sena y de una organización sin fines de lucro que exigían el arresto de Modi y la suspensión de su campaña. ^{[ 102 ]}^{[ 103 ]} Tras el discurso de Modi, el BJP publicó un vídeo animado en su cuenta oficial de Instagram reiterando las afirmaciones de Modi y mostrando a Rahul Gandhi sosteniendo una copia del manifiesto electoral del Partido del Congreso que se transforma en el símbolo de la Liga Musulmana de la India . Tras ser denunciado por varios usuarios, el vídeo fue retirado menos de 24 horas después de su publicación. ^{[ 130 ]} Un vídeo similar publicado en X dirigido a los votantes de Karnataka también fue retirado por orden de la Comisión Electoral y dio lugar a que la policía abriera causas contra altos dirigentes del BJP. ^{[ 131 ]}

Una carta de queja de la organización Samvidhan Bacchao Nagrik Abhiyan (Campaña Ciudadana para Salvar la Constitución) a la Comisión Electoral de la India , firmada por más de 17.400 personas, alegaba que Modi había violado el Código de Conducta Modelo y la Ley de Representación del Pueblo de 1951 al pronunciar un discurso "dirigido no solo a apelar a los 'sentimientos comunitarios', sino también a instigar y agravar el odio de los hindúes contra los musulmanes". ^{[ 104 ]}^{[ 105 ]}

El 14 de abril de 2024, el BJP invitó a diplomáticos extranjeros destinados en el país, así como a 25 partidos políticos extranjeros , entre ellos los partidos Conservador y Laborista del Reino Unido , la Unión Demócrata Cristiana de Alemania (CDU) y el Partido Socialdemócrata de Alemania (SPD), y la Liga Awami de Bangladesh , a observar la campaña electoral del partido . ^{[ 132 ]}^{[ 133 ]} Esta iniciativa formó parte de la campaña «Conoce al BJP», cuyo objetivo era la difusión internacional y la familiarización con el proceso electoral . Como parte de este programa, el presidente del BJP, JP Nadda, se reunió con enviados de 13 países. ^{[ 134 ]}^{[ 135 ]}

Alianza Nacional Inclusiva para el Desarrollo de la India

El primer mitin conjunto del bloque Alianza Nacional Inclusiva para el Desarrollo de la India (INDIA) se celebró en Patna , Bihar, el 3 de marzo de 2024. Entre los asistentes se encontraban el presidente del Congreso, Mallikarjun Kharge , el líder del partido , Rahul Gandhi , el jefe del Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) , Lalu Prasad Yadav , el ex viceprimer ministro de Bihar , Tejashwi Yadav , el líder del Partido Samajwadi , Akhilesh Yadav , y los líderes de la izquierda Sitaram Yechury y D. Raja . Kharge atacó a Kumar por cambiar frecuentemente de alianzas y criticó al BJP por no cumplir su promesa de crear empleos y por descuidar a los pobres y a la mayoría de la población del país. ^{[ 136 ]}

La alianza celebró conjuntamente un mitin en Shivaji Park, en Mumbai , el 17 de marzo, un día después de la finalización de la Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra de Rahul Gandhi . Al mitin asistieron Gandhi, el presidente del SS(UBT) , Uddhav Thackeray , el líder del NCP(SP) , Sharad Pawar , el líder del RJD , Tejashwi Yadav , y el líder del DMK y ministro principal de Tamil Nadu , MK Stalin , entre muchos otros. ^[¹³⁷^] En el mitin, Gandhi afirmó que se vio obligado a iniciar su yatra debido a la creciente inflación y el desempleo en el país. ^[¹³⁸^]

Pocos días después del arresto del jefe de gobierno de Delhi, Arvind Kejriwal, en relación con el presunto escándalo de licores de Delhi el 22 de marzo, ^{[ 139 ]} la alianza opositora realizó una manifestación de protesta en Ramlila Maidan , Delhi , el 31 de marzo, donde los líderes de la oposición alegaron que el caso de corrupción en su contra y su posterior arresto eran una "fabricación con motivos políticos" y una "caza de brujas". ^{[ 140 ]}^{[ 141 ]}^{[ 142 ]} En la manifestación, denominada "Loktantra Bachao" (Salven la Democracia), en medio de los acontecimientos actuales, la oposición intentó presentar las elecciones como una contienda entre "democracia y dictadura". ^{[ 143 ]}

Congreso Nacional Indio

La campaña del Congreso se lanzó desde Nagpur en un gran mitin al que se esperaba que asistieran más de un millón de personas el 28 de diciembre de 2023. ^{[ 144 ]} Este mitin también marcó el 138.º aniversario de la fundación del Congreso y se llevó a cabo para dinamizar a los cuadros del partido para las elecciones generales de 2024. ^{[ 145 ]} Se convocó a trabajadores del partido de todo el estado para que se unieran al mitin. ^{[ 145 ]}^{[ 146 ]}

El 14 de enero, el partido lanzó su Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra , ^{[ 147 ]} una continuación de la Bharat Jodo Yatra celebrada el año anterior. ^{[ 148 ]} La yatra comenzó en Thoubal , Manipur y terminó en Mumbai el 16 de marzo de 2024. ^{[ 147 ]} Cubrió 6713 kilómetros (4171 millas) a través de 14 estados. ^{[ 149 ]}

Rahul Gandhi advirtió que toda la India arderá si el BJP gana las elecciones parlamentarias de 2024 y cambia la Constitución, durante un discurso en el Ramlila Maidan de Delhi. El lema del partido para las elecciones fue "Haath Badlega Halaat" (La mano cambiará). ^{[ 150 ]}^{[ 151 ]}^{[ 152 ]}^{[ 153 ]}

Financiación colectiva

El Congreso inició una campaña de financiación colectiva conocida como Donate for Desh (Dona por el País) antes de las elecciones generales. Lanzó formalmente la versión digital de la campaña el 18 de diciembre de 2023 en un sitio web específico. Afirmó estar inspirada en el Fondo Tilak Swaraj de Mahatma Gandhi (1920-1921). La versión física de la campaña, que se realizaría mediante colectas puerta a puerta, se lanzó el 28 de diciembre. ^{[ 154 ]}^{[ 155 ]}

La campaña recibió ₹ 1,45 crore (US$150.000) en su primer día, siendo los cinco estados con mayor cantidad de donaciones Maharashtra , Rajasthan , Uttar Pradesh , Delhi y Karnataka . ^{[ 156 ]}

A finales de 2023, la campaña había recaudado alrededor de 9 crore de rupias (930 000 dólares estadounidenses) , de los cuales el 30 % se recaudó solo en Telangana y Maharashtra. ^{[ 157 ]}

La campaña había recaudado alrededor de 20 crore de rupias (2,1 millones de dólares estadounidenses ) según el partido cuando, el 28 de enero, cambió el nombre de su campaña de financiación colectiva a Donate for Nyay (Dona por la Justicia), en consonancia con la Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra de Rahul Gandhi . ^[¹⁵⁸^] La subsiguiente campaña de financiación colectiva recaudó cuatro crore en 4 días. ^[¹⁵⁹^]

Problemas de financiación

El 16 de febrero de 2024, el Partido del Congreso alegó que el Departamento de Impuestos sobre la Renta (IT) ordenó la congelación de cuentas bancarias del Partido del Congreso que contenían 2.100 millones de rupias (25,3 millones de dólares) como parte de una disputa legal en curso. ^{[ 160 ]} El tesorero del Partido del Congreso, Ajay Maken, agregó posteriormente que las autoridades fiscales impusieron un embargo de 2.100 millones de rupias (25 millones de dólares) el 13 de febrero, "prácticamente sellaron" sus cuentas bancarias y confiscaron 1.100 millones de rupias (14 millones de dólares). El líder del partido, Rahul Gandhi, se quejó de que las restricciones habían impedido que el partido hiciera campaña adecuadamente, y agregó que "Toda nuestra identidad financiera ha sido borrada". Gandhi también acusó a Modi y al Ministro del Interior, Amit Shah, de llevar a cabo una "acción criminal" contra el partido, lo cual el BJP negó. Su madre y exlíder del Congreso, Sonia Gandhi, también alegó que los problemas fiscales son "parte de los esfuerzos sistemáticos para paralizar" al partido. Actualmente hay una apelación pendiente ante la Corte Suprema. ^{[ 161 ]}

Según fuentes oficiales del Departamento de Impuestos, se han recuperado 135 crore de rupias del Congreso por infringir la legislación que exime a los partidos políticos del pago de impuestos, en lugar de congelar las cuentas bancarias del partido como había afirmado el partido de oposición. ^{[ 162 ]} El partido recibió nuevamente notificaciones del Departamento de Impuestos el 29 de marzo, solicitándole el pago de 1.823,08 crore de rupias (189 millones de dólares estadounidenses) . El Congreso acusó al BJP de practicar el "terrorismo fiscal" y alegó que el BJP está infringiendo gravemente las leyes del impuesto sobre la renta y que el Departamento de Impuestos debería exigirle al BJP el pago de 4.617,58 crore de rupias (480 millones de dólares estadounidenses) por dichas infracciones. ^[¹⁶³^]

Partido Comunista de la India (Marxista)

El Partido Comunista de la India (Marxista) inició su campaña electoral en Kerala tras anunciar 15 candidatos en el estado. ^{[ 164 ]}

Rashtriya Janata Dal

El Rashtriya Janata Dal inició su campaña con su Jan Vishwas Yatra ("Marcha de la Confianza del Pueblo") el 20 de febrero de 2024. El líder del RJD, Tejashwi Yadav, lanzó la marcha desde Muzaffarpur en Bihar . La marcha duró hasta el 1 de marzo de 2024 y abarcó 33 distritos. ^{[ 165 ]}^{[ 166 ]} En Siwan , el 23 de febrero, Yadav calificó al BJP de "basura" que acoge a otros partidos que se han convertido en "basura". ^{[ 167 ]}^{[ 168 ]}

Partido Aam Aadmi

El período electoral también coincidió con investigaciones de las autoridades sobre funcionarios estatales pertenecientes a partidos de oposición, como el Ministro Principal de Delhi y líder del Partido Aam Aadmi , Arvind Kejriwal , quien estaba siendo investigado por presunta corrupción en la asignación de licencias de licor , y el Ministro Principal de Jharkhand , Hemant Soren , quien fue arrestado en febrero de 2024 por presuntamente facilitar una venta ilegal de terrenos. La Dirección de Ejecución también está investigando a cuatro ministros principales no aliados con el BJP por diversos cargos, mientras que se han cerrado las investigaciones sobre ex políticos de la oposición que se unieron al BJP. Hartosh Singh Bal , periodista de la revista de actualidad The Caravan, declaró a Agence France-Presse que la actuación de las agencias gubernamentales indicaba su comportamiento como "lacayos del partido gobernante para intimidar a la oposición política". ^{[ 160 ]}

Tras el arresto de Kejriwal el 21 de marzo por los cargos de fraude con licencias de licor, la ministra de Finanzas de Delhi, Atishi Marlena Singh, acusó al BJP de orquestar una "conspiración política" contra Kejriwal. ^{[ 169 ]} Su arresto también provocó enfrentamientos entre líderes del partido, simpatizantes y la policía el 22 de marzo. ^{[ 170 ]} Rahul Gandhi, reaccionando al arresto de Kejriwal, dijo que un "dictador asustado" quiere crear una "democracia muerta", sin nombrar a nadie. ^{[ 171 ]} Después de ser liberado bajo fianza y autorizado a votar, Kejriwal instó a los ciudadanos a "votar contra la dictadura". ^{[ 172 ]} Luego regresó a prisión como parte de las condiciones de su fianza. ^{[ 173 ]}

Se sabe que el gobierno liderado por el BJP ha utilizado redadas de la Dirección de Ejecución para atacar a políticos de la oposición que lo critican, y el 95% de los casos registrados son contra líderes de la oposición. ^{[ 174 ]}^{[ 175 ]}^{[ 176 ]} Desde 2014, 25 líderes de la oposición que enfrentan cargos de corrupción se han unido al BJP, y 23 de ellos han visto sus investigaciones cerradas o congeladas después de unirse al partido gobernante. ^{[ 177 ]} Esto ha llevado al Partido del Congreso a comparar la tendencia con una "lavadora" en uno de sus videos de campaña. ^{[ 130 ]}

Shiv Sena

Tras una disputa interna que provocó la escisión del partido Shiv Sena en Maharashtra , el Tribunal Supremo de la India prohibió a la facción Shiv Sena (UBT) , que se unió a la alianza INDIA, utilizar el símbolo histórico del arco y la flecha del partido como símbolo electoral en las votaciones, y se lo otorgó en su lugar al ala Balasahebanchi Shiv Sena , que se unió a la NDA. Esto llevó a la facción UBT a adoptar una antorcha como símbolo electoral. ^{[ 178 ]}

Manifiestos de los partidos

Partido Bharatiya Janata

El BJP propuso una fórmula 'GYAN' que consta de cuatro segmentos: Garib (pobres), Yuva (jóvenes), Annadata (agricultores) y Nari (mujeres) en su manifiesto. ^{[ 179 ]} El Partido Bharatiya Janata inició una campaña para recopilar recomendaciones y sugerencias públicas para el progreso del Estado y del país, que se incorporarán al manifiesto del partido titulado 'Modi ki warranty' para las elecciones generales de 2024. ^{[ 180 ]}^{[ 181 ]}^{[ 182 ]}^{[ 183 ]}^{[ 184 ]}^{[ 185 ]}^{[ 186 ]}

Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam: Con el fin de asegurar la representación de las mujeres en las legislaturas estatales y en el liderazgo nacional, el BJP se comprometió a implementar sistemáticamente la Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam.
Lakhpati Didi : 30.000.000 de mujeres rurales están siendo empoderadas para convertirse en "Lakhpati Didis".
Raciones gratuitas: En el marco del programa PM Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana, el BJP anunció que proporcionaría raciones gratuitas a 800 millones de ciudadanos durante los próximos cinco años.
Incremento del precio mínimo de sustentación (MSP): en los cultivos de forma periódica, se prometió en el manifiesto. 6.000 rupias en apoyo financiero anual bajo el programa PM Kisan Samman Nidhi Yojana.
Electricidad gratuita: El suministro gratuito de electricidad a hogares de bajos ingresos, contemplado en el programa PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana, fue otra de las promesas incluidas en el manifiesto.
Viviendas de 3 crore: En el Plan de Vivienda del Primer Ministro, el manifiesto del BJP promete construir 30.000.000 de viviendas, se dará prioridad a las personas con discapacidad y se tendrá cuidado de asegurar que se les aloje de acuerdo con sus necesidades específicas.
Para los jóvenes: El BJP se compromete a promulgar leyes para detener la filtración de exámenes de ingreso. Ampliar el alcance del ecosistema de startups para fomentar el emprendimiento juvenil. Ampliar las perspectivas laborales en el sector manufacturero. Crear empleos mediante el desarrollo de infraestructura. Crear empleos mediante el crecimiento de la industria turística.
Para los camioneros: Construcción de edificios modernos con instalaciones que permitan a los camioneros descansar, estacionar y tener acceso a agua potable y alimentos en todas las carreteras nacionales.
Una Nación, Una Elección: En su manifiesto, o Sankalp Patra, el BJP incluye " Una Nación, Una Elección " para las elecciones generales. Esto implica que podrían celebrarse elecciones simultáneas para el Lok Sabha y todas las asambleas estatales en 2029. ^{[ 187 ]}
Código Civil Uniforme : El manifiesto incluye la implementación del Código Civil Uniforme (CCU). ^{[ 188 ]}
Ayushman gratuito para todos los adultos mayores: Bajo el programa Ayushman Bharat Yojana , todos los adultos mayores podrán acceder a atención médica gratuita y de alta calidad hasta por 5 lakhs de rupias.
Economía de 5 billones de dólares : El BJP se compromete a aumentar el PIB de la India a 5 billones de dólares para 2025 y a 10 billones de dólares para 2032. El Ministerio de Finanzas ha pronosticado que la economía de la India ocupará el tercer lugar a nivel mundial. ^{[ 189 ]}^{[ 190 ]} Anteriormente, en 2018 y nuevamente en 2019, Modi había declarado el objetivo de que el país alcanzara un PIB de 5 billones de dólares para 2022 y 2024 respectivamente, lo cual no se logró. ^{[ 191 ]}^{[ 192 ]}
Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas: comprometido a asegurar la membresía permanente de la India en el Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU .
Lucha contra el terrorismo : Iniciativas para crear alianzas que permitan eliminar el terrorismo mundial y combatir su financiación.
Extremismo de izquierda : Combatir el extremismo de izquierda promoviendo el crecimiento y utilizando diversos enfoques.
Tercera potencia económica : India se posicionará como el tercer país con mayor PIB. En los últimos diez años, India ascendió del puesto 11 al 5 en cuanto a PIB.
El hombre en la Luna y la Estación de Intercambio Espacial de la India: establecer una Estación de Intercambio Espacial de la India permanente y enviar un hombre a la Luna.

Congreso Nacional Indio

El Congreso publicó sus promesas electorales específicas para cada grupo de cara a las elecciones generales del mes de marzo. ^{[ 193 ]} El manifiesto se centra en cinco segmentos principales de la población y les promete:

Manifiesto de la Juventud : empleo formal durante un año para estudiantes graduados menores de 25 años, cobertura de 3.000.000 de vacantes de empleo público, transparencia en la contratación de personal público, fondo de 5.000 millones de rupias (605.000 dólares estadounidenses) para empresas emergentes, estandarización del proceso de examen de contratación pública y seguridad social para trabajadores independientes. ^{[ 194 ]}^{[ 195 ]}^{[ 196 ]}
Manifiesto de las Mujeres : ₹100,000 en asistencia financiera para mujeres de familias pobres, 50% de las nuevas contrataciones de empleos gubernamentales para mujeres, doble contribución del gobierno central al salario de las trabajadoras de anganwadi , ASHA y comedores escolares , asistencia legal en cada panchayat y al menos un albergue para mujeres trabajadoras en la sede del distrito. ^{[ 197 ]}^{[ 198 ]}
Manifiesto de los agricultores : garantía legal del precio mínimo de sustentación para los agricultores, condonación de los préstamos agrícolas, una política de importación y exportación que les sea favorable, eliminación del GST de los productos agrícolas y pagos directos a las cuentas bancarias de los agricultores en un plazo de 30 días en caso de pérdida de cosechas. ^{[ 199 ]}
Manifiesto de los Trabajadores : Cobertura sanitaria universal para los trabajadores, aumento del salario mínimo nacional a 400 rupias (4,8 dólares estadounidenses) al día desde las 172 rupias (2,1 dólares estadounidenses) actuales, una ley de garantía de empleo urbano similar a la MGNREGA en las zonas rurales, seguro de vida y de accidentes para los trabajadores del sector informal. ^{[ 200 ]}^{[ 201 ]}
Censo de castas : El partido del Congreso declaró que, si gana las elecciones, llevará a cabo un censo exhaustivo para determinar la población, las condiciones socioeconómicas y la representación en las instituciones de gobierno. También prometió impulsar legislación para eliminar el límite del 50% en las reservas para las castas y tribus registradas y las clases desfavorecidas, y para proteger los derechos forestales de las tribus. ^{[ 202 ]} El llamado de Rahul Gandhi a "jitni abadi, utna haq" (distribución de los recursos públicos proporcional a la población) y las demandas conjuntas de los partidos de la oposición (SP, RJD y Congreso) para un censo de castas. ^{[ 203 ]}

El manifiesto completo titulado Nyay Patra ( en hindi : न्याय पत्र , lit. ' Documento de Justicia ' ) se publicó el 5 de abril de 2024. ^{[ 204 ]}^{[ 205 ]} Algunos puntos destacables del manifiesto incluyen (además de las promesas mencionadas anteriormente):

Introducción de una ley para reconocer las uniones civiles entre parejas pertenecientes a la comunidad LGBTQIA+ .
Implementación del modelo de Rajastán de seguro sin efectivo hasta 2.500.000 para la atención médica universal .
Prohibición del vertido de efluentes en cuerpos de agua en toda la India.
El aumento de la cubierta forestal se debe a que India perdió la segunda mayor superficie forestal después de Brasil entre 2015 y 2020.
Establecimiento de centros deportivos comunitarios en cada manzana y municipio, así como centros polideportivos en cada distrito.
Establecimiento de facultades de medicina gubernamentales que también funcionen como hospitales en todos los distritos de la India.
Abolición del programa Agnipath y retorno a los procesos de reclutamiento habituales del Ejército, la Armada y la Fuerza Aérea.
Condonación, como medida excepcional, de los préstamos estudiantiles pendientes al 15 de marzo de 2024.
Reservar un día a la semana para debatir la agenda propuesta por la bancada de la oposición en cada Cámara del Parlamento .
No se intervendrá en las decisiones personales sobre alimentación y vestimenta, sobre el derecho a amar y casarse, y sobre el derecho a viajar y residir en cualquier parte de la India. Se derogarán todas las leyes y normas que interfieran indebidamente con las libertades individuales.
Despenalizar el delito de difamación y prever, por ley, un recurso rápido mediante indemnización por daños y perjuicios.
Rechazo de la idea de "Una nación, una elección".
Creación de una Comisión Judicial Nacional (CJN) responsable de la selección y el nombramiento de los jueces de los Tribunales Superiores y del Tribunal Supremo.
Enmienda de la Constitución para crear dos salas en la Corte Suprema: una Sala Constitucional y una Sala de Apelaciones. La Sala Constitucional, integrada por los siete magistrados de mayor antigüedad, conocerá y resolverá los casos relacionados con la interpretación de la Constitución y otros casos de relevancia jurídica o importancia nacional. La Sala de Apelaciones será la última instancia, y en salas compuestas por tres magistrados, conocerá de las apelaciones de los Tribunales Superiores y los Tribunales Nacionales.
Eliminación del "impuesto a los inversores ángel" y de todos los demás esquemas tributarios abusivos que inhiben la inversión en nuevas microempresas, pequeñas empresas y startups innovadoras.

Desinformación

El 21 de abril, durante un mitin de campaña electoral en Rajastán, Narendra Modi afirmó falsamente que el ex primer ministro Manmohan Singh había dicho que "los musulmanes tienen el primer derecho sobre los recursos del país". Sin embargo, en su discurso también mencionó a comunidades marginadas, incluyendo castas registradas , tribus registradas , otras clases marginadas , mujeres, niños y minorías. ^[²⁰⁶^] Modi afirmó falsamente que Rahul Gandhi no había mencionado a Gautam Adani ni a Mukesh Ambani durante las elecciones. Gandhi los había mencionado unas 25 veces. ^[²⁰⁷^]

En abril de 2024, la BBC informó que la inteligencia artificial generativa y los videos deepfake fueron presuntamente utilizados tanto por el BJP como por los partidos de la oposición en las elecciones de 2024. ^{[ 208 ]}

Un supuesto video manipulado del discurso del líder del BJP, Amit Shah , sobre las reservas en Telangana el 23 de abril fue publicado por el Congreso de Telangana en la plataforma de redes sociales X (anteriormente Twitter), donde se mostraba falsamente a Amit Shah anunciando la reducción de las reservas otorgadas a las comunidades SC, ST y OBC. ^{[ 209 ]} Shah acusó a la oposición de manipular su video, lo que llevó al registro de una denuncia y a la emisión de una citación al Ministro Principal de Telangana , Revanth Reddy . ^{[ 210 ]} La policía arrestó a dos personas, una del Partido del Congreso y otra del Partido Aam Aadmi (AAP) de la oposición, en relación con el caso de Shah. ^{[ 211 ]} El trabajador del Congreso arrestado estaba asociado con su unidad de redes sociales y se le acusó de haber creado el video. ^{[ 212 ]}^{[ 213 ]} El Partido del Congreso negó la participación de su trabajador en este caso. ^{[ 214 ]}

En junio de 2024, Time señaló que durante las elecciones, asociados y simpatizantes del BJP difundieron noticias falsas para desacreditar a sus oponentes y propagar el odio contra las minorías religiosas. ^{[ 215 ]}

Encuestas y sondeos

Encuestas de opinión

Encuestas a pie de urna

La Comisión Electoral de la India prohibió la publicación de todas las encuestas a pie de urna desde 48 horas antes de la Fase 1 de las elecciones hasta el final de la Fase 7. Esto tenía como objetivo evitar que las encuestas de fases anteriores influyeran en las decisiones de los votantes en fases posteriores. La prohibición finalizó tras el cierre de la votación de la Fase 7 a las 18:30 IST del 1 de junio de 2024. ^{[ 254 ]}

Votación

La votación de la Fase 1 se llevó a cabo el 19 de abril de 2024. ^{[ 263 ]}^{[ 264 ]} La repetición de la votación en 11 colegios electorales de Manipur Interior se realizó el 22 de abril debido a la violencia. ^{[ 265 ]}^{[ 266 ]} La repetición de la votación se realizó en ocho colegios electorales de Arunachal Pradesh el 24 de abril debido a informes de violencia y daños en las máquinas de votación electrónica. ^{[ 267 ]}^{[ 268 ]}
La votación de la Fase 2 se llevó a cabo el 26 de abril de 2024. ^{[ 269 ]}^{[ 270 ]} Se realizó una nueva votación el 29 de abril en un centro de votación en Chamarajanagar debido a la violencia y los daños a las máquinas de votación electrónica ^{[ 271 ]}^{[ 272 ]} y en seis centros de votación en Manipur Exterior el 30 de abril debido a la violencia, los daños a las máquinas de votación electrónica y la votación forzada presuntamente llevada a cabo por individuos armados no identificados. ^{[ 273 ]}^{[ 274 ]} También se realizó una nueva votación en un centro de votación en Ajmer el 2 de mayo de 2024, debido a un registro de votantes extraviado. ^{[ 275 ]}^{[ 276 ]}
La votación de la Fase 3 se llevó a cabo el 7 de mayo de 2024. La participación electoral en la tercera fase de las elecciones al Lok Sabha alcanzó el 65,68 %. En esta fase, 172,4 millones ( 172.400.000 ) de ciudadanos, de los cuales 88,85 millones ( 88.500.000 ) eran hombres y 83,9 millones ( 83.900.000 ) eran mujeres, estaban habilitados para emitir su voto. ^{[ 277 ]}
La votación de la Fase 4 se llevó a cabo el 13 de mayo de 2024, en la que votaron 96 circunscripciones. ^{[ 278 ]}
La votación de la Fase 5 se llevó a cabo el 20 de mayo de 2024, en la que votaron 49 circunscripciones. ^{[ 129 ]}
La votación de la Fase 6 se llevó a cabo el 25 de mayo de 2024, en la que votaron 58 circunscripciones. ^{[ 279 ]}
La votación de la Fase 7 se llevó a cabo el 1 de junio de 2024, en la que votaron 57 circunscripciones. ^{[ 280 ]} La repetición de la votación en una mesa electoral de cada una de las circunscripciones de Barasat y Mathurapur de Bengala Occidental se realizó el 3 de junio, debido a la violencia. ^{[ 281 ]}

Incidentes

Durante la Fase 1 de las elecciones, se desató la violencia fuera de un centro de votación en Thamanpokpi en Manipur . ^{[ 282 ]}^{[ 283 ]} Se reportaron enfrentamientos entre trabajadores del partido BJP y TMC en las circunscripciones de Cooch Behar , Alipurduar y Jalpaiguri de Bengala Occidental , ^{[ 284 ]}^{[ 285 ]} y un miembro de la Fuerza Central de Policía de Reserva (CPRF) fue encontrado muerto en una cabina de votación en Cooch Behar . ^{[ 286 ]}^{[ 287 ]} En Chhattisgarh , un miembro de la CRPF fue asesinado durante la votación. ^{[ 288 ]}^{[ 289 ]} Se reportaron enfrentamientos entre cuadros del VCK y del BJP en la circunscripción de Chidambaram en Tamil Nadu , donde dos cuadros del VCK y un cuadro del BJP resultaron heridos. ^{[ 290 ]}^{[ 291 ]}

Durante la Fase 2 de votación, ocho votantes en Kerala murieron de golpe de calor mientras votaban. ^{[ 292 ]}^{[ 293 ]} En Manipur, dos miembros del CPRF murieron y otros dos resultaron gravemente heridos en un ataque militante en el distrito de Bishnupur , ^{[ 294 ]}^{[ 295 ]} un hombre murió en un tiroteo entre dos grupos no identificados en los distritos de Kangpokpi e Imphal Este , ^{[ 296 ]}^{[ 297 ]} y se reportaron incidentes de vandalismo de EVM, intimidación y coacción a votantes en dos centros de votación en Ukhrul . ^{[ 298 ]}^{[ 299 ]}

Una carta de queja de la organización Samvidhan Bacchao Nagrik Abhiyan (Campaña Ciudadana para Salvar la Constitución) a la Comisión Electoral de la India , firmada por más de 17.400 personas, alegaba que Modi había violado el Código de Conducta Modelo y la Ley de Representación del Pueblo de 1951 al pronunciar un discurso "dirigido no solo a apelar a los 'sentimientos comunitarios', sino también a instigar y agravar el odio de los hindúes contra los musulmanes". ^{[ 300 ]}^{[ 301 ]}

Durante la Fase 6 de votación, Mehbooba Mufti , candidata del Partido Democrático Popular de Jammu y Cachemira por la circunscripción de Anantnag-Rajouri en Jammu y Cachemira , declaró que varios miembros de su partido fueron detenidos por la policía para impedirles votar. En Bengala Occidental, miembros del TMC bloquearon el coche de la candidata del BJP, Agnimitra Paul, mientras se dirigía a votar en la circunscripción de Medinipur . ^[³⁰²^] Prashant Jagdev, candidato del BJP para las elecciones a la Asamblea Legislativa de Odisha de 2024 en Begunia , fue arrestado bajo sospecha de vandalismo contra una máquina de votación electrónica. ^[³⁰³^]

Durante la Fase 7 de votación, una turba saqueó material electoral de una cabina de votación y lo arrojó a un estanque en Kultali , Jaynagar en Bengala Occidental. Se produjeron enfrentamientos entre partidarios del BJP y del TMC en Sandeshkhali . ^{[ 304 ]} En Uttar Pradesh , al menos 33 trabajadores electorales, incluyendo personal de seguridad y saneamiento, murieron de un golpe de calor, junto con un votante que esperaba en la fila en Ballia . ^{[ 305 ]} Posteriormente, los funcionarios electorales estatales declararon que se entregaría una compensación de 1,5 millones de rupias (18.000 dólares) a las familias de los trabajadores fallecidos. ^{[ 306 ]} Ese mismo día también se reportaron al menos diez muertes relacionadas con las elecciones en Bihar . ^{[ 307 ]} En respuesta a la ola de calor en curso, el jefe de la ECI, Rajiv Kumar, dijo que habían aprendido la lección y que "deberían haber completado las elecciones al menos un mes antes". ^{[ 308 ]}

Se reportaron casos de mal funcionamiento de las máquinas de votación electrónica y eliminación de candidatos pertenecientes a la oposición durante las elecciones. ^{[ 309 ]} El 18 de abril, la Corte Suprema solicitó a la ECI que investigara el mal funcionamiento reportado de las máquinas de votación electrónica en Kerala. ^{[ 16 ]} Se reemplazaron 150 máquinas de votación electrónica en Assam después de reportar mal funcionamiento. ^{[ 310 ]} En Varanasi , se rechazaron alrededor de 33 nominaciones que desafiaban a Narendra Modi, de las cuales ocho solicitantes alegaron que el proceso fue amañado a favor del BJP. ^{[ 17 ]}

El 4 de junio, el ex primer ministro de Chhattisgarh, Bhupesh Baghel, afirmó que existía una discrepancia en las cifras de las máquinas de votación electrónica, mientras que el ex primer ministro de Uttar Pradesh, Akhilesh Yadav, acusó a la administración de llevar a cabo arrestos de miembros de su partido para impedirles el recuento de votos. ^{[ 311 ]}

Participación electoral

En las elecciones votaron 642 millones de personas, incluyendo 312 millones de mujeres, lo que representa la mayor participación jamás registrada en unas solas elecciones. ^{[ 12 ]}^{[ 13 ]}

Apagar

Resultados

Mapa que muestra las circunscripciones ganadas por la alianza.

Reparto de escaños de los partidos en las elecciones

BJP (44,2%)
INC (18,2%)
SP (6,82%)
AITC (5,35%)
DMK (4,06%)
TDP (2,21%)
JD(U) (2,95%)
SS(UBT) (1,66%)
NCP(SP) (1,48%)
SHS (1,29%)
Otros (11,7%)

Porcentaje de votos de los partidos en las elecciones

BJP (36,6%)
INC (22,0%)
SP (4,58%)
AITC (4,37%)
YSRCP (2,06%)
BSP (2,04%)
TDP (1,98%)
DMK (1,82%)
IPC(M) (1,76%)
RJD (1,57%)
Otros (21,3%)

Tras la primera ronda, el BJP ganó su primer escaño después de que Mukesh Dalal , su candidato para la circunscripción de Surat en Gujarat , fuera elegido sin oposición tras el rechazo y la retirada de otros candidatos. ^{[ 318 ]}^{[ 319 ]} No se celebró ninguna votación en la circunscripción, ya que la ECI había certificado los resultados dos semanas antes debido a la ausencia de candidatos rivales. ^{[ 320 ]}

El resultado general de las elecciones fue descrito en varias fuentes de medios como un "shock" para Narendra Modi, ^{[ 321 ]}^{[ 322 ]} ya que el BJP no alcanzó sus expectativas de ganar 400 escaños . ^{[ 323 ]} Aunque las predicciones previas a las elecciones apuntaban a una mayoría abrumadora para el BJP, el bloque INDIA tuvo un desempeño mucho mejor de lo que habían predicho las encuestas a pie de urna, ^{[ 324 ]} con victorias sorpresivas en estados importantes como Uttar Pradesh , Maharashtra y Bengala Occidental . ^{[ 325 ]} El BJP tuvo que depender de los 28 escaños acumulados ganados por el Telugu Desam Party con sede en Andhra Pradesh, liderado por Chandrababu Naidu , y el Janata Dal (United) con sede en Bihar , liderado por Nitish Kumar, para que la NDA mantuviera su mayoría en el Lok Sabha. ^[³²⁶^]^[³²⁷^]^[³²⁸^]

Por alianza y partido

Por región

Por estado o territorio de la unión

Composición de los asientos

Resultados por estado

Andhra Pradesh (25)

Arunachal Pradesh (2)

Assam (14)

Bihar (40)

Chhattisgarh (11)

Goa (2)

Gujarat (26)

Haryana (10)

Himachal Pradesh (4)

Jharkhand (14)

Karnataka (28)

Kerala (20)

Madhya Pradesh (29)

Maharashtra (48)

Manipur (2)

Meghalaya (2)

Mizoram (1)

Nagaland (1)

Odisha (21)

Punjab (13)

Rajastán (25)

Sikkim (1)

Tamil Nadu (39)

Telangana (17)

Tripura (2)

Uttar Pradesh (80)

Uttarakhand (5)

Bengala Occidental (42)

Islas Andamán y Nicobar (1)

Chandigarh (1)

Dadra y Nagar Haveli y Daman y Diu (2)

Delhi (7)

Jammu y Cachemira (5)

Ladakh (1)

Lakshadweep (1)

Puducherry (1)

Secuelas

Narendra Modi called the NDA's lead "a historical feat in India's history", while Congress party president Mallikarjun Kharge said the election was a "moral and political loss" for Modi and a "win for democracy" and the public.^[329] In a speech to his supporters on 4 June, Modi said that the NDA would form a third consecutive government.^[330] Following a meeting with other members of the NDA on 5 June, Modi was formally endorsed to become prime minister again.^[331] On 7 June, he was selected as leader of the NDA^[332] and was inaugurated as prime minister on 9 June.^[333] On 10 June, Modi unveiled his 71-member cabinet, of which the BJP took 61 portfolios, including foreign affairs, home affairs, finance and defence, while the Telugu Desam Party and Janata Dal (United) took two ministries each, with the rest going to other members of the NDA.^[334] The BJP's Om Birla was reelected for a second term as Speaker of the Lok Sabha on 26 June.^[335]

Independent MPs from Sangli and Purnia, Vishal Patil and Pappu Yadav, both of whom are primary members of the Congress party, extended their support to it after the election, effectively increasing the opposition alliance's tally to 236.^[336]^[337]^[338] On 8 June, the leadership of the Congress Party unanimously nominated Rahul Gandhi to become Leader of the Opposition, a position which had been vacant since 2014.^[339] He formally assumed the post on 25 June.^[340]

Reactions

International

Leaders and officials of Antigua and Barbuda, Argentina, Armenia, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Barbados, Belgium, Belize, Benin, Bhutan, Bolivia, Brazil, Cambodia, Canada, China, Comoros, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Eswatini, European Union, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Guyana, Honduras, Iceland, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Italy, Jamaica, Japan, Kenya, Latvia, Lithuania, the Maldives, Madagascar, Malaysia, Mauritius, Moldova, Nepal, Netherlands, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, the Philippines, Russia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Serbia, Singapore, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sri Lanka, Sweden, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Timor Leste, Uganda, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United States, Vietnam, Yemen, and Zambia congratulated Modi on his victory.^[341]^[342]^[343]^[344]^[345]^[346]^[347]^[348]

Stock markets

The benchmark BSE Sensex and Nifty50 indices hit intraday record highs and the Indian rupee strengthened after the exit polls were released. However, on the day results were announced, Indian stock markets crashed.^[349] Rahul Gandhi subsequently called for an investigation, saying that Modi, Amit Shah, and finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman had misled investors into buying stocks before the release of the election results on 4 June in anticipation of a landslide victory by the BJP.^[350]

Notes

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External links

Contenido multimedia relacionado con las elecciones generales de la India de 2024 en Wikimedia Commons.

[2] Miembro del Rajya Sabha por Karnataka .

[3] Debido a la violencia, el 3 de junio se repitióla votación en una mesa electoral de cada una de las circunscripciones de Barasat y Mathurapur , en Bengala Occidental.

[Outer_Manipur-56] 1 2 3 4 La votación en la circunscripción de Manipur Exterior en Manipur estaba programada en dos fases.^{[ 55 ]}

[Betul-58] 1 2 La votación en la circunscripción de Betul en Madhya Pradesh fue reprogramada del 26 de abril de 2024 (Fase 2) al 7 de mayo de 2024 (Fase 3) debido a la muerte del candidato del BSP .^{[ 54 ]}

[Anantnag-Rajouri-61] La votación en la circunscripción de Anantnag-Rajouri en Jammu y Cachemira se reprogramó del 7 de mayo de 2024 (Fase 3) al 25 de mayo de 2024 (Fase 6) debido a las condiciones climáticas.^{[ 56 ]}

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