Las elecciones presidenciales se celebraron en Estados Unidos el 8 de noviembre de 2016. La fórmula republicana del empresario Donald Trump y el gobernador de Indiana, Mike Pence, derrotó a la fórmula demócrata de la exsecretaria de Estado Hillary Clinton y el senador junior de Virginia , Tim Kaine , en lo que se consideró una de las mayores sorpresas políticas en la historia de Estados Unidos. [ 3 ] Fue la quinta y más reciente elección presidencial en la que el candidato ganador perdió el voto popular . [ 2 ] [ 4 ]
El presidente demócrata en funciones, Barack Obama, no era elegible para buscar un tercer mandato debido a los límites de mandato establecidos por la Vigésimo Segunda Enmienda a la Constitución de los Estados Unidos . Clinton, esposa del expresidente Bill Clinton y, como tal, exprimera dama, obtuvo la nominación sobre el senador estadounidense Bernie Sanders en las primarias demócratas y se convirtió en la primera mujer nominada a la presidencia por un partido político estadounidense importante. Inicialmente considerado un candidato novedoso , Trump se presentó como un político ajeno al sistema, de hablar directo, y emergió como el favorito republicano , derrotando a varios oponentes notables, incluidos los senadores estadounidenses Ted Cruz y Marco Rubio , así como los gobernadores John Kasich y Jeb Bush . [ 5 ] La campaña populista y nacionalista de derecha de Trump prometió " Hacer que Estados Unidos vuelva a ser grande " y se opuso a la corrección política y a muchos acuerdos de libre comercio de los Estados Unidos , [ 6 ] mientras apoyaba un enfoque más duro sobre la inmigración ilegal . Trump obtuvo una amplia cobertura mediática gratuita debido a sus comentarios incendiarios. [ 7 ] [ 8 ] Clinton enfatizó su amplia experiencia política; Denunció a Trump y a la mitad de sus seguidores como fanáticos y extremistas " deplorables "; y abogó por la expansión de las políticas de Obama , haciendo hincapié en la igualdad racial , los derechos LGBT , los derechos de las mujeres y el capitalismo inclusivo . [ 9 ]
El tono de la campaña electoral fue ampliamente caracterizado como divisivo, negativo y preocupante. [ 10 ] [ 11 ] [ 12 ] Trump enfrentó controversia por sus puntos de vista sobre raza e inmigración , incidentes de violencia contra manifestantes en sus mítines, [ 13 ] [ 14 ] [ 15 ] y numerosas acusaciones de conducta sexual inapropiada, incluida la cinta de Access Hollywood . La popularidad e imagen pública de Clinton se vieron empañadas por preocupaciones sobre su ética, confiabilidad, [ 16 ] y una controversia y posterior investigación del FBI sobre su uso indebido de un servidor de correo electrónico privado mientras se desempeñaba como secretaria de estado, este último tema recibió más cobertura mediática que cualquier otro durante la campaña. [ 17 ] [ 18 ] Clinton lideró casi todas las encuestas nacionales y de estados indecisos, con algunos modelos predictivos que le daban más del 90 por ciento de probabilidad de victoria. [ 19 ] [ 20 ]
El día de las elecciones, Trump superó las expectativas de las encuestas, ganando varios estados clave para lograr la mayoría en el Colegio Electoral, aunque perdió el voto popular a nivel nacional por 2,87 millones de votos. [ 21 ] Clave para la victoria inesperada de Trump fueron sus victorias en los estados del Cinturón del Óxido de tendencia demócrata de Michigan , Pensilvania y Wisconsin , que ganó por menos de 80.000 votos en los tres estados del " muro azul " combinados y obtuvo un total de 46 votos electorales. Se percibió que las sorpresivas victorias de Trump fueron ayudadas por la falta de campaña de Clinton en algunos estados clave (especialmente Wisconsin), [ 22 ] el giro a la derecha de la clase trabajadora blanca , [ 23 ] [ 24 ] así como la influencia de los votantes de Obama-Trump y los votantes de Sanders-Trump . [ 25 ] [ 26 ] [ 27 ] Finalmente, Trump recibió 304 votos electorales frente a los 227 de Clinton, ya que dos electores infieles desertaron de Trump y cinco de Clinton. Trump fue el primer presidente sin experiencia previa en el servicio público ni en el ejército .
Con acceso a las urnas a todo el electorado nacional, el candidato libertario Gary Johnson recibió casi 4,5 millones de votos (3,27%), el porcentaje de votos más alto a nivel nacional para un candidato de un tercer partido desde Ross Perot en 1996 , [ 28 ] mientras que la candidata del Partido Verde, Jill Stein, recibió casi 1,45 millones de votos (1,06%). El candidato independiente Evan McMullin recibió el 21,4% de los votos en su estado natal de Utah, el porcentaje de votos más alto para un candidato de un partido no mayoritario en cualquier estado desde 1992. [ 29 ]
El 6 de enero de 2017, la Comunidad de Inteligencia de EE. UU. concluyó que el gobierno ruso había interferido en las elecciones [ 30 ] [ 31 ] con el fin de "socavar la fe pública en el proceso democrático estadounidense, denigrar a la Secretaria Clinton y perjudicar su elegibilidad y su posible presidencia". [ 32 ] Una investigación del Fiscal Especial [ 33 ] [ 34 ] concluyó en marzo de 2019 que Rusia había interferido "de manera generalizada y sistemática" a favor de la candidatura de Trump, pero no estableció que miembros de la campaña de Trump conspiraran con el gobierno ruso. [ 35 ] [ 36 ]
Fondo

El presidente Barack Obama , demócrata y ex senador estadounidense por Illinois , no podía presentarse a la reelección para un tercer mandato debido a las restricciones de los límites de mandato presidencial estadounidenses establecidos por la Vigésimo Segunda Enmienda . [ 37 ] [ 38 ]
Tanto el Partido Demócrata como el Republicano, así como terceros partidos como el Verde y el Libertario, celebraron una serie de elecciones primarias presidenciales y asambleas electorales que tuvieron lugar entre febrero y junio de 2016, escalonadas entre los 50 estados, el Distrito de Columbia y los territorios de EE . UU . Este proceso de nominación también fue una elección indirecta, donde los votantes emitieron sus votos por una lista de delegados a la convención de nominación de un partido político , quienes a su vez eligieron al candidato presidencial de su partido. La especulación sobre la campaña de 2016 comenzó casi inmediatamente después de la campaña de 2012, cuando la revista New York declaró que la carrera había comenzado en un artículo publicado el 8 de noviembre, dos días después de las elecciones de 2012. [ 39 ] El mismo día, Politico publicó un artículo que predecía que las elecciones generales de 2016 serían entre Clinton y el exgobernador de Florida Jeb Bush , mientras que un artículo en The New York Times nombró al gobernador de Nueva Jersey, Chris Christie , y al senador Cory Booker de Nueva Jersey como posibles candidatos. [ 40 ] [ 41 ]
Nominaciones
Partido Republicano
primarias
Con diecisiete candidatos importantes entrando en la contienda, comenzando con Ted Cruz el 23 de marzo de 2015, esta fue la mayor cantidad de candidatos a las primarias presidenciales de cualquier partido político en la historia de Estados Unidos, [ 42 ] antes de ser superada por las primarias presidenciales demócratas de 2020. [ 43 ]
Antes de los caucus de Iowa del 1 de febrero de 2016, Perry, Walker, Jindal, Graham y Pataki se retiraron debido a los bajos números en las encuestas. A pesar de liderar muchas encuestas en Iowa, Trump quedó en segundo lugar detrás de Cruz, después de lo cual Huckabee, Paul y Santorum se retiraron debido a los malos resultados en las urnas. Después de una victoria considerable para Trump en las primarias de New Hampshire , Christie, Fiorina y Gilmore abandonaron la carrera. Bush hizo lo mismo después de obtener el cuarto lugar detrás de Trump, Rubio y Cruz en Carolina del Sur . El 1 de marzo, la primera de las cuatro primarias del " Supermartes ", Rubio ganó su primera contienda en Minnesota , Cruz ganó Alaska , Oklahoma y su estado natal de Texas , y Trump ganó los otros siete estados que votaron. Sin ganar impulso, Carson suspendió su campaña unos días después. [ 44 ] El 15 de marzo, el segundo "Supermartes", Kasich ganó su única contienda en su estado natal de Ohio , y Trump ganó cinco primarias, incluida Florida . Rubio suspendió su campaña tras perder en su estado natal. [ 45 ]
Entre el 16 de marzo y el 3 de mayo, solo tres candidatos permanecieron en la contienda: Trump, Cruz y Kasich. Cruz obtuvo la mayor cantidad de delegados en cuatro contiendas del Oeste y en Wisconsin , manteniendo una posibilidad real de impedir que Trump obtuviera la nominación en la primera votación con 1237 delegados. Trump luego aumentó su ventaja al lograr victorias aplastantes en su estado natal de Nueva York y en cinco estados del Noreste en abril, seguidas de una victoria decisiva en Indiana el 3 de mayo, asegurando los 57 delegados del estado. Sin más posibilidades de forzar una convención disputada , tanto Cruz [ 46 ] como Kasich [ 47 ] suspendieron sus campañas. Trump siguió siendo el único candidato activo y fue declarado el presunto nominado republicano por el presidente del Comité Nacional Republicano, Reince Priebus, la noche del 3 de mayo. [ 48 ]
Un estudio de 2018 reveló que la cobertura mediática de Trump condujo a un mayor apoyo público hacia él durante las primarias. El estudio mostró que Trump recibió casi 2 mil millones de dólares en publicidad gratuita, más del doble que cualquier otro candidato. El politólogo John M. Sides argumentó que el repunte de Trump en las encuestas se debió "casi con toda seguridad" a la frecuente cobertura mediática de su campaña. Sides concluyó: "Trump está subiendo en las encuestas porque los medios de comunicación se han centrado constantemente en él desde que anunció su candidatura el 16 de junio". [ 49 ] Antes de obtener la nominación republicana, Trump recibió poco apoyo de los republicanos tradicionales. [ 50 ]
Candidatos
Candidatos
Los principales candidatos fueron seleccionados por los distintos medios de comunicación con base en el consenso general. Los siguientes fueron invitados a debates televisados oficiales según sus índices de popularidad en las encuestas.
Trump recibió un total de 14.010.177 votos en las primarias. Trump, Cruz, Rubio y Kasich ganaron al menos una primaria cada uno, siendo Trump quien obtuvo el mayor número de votos y Ted Cruz el segundo.
Selección del vicepresidente
Trump centró su atención en seleccionar un compañero de fórmula después de convertirse en el presunto nominado el 4 de mayo. [ 86 ] A mediados de junio, Eli Stokols y Burgess Everett de Politico informaron que la campaña de Trump estaba considerando al gobernador de Nueva Jersey , Chris Christie , al expresidente de la Cámara de Representantes, Newt Gingrich, de Georgia , al senador Jeff Sessions de Alabama y a la gobernadora de Oklahoma , Mary Fallin . [ 87 ] Un informe del 30 de junio de The Washington Post también incluyó a los senadores Bob Corker de Tennessee, Richard Burr de Carolina del Norte , Tom Cotton de Arkansas, Joni Ernst de Iowa y al gobernador de Indiana, Mike Pence, como personas que aún estaban siendo consideradas para la candidatura. [ 88 ] Trump también dijo que estaba considerando a dos generales militares para el puesto, incluido el teniente general retirado Michael Flynn . [ 89 ]
El 12 de julio se informó que Trump había reducido su lista de posibles compañeros de fórmula a tres: Christie, Gingrich y Pence. [ 90 ] Dos días después, varios medios de comunicación importantes informaron que Trump había seleccionado a Pence como su compañero de fórmula. Trump confirmó estos informes en un mensaje de Twitter el 15 de julio y formalizó el anuncio al día siguiente en Nueva York. [ 91 ] [ 92 ] El 19 de julio, la segunda noche de la Convención Nacional Republicana de 2016 , Pence ganó la nominación republicana a la vicepresidencia por aclamación. [ 93 ]
Partido Demócrata
primarias
La exsecretaria de Estado Hillary Clinton , quien también se desempeñó en el Senado de los Estados Unidos y fue la primera dama de los Estados Unidos , se convirtió en la primera demócrata en el campo en lanzar formalmente una candidatura importante a la presidencia con un anuncio el 12 de abril de 2015, a través de un mensaje de video. [ 94 ] Si bien las encuestas de opinión a nivel nacional en 2015 indicaron que Clinton era la favorita para la nominación presidencial demócrata de 2016, enfrentó fuertes desafíos del senador independiente Bernie Sanders de Vermont, [ 95 ] quien se convirtió en el segundo candidato importante cuando anunció formalmente el 30 de abril que se postulaba para la nominación demócrata. [ 96 ] Los números de las encuestas de septiembre de 2015 indicaron una brecha cada vez más estrecha entre Clinton y Sanders. [ 95 ] [ 97 ] [ 98 ] El 30 de mayo, el exgobernador de Maryland, Martin O'Malley, fue el tercer candidato importante en entrar en la carrera de primarias demócratas, [ 99 ] seguido por el exgobernador independiente y senador republicano de Rhode Island, Lincoln Chafee, el 3 de junio, [ 100 ] [ 101 ] el exsenador de Virginia, Jim Webb , el 2 de julio, [ 102 ] y el exprofesor de derecho de Harvard, Lawrence Lessig, el 6 de septiembre. [ 103 ]
El 20 de octubre, Webb anunció su retiro de las primarias y exploró una posible candidatura independiente. [ 104 ] Al día siguiente, el vicepresidente Joe Biden decidió no postularse, poniendo fin a meses de especulación, declarando: "Si bien no seré candidato, no guardaré silencio". [ 105 ] [ 106 ] El 23 de octubre, Chafee se retiró, declarando que esperaba "el fin de las guerras interminables y el comienzo de una nueva era para los Estados Unidos y la humanidad". [ 107 ] El 2 de noviembre, después de no clasificarse para el segundo debate sancionado por el DNC tras la adopción de un cambio de reglas que anuló las encuestas que antes podrían haber requerido su inclusión en el debate, Lessig también se retiró, reduciendo el campo a Clinton, O'Malley y Sanders. [ 108 ]
El 1 de febrero de 2016, Clinton ganó los caucus de Iowa por un margen de 0,2 puntos sobre Sanders. Después de no ganar delegados en Iowa, O'Malley se retiró de la carrera presidencial ese día. El 9 de febrero, Sanders se recuperó para ganar las primarias de New Hampshire con el 60% de los votos. En las dos contiendas restantes de febrero, Clinton ganó los caucus de Nevada con el 53% de los votos y obtuvo una victoria decisiva en las primarias de Carolina del Sur con el 73% de los votos. [ 109 ] [ 110 ] El 1 de marzo, once estados participaron en la primera de las cuatro primarias del " Supermartes ". Clinton ganó Alabama , Arkansas , Georgia , Massachusetts , Tennessee , Texas y Virginia y 504 delegados comprometidos, mientras que Sanders ganó Colorado , Minnesota , Oklahoma y su estado natal de Vermont y 340 delegados. El fin de semana siguiente, Sanders obtuvo victorias en Kansas , Nebraska y Maine con márgenes de 15 a 30 puntos, mientras que Clinton ganó las primarias de Luisiana con el 71% de los votos. El 8 de marzo, a pesar de no haber tenido nunca una ventaja en las primarias de Michigan , Sanders ganó por un pequeño margen de 1,5 puntos y superó las encuestas por más de 19 puntos, mientras que Clinton obtuvo el 83% de los votos en Misisipi . [ 111 ] El 15 de marzo, el segundo "Supermartes", Clinton ganó en Florida , Illinois , Misuri , Carolina del Norte y Ohio . Entre el 22 de marzo y el 9 de abril, Sanders ganó seis caucus en Idaho , Utah , Alaska , Hawái , Washington y Wyoming , así como las primarias de Wisconsin , mientras que Clinton ganó las primarias de Arizona . El 19 de abril, Clinton ganó las primarias de Nueva York con el 58% de los votos. El 26 de abril, en el tercer "Supermartes", conocido como las "primarias de Acela", ella ganó en Connecticut , Delaware , Maryland y Pensilvania , mientras que Sanders ganó en Rhode Island . A lo largo de mayo, Sanders logró otra victoria sorpresiva en las primarias de Indiana.[ 112 ] y también ganó enVirginia OccidentalyOregón, mientras que Clinton ganó elcaucus de Guamylas primarias de Kentucky(y también las primarias no vinculantes en Nebraska y Washington).
El 4 y 5 de junio, Clinton obtuvo dos victorias en el caucus de las Islas Vírgenes y en las primarias de Puerto Rico . Dos días después, Associated Press y NBC News informaron que Clinton se había convertido en la candidata virtual tras alcanzar el número requerido de delegados, incluidos los delegados comprometidos y los superdelegados , para asegurar la nominación, convirtiéndose así en la primera mujer en obtener la nominación presidencial de un partido político importante de Estados Unidos. [ 113 ] El 7 de junio, Clinton obtuvo la mayoría de los delegados comprometidos tras ganar las primarias en California , Nueva Jersey , Nuevo México y Dakota del Sur , mientras que Sanders solo ganó en Montana y Dakota del Norte . Clinton también ganó la primaria final en el Distrito de Columbia el 14 de junio. Al concluir el proceso de primarias, Clinton había obtenido 2204 delegados comprometidos (54% del total) otorgados por las elecciones primarias y los caucus, mientras que Sanders había obtenido 1847 (46%). De los 714 delegados no comprometidos o "superdelegados" que iban a votar en la convención de julio , Clinton recibió el respaldo de 560 (78%), mientras que Sanders recibió el de 47 (7%). [ 114 ]
Aunque Sanders no se había retirado formalmente de la contienda, anunció el 16 de junio que su principal objetivo en los meses siguientes sería trabajar con Clinton para derrotar a Trump en las elecciones generales. [ 115 ] El 8 de julio, los designados de la campaña de Clinton, la campaña de Sanders y el Comité Nacional Demócrata negociaron un borrador de la plataforma del partido. [ 116 ] El 12 de julio, Sanders respaldó formalmente a Clinton en un mitin en New Hampshire en el que apareció junto a ella. [ 117 ] Posteriormente, Sanders encabezó 39 mítines de campaña en nombre de Clinton en 13 estados clave. [ 118 ]
Candidatos
Candidatos
Los siguientes candidatos fueron entrevistados con frecuencia por las principales cadenas de televisión y canales de noticias por cable, o figuraron en encuestas nacionales publicadas. Lessig fue invitado a un foro, pero se retiró cuando se modificaron las reglas, lo que le impidió participar en debates oficiales.
Clinton recibió 16.849.779 votos en las primarias.
Selección del vicepresidente
En abril de 2016, la campaña de Clinton comenzó a compilar una lista de 15 a 20 personas para evaluar para el puesto de compañero de fórmula, aunque Sanders continuó desafiando a Clinton en las primarias demócratas. [ 124 ] A mediados de junio, The Wall Street Journal informó que la lista corta de Clinton incluía al Representante Xavier Becerra de California, al Senador Cory Booker de Nueva Jersey , al Senador Sherrod Brown de Ohio , al Secretario de Vivienda y Desarrollo Urbano Julián Castro de Texas , al Alcalde de Los Ángeles Eric Garcetti de California , al Senador Tim Kaine de Virginia , al Secretario de Trabajo Tom Perez de Maryland , al Representante Tim Ryan de Ohio y a la Senadora Elizabeth Warren de Massachusetts . [ 125 ] Informes posteriores afirmaron que Clinton también estaba considerando al Secretario de Agricultura Tom Vilsack , al Almirante retirado James Stavridis y al Gobernador John Hickenlooper de Colorado. [ 126 ] Al hablar sobre su posible elección de vicepresidente, Clinton dijo que el atributo más importante que buscaba era la capacidad y la experiencia para asumir inmediatamente el rol de presidente. [ 126 ]
El 22 de julio, Clinton anunció que había elegido al senador Tim Kaine de Virginia como su compañero de fórmula. [ 127 ] Los delegados en la Convención Nacional Demócrata de 2016 , que tuvo lugar del 25 al 28 de julio, nominaron formalmente la fórmula demócrata.
Partidos minoritarios e independientes

Los candidatos de terceros partidos e independientes que obtuvieron más de 100.000 votos a nivel nacional o que figuraron en las papeletas de votación de al menos 15 estados se enumeran por separado.
Partido Libertario
- Gary Johnson , 29.º gobernador de Nuevo México . Candidato a la vicepresidencia: Bill Weld , 68.º gobernador de Massachusetts .
- Respaldos destacados: Scott Rigell , Tom Campbell , James L. Buckley , Jesse Ventura , John Stossel
- Respaldo de otros partidos: Partido de la Independencia de Nueva York
- John McAfee , fundador y director ejecutivo de McAfee, Inc.
- Respaldos destacados: Adam Kokesh , John Moore , L. Neil Smith
- Austin Petersen , propietario y fundador de The Libertarian Republic.
Acceso a las papeletas de votación para los 538 votos electorales.
Candidatos
Candidatos retirados
Partido Verde
- Jill Stein , médica de Lexington, Massachusetts . Candidato a la vicepresidencia: Ajamu Baraka , activista de Washington, DC.
Acceso a la papeleta para 480 votos electorales ( 522 con voto por escrito ): [ 128 ] mapa
- Como voto escrito: Georgia, Indiana, Carolina del Norte [ 129 ] [ 130 ]
- Sin acceso a la boleta electoral: Nevada, Dakota del Sur, Oklahoma [ 129 ] [ 131 ]
Candidatos
Partido de la Constitución
- Darrell Castle , abogado de Memphis, Tennessee . Candidato a vicepresidente: Scott Bradley , empresario de Utah .
Acceso a la papeleta para 207 votos electorales ( 451 con voto por escrito ): [ 132 ] [ 133 ] mapa
- Como votos escritos: Alabama, Arizona, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Montana, Nebraska, Nuevo Hampshire, Nueva York, Ohio, Oregón, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia [ 132 ] [ 134 ] [ 135 ] [ 136 ] [ 137 ]
- Sin acceso a la boleta electoral: California, Distrito de Columbia, Massachusetts, Carolina del Norte, Oklahoma [ 132 ]
Candidatos
Independiente
- Evan McMullin , director de políticas de la Conferencia Republicana de la Cámara de Representantes . Candidata a la vicepresidencia: Mindy Finn , presidenta de Empowered Women.
- Respaldo de otros partidos: Partido de la Independencia de Minnesota , Partido de la Independencia de Carolina del Sur
Acceso a la papeleta para 84 votos electorales ( 451 con voto por escrito ): [ 139 ] mapa
- Como se escribe: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, California, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nuevo Hampshire, Nueva Jersey, Nueva York, Dakota del Norte, Ohio, Oregón, Pensilvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Washington, Virginia Occidental, Wisconsin [ 139 ] [ 140 ] [ 141 ] [ 142 ] [ 143 ] [ 144 ] [ 145 ]
- Sin acceso a la boleta electoral: Distrito de Columbia, Florida, Hawái, Indiana, Misisipi, Nevada, Carolina del Norte, Oklahoma, Dakota del Sur, Wyoming
En algunos estados, el compañero de fórmula de Evan McMullin figuraba como Nathan Johnson en la boleta electoral en lugar de Mindy Finn, aunque Nathan Johnson solo debía ser un nombre provisional hasta que se eligiera un compañero de fórmula definitivo. [ 146 ]
Partido por el Socialismo y la Liberación
Otras nominaciones
Campaña para las elecciones generales


Creencias y políticas de los candidatos
Hillary Clinton centró su candidatura en varios temas, entre ellos el aumento de los ingresos de la clase media, la ampliación de los derechos de las mujeres, la reforma del financiamiento de las campañas electorales y la mejora de la Ley de Cuidado de la Salud Asequible . En marzo de 2016, presentó un plan económico detallado que basaba su filosofía económica en el capitalismo inclusivo , el cual proponía una "recuperación" que anulaba las reducciones de impuestos y otros beneficios para las empresas que trasladaban empleos al extranjero; con incentivos para las empresas que compartían las ganancias con los empleados, las comunidades y el medio ambiente, en lugar de centrarse en las ganancias a corto plazo para aumentar el valor de las acciones y recompensar a los accionistas; así como el aumento de los derechos de negociación colectiva ; y la imposición de un "impuesto de salida" a las empresas que trasladaban sus sedes fuera de los EE. UU. para pagar una tasa impositiva más baja en el extranjero. [ 165 ] Clinton promovió la igualdad salarial por igual trabajo para abordar las supuestas deficiencias actuales en cuanto a cuánto se paga a las mujeres por hacer los mismos trabajos que hacen los hombres, [ 166 ] promovió explícitamente centrarse en los asuntos familiares y el apoyo a la educación preescolar universal , [ 167 ] expresó su apoyo al derecho al matrimonio entre personas del mismo sexo , [ 167 ] y propuso permitir que los inmigrantes indocumentados tuvieran un camino hacia la ciudadanía afirmando que " [ ] en su esencia es un asunto familiar". [ 168 ]
La campaña de Donald Trump se basó en gran medida en su imagen personal, reforzada por su exposición mediática previa. [ 169 ] El eslogan principal de la campaña de Trump, ampliamente utilizado en la mercancía de campaña, fue Make America Great Again (Hagamos que Estados Unidos vuelva a ser grande). La gorra de béisbol roja con el eslogan estampado en el frente se convirtió en un símbolo de la campaña y ha sido usada frecuentemente por Trump y sus seguidores. [ 170 ] Las posiciones populistas de derecha de Trump —descritas por The New Yorker como nativistas , proteccionistas y semiaislacionistas— difieren en muchos aspectos del conservadurismo tradicional estadounidense . [ 171 ] Se opuso a muchos acuerdos de libre comercio y políticas de intervención militar que los conservadores generalmente apoyan, y se opuso a los recortes en Medicare y los beneficios de la Seguridad Social . Además, ha insistido en que Washington está "roto" y que solo puede ser arreglado por alguien ajeno al sistema. [ 172 ] [ 173 ] [ 174 ] El apoyo a Trump era alto entre los votantes blancos varones de clase trabajadora y media con ingresos anuales inferiores a 50.000 dólares y sin título universitario . [ 175 ] Este grupo, en particular aquellos sin diploma de bachillerato , sufrió una disminución de sus ingresos en los últimos años. [ 176 ] Según The Washington Post , el apoyo a Trump es mayor en áreas con una tasa de mortalidad más alta para las personas blancas de mediana edad. [ 177 ] Una muestra de entrevistas con más de 11.000 encuestados con tendencia republicana de agosto a diciembre de 2015 encontró que Trump en ese momento encontró su mayor apoyo entre los republicanos en Virginia Occidental , seguido de Nueva York , y luego seguido de seis estados del sur. [ 178 ]
Cobertura mediática
Clinton mantuvo una relación tensa —y, en ocasiones, conflictiva— con la prensa a lo largo de su vida en el servicio público. [ 179 ] Semanas antes de su entrada oficial como candidata presidencial, Clinton asistió a un evento del cuerpo de prensa política, comprometiéndose a comenzar de nuevo en lo que describió como una relación "complicada" con los periodistas políticos. [ 180 ] Clinton fue criticada inicialmente por la prensa por evitar responder a sus preguntas, [ 181 ] [ 182 ] después de lo cual concedió más entrevistas.
Por el contrario, Trump se benefició de la cobertura mediática gratuita más que cualquier otro candidato. Desde el inicio de su campaña hasta febrero de 2016, Trump recibió casi 2 mil millones de dólares en atención mediática gratuita, el doble de la cantidad que recibió Clinton. [ 183 ] Según datos del Informe Tyndall , que rastrea el contenido de las noticias nocturnas, hasta febrero de 2016, Trump por sí solo representó más de una cuarta parte de toda la cobertura de las elecciones de 2016 en los noticieros nocturnos de NBC , CBS y ABC , más que todas las campañas demócratas juntas. [ 184 ] [ 185 ] [ 186 ] Los observadores señalaron la capacidad de Trump para obtener una cobertura constante de los principales medios de comunicación "casi a voluntad". [ 187 ] Sin embargo, Trump criticó frecuentemente a los medios por escribir lo que él alegaba que eran historias falsas sobre él [ 188 ] y ha llamado a sus seguidores a ser "la mayoría silenciosa ". [ 189 ] Trump también dijo que los medios "dieron un significado falso a mis palabras" y que no le importa ser criticado por los medios siempre y cuando sean honestos al respecto. [ 190 ] [ 191 ]
Controversias
Según una amplia gama de encuestas representativas, tanto Clinton como Trump tenían índices de desaprobación netos significativos, y sus reputaciones controvertidas marcaron el tono de la campaña. [ 192 ]
La práctica de Clinton durante su tiempo como Secretaria de Estado de usar una dirección de correo electrónico y un servidor privados , en lugar de los servidores del Departamento de Estado, obtuvo una amplia atención pública en marzo de 2015. [ 193 ] Se plantearon preocupaciones sobre la seguridad y la preservación de los correos electrónicos, y la posibilidad de que se hubieran violado leyes. [ 194 ] Después de que se plantearon acusaciones de que algunos de los correos electrónicos en cuestión pertenecían a esta llamada categoría de "clasificados desde su nacimiento", se inició una investigación del FBI sobre cómo se manejó la información clasificada en el servidor de Clinton. [ 195 ] [ 196 ] [ 197 ] [ 198 ] La investigación del FBI concluyó el 5 de julio de 2016, con una recomendación de no presentar cargos, una recomendación que fue seguida por el Departamento de Justicia.
Además, el 9 de septiembre, Clinton dijo: "Saben, para ser muy generalista, se podría incluir a la mitad de los seguidores de Trump en lo que yo llamo la canasta de los deplorables . Son racistas, sexistas, homófobos, xenófobos, islamófobos... lo que sea", [ 199 ] y agregó: "Pero esa 'otra' canasta de personas son aquellas que sienten que el gobierno las ha defraudado, que la economía las ha defraudado, que a nadie le importan, que a nadie le preocupa lo que sucede con sus vidas y su futuro; y que están desesperadas por un cambio... Esas son personas a las que también debemos comprender y con las que debemos empatizar". [ 200 ]
Donald Trump criticó su comentario por considerarlo un insulto a sus seguidores. [ 201 ] [ 202 ] Al día siguiente, Clinton expresó su arrepentimiento por haber dicho "la mitad", al tiempo que insistió en que Trump había amplificado deplorablemente "opiniones y voces de odio". [ 203 ] Anteriormente, el 25 de agosto, Clinton pronunció un discurso criticando la campaña de Trump por usar "mentiras racistas" y permitir que la ultraderecha ganara prominencia. [ 204 ]
El 11 de septiembre, Clinton abandonó un acto conmemorativo del 11-S antes de tiempo debido a una enfermedad. [ 205 ] Un vídeo de la salida de Clinton la mostró tambaleándose y siendo ayudada a subir a una furgoneta. [ 206 ] Esa misma noche, Clinton aseguró a los periodistas que se sentía "muy bien". [ 207 ] Tras declarar inicialmente que Clinton se había acalorado durante el evento, su campaña añadió posteriormente que le habían diagnosticado neumonía dos días antes. [ 206 ] Los medios criticaron a la campaña de Clinton por la falta de transparencia respecto a su enfermedad. [ 206 ] Clinton canceló un viaje previsto a California debido a su enfermedad. El episodio reavivó el interés público en las preguntas sobre la salud de Clinton. [ 207 ]
Por otro lado, el 7 de octubre, The Washington Post publicó un video y un audio que lo acompañaba en el que Trump se refería obscenamente a las mujeres en una conversación de 2005 con Billy Bush mientras se preparaban para filmar un episodio de Access Hollywood . En la grabación, Trump describió sus intentos de iniciar una relación sexual con una mujer casada y agregó que las mujeres permitirían que celebridades masculinas les manosearan los genitales (Trump usó la frase "agárralas por el coño"). El audio fue recibido con una reacción de incredulidad y disgusto por parte de los medios. [ 208 ] [ 209 ] [ 210 ] Tras la revelación, la campaña de Trump emitió una disculpa, afirmando que el video era de una conversación privada de "hace muchos años". [ 211 ] El incidente fue condenado por numerosos republicanos prominentes como Reince Priebus , Mitt Romney , John Kasich , Jeb Bush [ 212 ] y el Presidente de la Cámara de Representantes Paul Ryan . [ 213 ] Muchos creían que el video había arruinado las posibilidades de Trump de ser elegido. Para el 8 de octubre, varias docenas de republicanos habían pedido a Trump que se retirara de la campaña y dejara que Pence y Condoleezza Rice encabezaran la candidatura. [ 214 ] Trump insistió en que nunca se retiraría, pero se disculpó por sus comentarios. [ 215 ] [ 216 ]
Trump también hizo declaraciones fuertes y controvertidas hacia los musulmanes y el islam durante la campaña, diciendo: "Creo que el islam nos odia". [ 217 ] Fue criticado y también apoyado por su declaración en un mitin donde afirmó: "Donald J. Trump está pidiendo un cierre total y completo de la entrada de musulmanes a Estados Unidos hasta que los representantes de nuestro país puedan averiguar qué está pasando". [ 218 ] Además, Trump anunció que "investigaría" la vigilancia de las mezquitas y mencionó la posibilidad de perseguir a las familias de terroristas nacionales tras el tiroteo de San Bernardino . [ 219 ] Su fuerte retórica hacia los musulmanes provocó que líderes de ambos partidos condenaran sus declaraciones. Sin embargo, muchos de sus partidarios expresaron su apoyo a su propuesta de prohibición de viajar , a pesar de la reacción negativa. [ 218 ]
A lo largo de la campaña, Trump indicó en entrevistas, discursos y publicaciones en Twitter que se negaría a reconocer el resultado de las elecciones si era derrotado. [ 220 ] [ 221 ] Trump afirmó falsamente que las elecciones estarían amañadas en su contra. [ 222 ] [ 223 ] Durante el último debate presidencial de 2016, Trump se negó a decirle al presentador de Fox News, Chris Wallace, si aceptaría o no los resultados de las elecciones. [ 224 ] El rechazo de los resultados electorales por parte de un candidato importante habría sido sin precedentes en ese momento, ya que ningún candidato presidencial importante se había negado a aceptar el resultado de una elección hasta que Trump lo hizo él mismo en las siguientes elecciones presidenciales de 2020. [ 225 ] [ 226 ]
La continua controversia de las elecciones hizo que los terceros partidos atrajeran la atención de los votantes. El 3 de marzo de 2016, el libertario Gary Johnson se dirigió a la Conferencia de Acción Política Conservadora en Washington, D.C., promocionándose como la opción de un tercer partido para los republicanos anti-Trump. [ 227 ] [ 228 ] A principios de mayo, algunos comentaristas opinaron que Johnson era lo suficientemente moderado como para arrebatar votos tanto a Hillary Clinton como a Donald Trump, quienes eran muy impopulares y polarizantes. [ 229 ] Johnson también comenzó a tener tiempo en la televisión nacional, siendo invitado a ABC News , NBC News , CBS News , CNN , Fox News , MSNBC , Bloomberg y muchas otras cadenas. [ 230 ] En septiembre-octubre de 2016, Johnson sufrió una "serie de tropiezos perjudiciales cuando ha respondido preguntas sobre asuntos exteriores". [ 231 ] [ 232 ] El 8 de septiembre, Johnson, cuando apareció en el programa Morning Joe de MSNBC , fue preguntado por el panelista Mike Barnicle : "¿Qué haría usted, si fuera elegido, con respecto a Alepo ?" (en referencia a una ciudad devastada por la guerra en Siria ). Johnson respondió: "¿Y qué es Alepo?" [ 233 ] Su respuesta provocó una gran atención, en su mayoría negativa. [ 233 ] [ 234 ] Más tarde ese día, Johnson dijo que se había "quedado en blanco" y que sí "entendía la dinámica del conflicto sirio ; hablo de ello todos los días". [ 234 ]
Por otro lado, la candidata del Partido Verde, Jill Stein, afirmó que los partidos Demócrata y Republicano son "dos partidos corporativos" que han convergido en uno solo. [ 235 ] Preocupada por el auge de la extrema derecha a nivel internacional y la tendencia hacia el neoliberalismo dentro del Partido Demócrata, declaró: "La respuesta al neofascismo es detener el neoliberalismo. Poner a otro Clinton en la Casa Blanca avivará las llamas de este extremismo de derecha". [ 236 ] [ 237 ]
En respuesta al creciente apoyo a Johnson en las encuestas, la campaña de Clinton y sus aliados demócratas intensificaron sus críticas contra Johnson en septiembre de 2016, advirtiendo que "un voto por un tercer partido es un voto por Donald Trump" y movilizando al senador Bernie Sanders (antiguo rival de Clinton en las primarias, quien la apoyó en las elecciones generales) para ganarse a los votantes que pudieran estar considerando votar por Johnson o por Stein. [ 238 ]
El 28 de octubre, once días antes de las elecciones, el director del FBI, James Comey, informó al Congreso que el FBI estaba analizando correos electrónicos adicionales de Clinton obtenidos durante su investigación de un caso no relacionado . [ 239 ] [ 240 ] El 6 de noviembre, notificó al Congreso que los nuevos correos electrónicos no cambiaban la conclusión anterior del FBI. [ 241 ] [ 242 ] En la semana siguiente a la "Carta de Comey" del 28 de octubre, la ventaja de Clinton se redujo en 3 puntos porcentuales, lo que llevó a algunos comentaristas, incluida la propia Clinton, a concluir que esta carta le costó las elecciones, [ 243 ] [ 244 ] [ 245 ] aunque existen opiniones disidentes. [ 244 ]
Acceso a la boleta electoral
- Los candidatos en negrita figuraban en las papeletas que representaban 270 votos electorales, sin necesidad de contar con estados donde se pudiera escribir un voto por escrito.
- Todos los demás candidatos figuraban en las papeletas de menos de 25 estados, pero tenían acceso al voto por escrito en más de 270.
convenciones de partido
Partido Republicano
Partido Demócrata
- Del 25 al 28 de julio: La Convención Nacional Demócrata se celebró en Filadelfia , Pensilvania. [ 249 ]
Partido Libertario
- Del 26 al 30 de mayo: Se celebró la Convención Nacional Libertaria en Orlando , Florida. [ 250 ] [ 251 ]
Partido Verde
Partido de la Constitución
- Del 13 al 16 de abril: Se celebró la Convención Nacional del Partido de la Constitución en Salt Lake City , Utah. [ 254 ]
financiación de campañas
Wall Street gastó la cifra récord de 2.000 millones de dólares intentando influir en las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos de 2016. [ 255 ] [ 256 ]
La siguiente tabla ofrece una visión general del dinero utilizado en la campaña, según se informó a la Comisión Federal Electoral (FEC) y se publicó en septiembre de 2016. Los grupos externos son comités de gasto independiente , también llamados PAC y SuperPAC . Las fuentes de las cifras son la FEC y OpenSecrets . [ 257 ] Algunos totales de gasto no están disponibles debido a retiros antes de la fecha límite de la FEC. A septiembre de 2016 Diez candidatos con acceso a la boleta electoral habían presentado informes financieros ante la FEC.
- ↑ Deuda contraída con el comité
Derechos de voto
Las elecciones presidenciales de 2016 fueron las primeras en 50 años sin todas las protecciones de la Ley de Derechos Electorales original de 1965. [ 272 ] Catorce estados tenían nuevas restricciones al voto , incluidos estados indecisos como Virginia y Wisconsin. [ 273 ] [ 274 ] [ 275 ] [ 276 ] [ 277 ]
Administración electoral
Entre los estados que ofrecieron votación anticipada presencial a todos los votantes en 2016, el 27 por ciento de todos los votos se emitieron de forma anticipada presencial. En los estados donde el voto por correo estuvo disponible para todos los votantes, el 34 por ciento de todos los votos se emitieron por correo. A nivel nacional, un total del 40 por ciento de los votos se emitieron antes del día de las elecciones en las elecciones generales de 2016. [ 278 ]
Respaldos de periódicos
Clinton fue respaldada por los consejos editoriales de The New York Times , [ 279 ] Los Angeles Times , [ 280 ] Houston Chronicle , [ 281 ] San Jose Mercury News , [ 282 ] Chicago Sun-Times [ 283 ] y New York Daily News . [ 284 ] Varios periódicos que respaldaron a Clinton, como el Houston Chronicle , [ 281 ] The Dallas Morning News , [ 285 ] The San Diego Union-Tribune , [ 286 ] The Columbus Dispatch [ 287 ] y The Arizona Republic , [ 288 ] respaldaron a su primer candidato demócrata en muchas décadas. The Atlantic , que ha estado en circulación desde 1857, le dio a Clinton su tercer respaldo (después de Abraham Lincoln y Lyndon Johnson ). [ 289 ]
Trump, quien criticaba frecuentemente a los principales medios de comunicación , no fue respaldado por la gran mayoría de los periódicos. [ 290 ] [ 291 ] El Las Vegas Review-Journal , [ 292 ] El Florida Times-Union , [ 293 ] y el tabloide National Enquirer fueron sus partidarios más destacados. [ 294 ] USA Today , que no había respaldado a ningún candidato desde su fundación en 1982, rompió la tradición al emitir un respaldo en contra de Trump, declarándolo "no apto para la presidencia". [ 295 ] [ 296 ]
Gary Johnson recibió el respaldo de varios periódicos diarios importantes, incluidos el Chicago Tribune , [ 297 ] y el Richmond Times-Dispatch . [ 298 ] Otros periódicos tradicionalmente republicanos, incluidos el New Hampshire Union Leader , que había respaldado al candidato republicano en todas las elecciones durante los últimos 100 años, [ 299 ] y The Detroit News , que no había respaldado a un no republicano en sus 143 años, [ 300 ] respaldaron a Gary Johnson.
Expresiones, frases y declaraciones destacadas
Por Trump y los republicanos:
- " Porque estarías en la cárcel ": Comentario improvisado de Donald Trump durante el segundo debate presidencial, en respuesta a la afirmación de Clinton de que era "una suerte que alguien con el temperamento de Donald Trump no esté a cargo de la ley en nuestro país". [ 301 ]
- " Bigly ": Una palabra utilizada por Donald Trump, sobre todo durante el primer debate presidencial . [ 302 ] Trump afirma que dijo: "Voy a bajar los impuestos a lo grande, y ustedes van a subir los impuestos a lo grande", pero que muchos lo entendieron mal como " bigly" . [ 303 ]
- " Construyan el muro ": Un cántico utilizado en muchos mítines de la campaña de Trump, y la correspondiente promesa de Donald Trump del muro fronterizo con México . [ 302 ]
- « Drenar el pantano »: una frase que Donald Trump utilizó al final de la campaña para describir lo que se necesita hacer para solucionar los problemas del gobierno federal. Trump reconoció que le habían sugerido la frase y que inicialmente se mostró escéptico sobre su uso. [ 304 ]
- " Agárralas por el coño " y " cuando eres una estrella, te dejan hacerlo ": un comentario hecho por Trump durante una entrevista entre bastidores en 2005 con el presentador Billy Bush en Access Hollywood de NBCUniversal , que se emitió durante la campaña.
- " Me gustan las personas que no fueron capturadas ": la crítica de Donald Trump al senador John McCain , quien fue prisionero de guerra de Vietnam del Norte durante la Guerra de Vietnam . [ 305 ] [ 306 ]
- « ¡Enciérrenla !»: Un cántico utilizado por primera vez en la convención republicana para afirmar que Hillary Clinton era culpable de un delito. El cántico se utilizó posteriormente en muchos mítines de la campaña de Trump e incluso contra otros políticos críticos con Trump, como la gobernadora de Michigan Gretchen Whitmer [ 307 ] [ 308 ] y (como «¡Enciérrenlo!») contra el presidente Joe Biden . [ 309 ] La frase también se usaría en las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos de 2024 por los opositores de Trump en referencia a sus acusaciones .
- " Hagamos que Estados Unidos vuelva a ser grande ": el eslogan de campaña de Donald Trump.
- " México lo pagará ": la promesa de campaña de Trump de que, si es elegido, construirá un muro en la frontera entre Estados Unidos y México , con México financiando el proyecto. [ 310 ] [ 311 ]
- Apodos utilizados por Trump para ridiculizar a sus oponentes : Estos incluyen "Hillary la Corrupta", "El Pequeño Marco", "Jeb el de Baja Energía" y "Ted el Mentiroso".
- " Rusia, si me estás escuchando ": Utilizada por Donald Trump para invitar a Rusia a "encontrar los 30.000 correos electrónicos que faltan" (de Hillary Clinton) durante una conferencia de prensa en julio de 2016. [ 312 ]
- «¡ Qué mujer tan desagradable !»: la respuesta de Donald Trump a Hillary Clinton después de que ella dijera que su propuesta de aumento en las contribuciones a la Seguridad Social también incluiría las contribuciones de Trump a la Seguridad Social, «suponiendo que no pueda encontrar la manera de librarse de ello». [ 302 ] Posteriormente reapropiada por los partidarios de Clinton [ 313 ] [ 314 ] [ 315 ] y las feministas liberales . [ 316 ] [ 317 ] [ 318 ]
- « No envían a los mejores... Traen drogas. Traen delincuencia. Son violadores. Y algunos, supongo, son buenas personas »: la controvertida descripción que Donald Trump hizo de quienes cruzaban la frontera entre México y Estados Unidos durante el lanzamiento de su campaña en junio de 2015. [ 319 ]
- " ¿Qué demonios tienen que perder? ": Dicho por Donald Trump a los afroamericanos de los barrios marginales en mítines que comenzaron el 19 de agosto de 2016. [ 320 ] [ 321 ]
Por Clinton y los demócratas:
- " Cesta de deplorables ": una frase controvertida acuñada por Hillary Clinton para describir a la mitad de quienes apoyan a Trump.
- " Estoy con ella ": el eslogan no oficial de la campaña de Clinton ("Más fuertes juntos" era el eslogan oficial). [ 322 ]
- « ¿Con un paño o algo así? »: Dicho por Hillary Clinton en respuesta a la pregunta de si « borraba » sus correos electrónicos durante una conferencia de prensa en agosto de 2015. [ 305 ]
- «¿ Por qué no tengo 50 puntos de ventaja? »: Pregunta retórica formulada por Hillary Clinton durante un discurso en vídeo dirigido al Sindicato Internacional de Trabajadores de América del Norte el 21 de septiembre de 2016, que posteriormente fue convertida en anuncio de oposición por la campaña de Trump. [ 323 ] [ 324 ]
- « Cuando ellos bajan, nosotros subimos »: Dicho por la entonces primera dama Michelle Obama durante su discurso en la convención demócrata . [ 302 ] Posteriormente, Eric Holder invirtió esta idea . [ 325 ]
- " Siente a Bernie ": Una frase coreada por los partidarios de la campaña de Bernie Sanders que fue adoptada oficialmente por su campaña. [ 326 ]
- " Pokémon Go a las urnas ": Una frase a menudo ridiculizada acuñada por Hillary Clinton para animar a los jóvenes a ir a votar. [ 327 ]
Por otros:
- «¿ Qué es Alepo? »: Dicho por Gary Johnson, candidato del Partido Libertario , al ser interrogado sobre la guerra civil siria. Se considera que este comentario fue el principal responsable del descarrilamiento de la campaña de Johnson, que en ese momento contaba con un apoyo de dos dígitos en las encuestas. [ 328 ]
Debates
Elecciones primarias
Elecciones generales
La Comisión de Debates Presidenciales (CPD), una organización sin fines de lucro, organizó debates entre los candidatos a presidente y vicepresidente que cumplían con los requisitos. Según el sitio web de la comisión, para poder participar en los debates previstos, "además de ser constitucionalmente elegibles, los candidatos deben aparecer en un número suficiente de boletas electorales estatales para tener una probabilidad matemática de obtener la mayoría de los votos en el Colegio Electoral, y contar con un nivel de apoyo de al menos el 15 por ciento del electorado nacional, según lo determinado por cinco organizaciones nacionales de encuestas de opinión pública seleccionadas, utilizando el promedio de los resultados más recientes publicados por dichas organizaciones al momento de la determinación". [ 329 ]
Las tres sedes ( Universidad de Hofstra , Universidad de Washington en San Luis , Universidad de Nevada, Las Vegas ) elegidas para albergar los debates presidenciales, y la sede ( Universidad de Longwood ) seleccionada para albergar el debate vicepresidencial, se anunciaron en septiembre de 2015. La sede del primer debate se había designado originalmente como la Universidad Estatal de Wright en Dayton, Ohio ; sin embargo, debido al aumento de los costos y a las preocupaciones de seguridad, el debate se trasladó a la Universidad de Hofstra en Hempstead, Nueva York . [ 330 ]
El 19 de agosto, Kellyanne Conway , jefa de campaña de Trump, confirmó que Trump participaría en una serie de tres debates. [ 331 ] [ 332 ] [ 333 ] [ 334 ] Trump se había quejado de que dos de los debates programados, uno el 26 de septiembre y el otro el 9 de octubre, tendrían que competir por espectadores con los partidos de la Liga Nacional de Fútbol Americano , haciendo referencia a quejas similares hechas con respecto a las fechas con bajas calificaciones esperadas durante los debates presidenciales del Partido Demócrata . [ 335 ]
También hubo debates entre candidatos independientes.
Cronología
Resultados

La noche de las elecciones y el día siguiente.

Los medios de comunicación y los expertos electorales se sorprendieron por la victoria de Trump en el Colegio Electoral. En vísperas de la votación, la firma de apuestas Spreadex daba a Clinton una ventaja de 307-322 en el Colegio Electoral frente a los 216-231 de Trump. [ 337 ] Las encuestas finales mostraron una ventaja para Clinton, y al final ella recibió más votos. [ 338 ] El propio Trump esperaba, según las encuestas, perder las elecciones, y alquiló un pequeño salón de hotel para dar un breve discurso de concesión, comentando más tarde: "Dije que si vamos a perder no quiero un gran salón de baile". [ 339 ] Trump tuvo un desempeño sorprendentemente bueno en todos los estados clave , especialmente en Florida , Iowa , Ohio y Carolina del Norte . Incluso los estados del Cinturón del Óxido de tendencia demócrata, como Michigan , Pensilvania y Wisconsin, fueron ganados por un estrecho margen por Trump. [ 340 ]
Según los autores de Shattered: Inside Hillary Clinton's Doomed Campaign , la Casa Blanca había concluido a última hora del martes que Trump ganaría las elecciones. El director político de Obama, David Simas, llamó al jefe de campaña de Clinton, Robby Mook, para persuadirla de que reconociera la derrota, sin éxito. Obama llamó entonces directamente a Clinton, citando la importancia de la continuidad del gobierno, para pedirle que reconociera públicamente la victoria de Trump. [ 341 ] Creyendo que Clinton aún no estaba dispuesta a reconocer la derrota, el presidente llamó entonces a su jefe de campaña, John Podesta , pero probablemente la llamada a Clinton ya la había convencido. [ 342 ]
La Associated Press declaró a Trump ganador en Pensilvania a la 1:35 a. m. (hora del este), otorgándole 267 votos electorales. A las 2:01 a. m. (hora del este), ya había declarado a Trump ganador en los segundos distritos congresionales de Maine y Nebraska, alcanzando así los 269 votos electorales, lo que imposibilitaba que Clinton llegara a los 270. Un minuto después, John Podesta anunció en la fiesta de celebración de Hillary Clinton en Nueva York que el resultado de la elección era demasiado ajustado para declarar un ganador. A las 2:29 a. m. (hora del este), la Associated Press declaró a Trump ganador en Wisconsin, otorgándole la victoria en la elección, con 279 votos electorales. A las 2:37 a. m. (hora del este), Clinton llamó a Trump para reconocer su derrota. [ 343 ] [ 344 ]
El miércoles por la mañana a las 2:30 a. m. EST, se informó que Trump había obtenido los 10 votos electorales de Wisconsin, lo que le dio la mayoría de los 538 electores del Colegio Electoral , suficientes para convertirlo en el presidente electo de los Estados Unidos , [ 345 ] y Trump pronunció su discurso de victoria a las 2:50 a. m. EST. [ 345 ] Más tarde ese día, Clinton pidió a sus seguidores que aceptaran el resultado y expresó su esperanza de que Trump fuera "un presidente exitoso para todos los estadounidenses". [ 346 ] En su discurso, Trump hizo un llamado a la unidad, diciendo "es hora de que nos unamos como un solo pueblo unido", y elogió a Clinton como alguien a quien se le debía "una gran deuda de gratitud por su servicio a nuestro país". [ 347 ]
Análisis estadístico
Las elecciones de 2016 fueron las quintas y más recientes elecciones presidenciales en las que el candidato ganador perdió el voto popular . [ 2 ] [ 4 ] Seis estados más una parte de Maine que Obama ganó en 2012 cambiaron a Trump (votos del Colegio Electoral entre paréntesis): Florida (29), Pensilvania (20), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), Wisconsin (10), Iowa (6) y el segundo distrito congresional de Maine (1). Inicialmente, Trump ganó exactamente 100 votos más del Colegio Electoral que Mitt Romney en 2012, con dos perdidos por electores infieles en el recuento final. Treinta y nueve estados se inclinaron más hacia el Partido Republicano en comparación con las elecciones presidenciales anteriores, mientras que once estados y el Distrito de Columbia se inclinaron más hacia el Partido Demócrata. [ 246 ] Según las estimaciones de la Oficina del Censo de los Estados Unidos sobre la población en edad de votar (VAP), la participación de los votantes que emitieron su voto para presidente fue casi un 1% mayor que en 2012. Al examinar la participación general en las elecciones de 2016 , Michael McDonald de la Universidad de Florida estimó que 138,8 millones de estadounidenses emitieron su voto. Considerando una VAP de 250,6 millones de personas y una población elegible para votar (VEP) de 230,6 millones de personas, esto representa una tasa de participación del 55,4% de VAP y del 60,2% de VEP. [ 350 ] Según esta estimación, la participación electoral aumentó en comparación con 2012 (54,1% VAP) pero disminuyó en comparación con 2008 (57,4% VAP). Un informe de la FEC sobre las elecciones registró un total oficial de 136,7 millones de votos emitidos para presidente, más que en cualquier elección anterior. [ 1 ]
Al perder Nueva York, Trump se convirtió en el cuarto y más reciente candidato victorioso en perder su estado natal, lo que también ocurrió en 1844, 1916 y 1968. Además, junto con James Polk en 1844, Trump es uno de los dos candidatos presidenciales victoriosos que ganaron sin su estado natal ni su estado de nacimiento (en este caso, ambos fueron Nueva York). El científico de datos Hamdan Azhar señaló las paradojas del resultado de 2016, diciendo que "la principal [de ellas] fue la discrepancia entre el voto popular, que Hillary Clinton ganó por 2,8 millones de votos, y el colegio electoral, donde Trump ganó 304-227". Dijo que Trump superó los resultados de Mitt Romney en 2012, mientras que Clinton apenas igualó los totales de Barack Obama en 2012. Hamdan también dijo que Trump fue "el candidato republicano con mayor número de votos de la historia", superando los 62,04 millones de votos de George W. Bush en 2004, aunque ninguno alcanzó los 65,9 millones de Clinton ni los 69,5 millones de votos de Obama en 2008. Concluyó, con la ayuda de The Cook Political Report , que la elección no dependió del amplio margen de 2,8 millones de votos de Clinton sobre Trump, sino de unos 78.000 votos de solo tres condados de Wisconsin, Pensilvania y Michigan. [ 351 ] Clinton fue la primera ex Secretaria de Estado en ser nominada por un partido político importante desde James G. Blaine en 1884 .
Esta es la primera elección desde 1988 en la que el candidato republicano ganó los estados de Michigan y Pensilvania, y la primera desde 1984 en la que ganó Wisconsin. Fue la primera vez desde 1988 que el candidato republicano ganó el segundo distrito congresional de Maine y la primera vez desde la victoria de George W. Bush en Nuevo Hampshire en 2000 que obtuvo votos electorales en el noreste. Clinton ganó Nuevo Hampshire por un estrecho margen del 0,37% (2736 votos).
Esta fue la primera vez que Maine dividió sus votos electorales desde que comenzó a otorgarlos en base a distritos congresionales en 1972, y la primera vez que el estado dividió su voto electoral desde 1828. La elección de 2016 marcó la octava elección presidencial consecutiva en la que el nominado victorioso del partido mayoritario no recibió una mayoría de voto popular por un margen de dos dígitos sobre el nominado o nominados perdedores del partido mayoritario, con la secuencia de elecciones presidenciales de 1988 a 2016 superando la secuencia de 1876 a 1900 para convertirse en la secuencia más larga de tales elecciones presidenciales en la historia de los Estados Unidos. [ 352 ] [ 353 ] También fue la sexta elección presidencial en la que ambos candidatos de los partidos mayores estaban registrados en el mismo estado de origen; los otros han sido en 1860 , 1904 , 1920 , 1940 y 1944 . También fue la primera elección desde 1928 que los republicanos ganaron sin tener a Richard Nixon ni a ninguno de los Bush en la candidatura.
Trump fue el primer presidente sin experiencia previa en el servicio público ni en el ejército. Esta elección fue la primera desde 1908 en la que ninguno de los candidatos ocupaba un cargo público. Esta fue la primera elección desde 1980 en la que un republicano fue elegido sin ganar en todos los antiguos estados confederados, ya que Trump perdió Virginia en esta elección. [ b ] Esta fue también la primera elección presidencial desde 1876 en la que Virginia votó por el Partido Demócrata mientras que Florida votó por el Partido Republicano, lo que ha ocurrido en todas las elecciones presidenciales posteriores. Aunque tanto Virginia como Florida votaron dos veces por el republicano George W. Bush y el demócrata Barack Obama, Virginia se convirtió en un estado demócrata mientras que Florida se convirtió en un estado republicano . Florida apoyó a Trump incluso cuando perdió el voto electoral en 2020, y Virginia apoyó a Kamala Harris a pesar de que perdió el voto popular en 2024.
Trump se convirtió en el primer republicano en obtener más de 300 votos electorales desde las elecciones de 1988. Esta fue la primera vez desde 1976 que un candidato presidencial republicano perdió un voto prometido por un elector infiel y, además, fue la primera vez desde 1972 que el candidato presidencial ganador perdió un voto electoral debido a electores infieles. Con acceso a la boleta electoral de todo el electorado nacional, Johnson recibió casi 4.5 millones de votos (3.27%), el porcentaje de votos más alto a nivel nacional para un candidato de un tercer partido desde Ross Perot en 1996, mientras que Stein recibió casi 1.45 millones de votos (1.06%), el más alto para un nominado del Partido Verde desde Ralph Nader en 2000. Johnson recibió el porcentaje de votos más alto jamás obtenido por un nominado libertario, superando el resultado de Ed Clark en 1980. [ 354 ]
El candidato independiente Evan McMullin, que figuró en las papeletas de once estados, recibió más de 732.000 votos (0,53%). Obtuvo el 21,4% de los votos en su estado natal de Utah, el porcentaje más alto para un candidato de un tercer partido en cualquier estado desde 1992. A pesar de retirarse de la contienda tras su derrota en las primarias demócratas, el senador Bernie Sanders recibió el 5,7% de los votos en su estado natal de Vermont, el porcentaje más alto para una campaña de voto por escrito para un candidato presidencial en la historia de Estados Unidos. Johnson y McMullin fueron los primeros candidatos de terceros partidos desde Nader en obtener al menos el 5% de los votos en uno o más estados, con Johnson superando la marca en nueve estados y McMullin en dos. [ 354 ] A los 70 años, Trump fue el candidato no titular de mayor edad en ganar una elección presidencial, superando el récord de Ronald Reagan en 1980, quien fue elegido por primera vez a los 69 años. Cuatro años después, en 2020, Biden superó este récord a los 77 años, al igual que Trump nuevamente en 2024 a los 78 años. De los 3153 condados/distritos/ciudades independientes que presentaron resultados, Trump ganó la mayoría de los votos populares en 2649 (84,02%), mientras que Clinton obtuvo 504 (15,98%). [ 355 ]
Resultados electorales
Resultados por estado
La tabla a continuación muestra los recuentos oficiales de votos según el método de votación del Colegio Electoral de cada estado. La fuente de los resultados de todos los estados es el informe oficial de la Comisión Federal Electoral. [ 2 ] La columna etiquetada como "Margen" muestra el margen de victoria de Trump sobre Clinton (el margen es negativo para cada estado que ganó Clinton). Un total de 29 candidatos presidenciales de terceros partidos e independientes aparecieron en la boleta electoral en al menos un estado. El exgobernador de Nuevo México, Gary Johnson , y la médica Jill Stein repitieron sus roles de 2012 como nominados por el Partido Libertario y el Partido Verde , respectivamente. [ 358 ]
Aparte de Florida y Carolina del Norte , los estados que aseguraron la victoria de Trump están situados en la región de los Grandes Lagos/Cinturón del Óxido. Wisconsin se volvió republicano por primera vez desde 1984 , mientras que Pensilvania y Michigan se volvieron republicanos por primera vez desde 1988. [ 359 ] [ 360 ] [ 361 ] Stein solicitó un recuento en Wisconsin, Michigan y Pensilvania. La campaña de Clinton se comprometió a participar en los esfuerzos de recuento del Partido Verde, mientras que los partidarios de Trump los impugnaron en los tribunales. [ 362 ] [ 363 ] [ 364 ] Mientras tanto, el candidato presidencial del Partido Delta Americano / Partido Reformista , Rocky De La Fuente, solicitó y obtuvo un recuento parcial en Nevada . [ 365 ] Según un estudio de 2021 en Science Advances , la conversión de votantes que votaron por Obama en 2012 a Trump en 2016 contribuyó a los cambios republicanos en Ohio, Michigan y Pensilvania. [ 366 ]
Dos estados (Maine [ h ] y Nebraska) permiten que sus votos electorales se dividan entre los candidatos por distritos congresionales. El ganador dentro de cada distrito congresional obtiene un voto electoral para el distrito. El ganador del voto estatal obtiene dos votos electorales adicionales. [ 423 ] [ 424 ] Los resultados provienen de The New York Times . [ 425 ]
Estados y distritos electorales que pasaron de demócratas a republicanos.
Estados clave

La mayoría de los medios anunciaron el inicio de la carrera presidencial unos veinte meses antes del día de las elecciones . Poco después de que los primeros aspirantes declararan su candidatura, Larry Sabato mencionó a Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Nuevo Hampshire, Florida, Nevada y Ohio como los siete estados con más probabilidades de disputarse en las elecciones generales . Tras la victoria de Donald Trump y su nominación presidencial republicana, muchos analistas consideraron que los principales lugares de campaña podrían ser diferentes de lo previsto inicialmente. [ 426 ]
Se pensaba que los estados del Cinturón del Óxido, como Pensilvania , Wisconsin e incluso Michigan, estaban en juego con Trump como candidato, mientras que se esperaba que los estados con grandes poblaciones minoritarias, como Colorado y Virginia , se inclinaran hacia Clinton. [ 427 ] Sin embargo, para el período de convenciones y debates, no parecía que los estados del Cinturón del Óxido pudieran darle la victoria a Trump, ya que muchos de ellos eran considerados parte del " muro azul " de estados con tendencia demócrata. El cortejo de Trump al voto polaco-estadounidense , un número considerable de los cuales eran demócratas de Reagan , se ha citado como la causa de la pérdida del Cinturón del Óxido por parte del candidato demócrata. [ 428 ] Según Politico [ 429 ] y FiveThirtyEight, su camino hacia la victoria pasó por estados como Florida, Carolina del Norte, Nevada, Nuevo Hampshire y posiblemente Colorado. [ 430 ] [ 431 ] [ 432 ] [ 433 ]
Las primeras encuestas indicaron una contienda más reñida de lo habitual en antiguos bastiones demócratas como Washington , Delaware , Nueva Jersey , Connecticut , Maine (por los dos votos electorales estatales) y Nuevo México . [ 434 ] [ 435 ] [ 436 ]
Durante la temporada de elecciones primarias se desarrolló un consenso entre los analistas políticos respecto a los estados indecisos. [ 437 ] Según los resultados de las elecciones presidenciales de 2004 a 2012 , los partidos Demócrata y Republicano generalmente comenzaban con un recuento seguro de votos electorales de entre 150 y 200. [ 438 ] [ 427 ] Sin embargo, los márgenes necesarios para constituir un estado indeciso son imprecisos y pueden variar entre grupos de analistas. [ 439 ] [ 440 ] Se pensaba que los estados de tendencia izquierdista en el Cinturón del Óxido podrían volverse más conservadores , ya que Trump tenía un fuerte atractivo entre muchos trabajadores manuales . [ 441 ] Representan una gran parte de la población estadounidense y fueron un factor importante en la eventual nominación de Trump . La campaña de primarias de Trump fue impulsada por victorias en estados demócratas, y sus partidarios a menudo no se identificaban como republicanos. [ 442 ]
Los informes de los medios indicaron que ambos candidatos planeaban concentrarse en Florida, Pensilvania, Ohio y Carolina del Norte. [ 443 ] [ 444 ] Entre los estados de tendencia republicana, los posibles objetivos demócratas incluían el segundo distrito congresional de Nebraska , Georgia y Arizona. [ 445 ] Las encuestas relativamente bajas de Trump en algunos estados tradicionalmente republicanos, como Utah, plantearon la posibilidad de que pudieran votar por Clinton, a pesar de las fáciles victorias allí de los recientes nominados republicanos . [ 446 ] Sin embargo, muchos analistas afirmaron que estos estados aún no eran destinos viables para los demócratas. [ 447 ] [ 448 ] Varios sitios y personas publican predicciones electorales. Estas generalmente califican la contienda por la probabilidad de que cada partido gane un estado. [ 449 ] La etiqueta "indeciso" se usa generalmente para indicar que ningún partido tiene ventaja, "ligeramente" para indicar que un partido tiene una ligera ventaja, "probable" para indicar que un partido tiene una ventaja clara pero no abrumadora, y "seguro" para indicar que un partido tiene una ventaja que no se puede superar. [ 450 ]
A medida que se establecieron los parámetros de la contienda, los analistas convergieron en una lista más reducida de estados en disputa, que eran relativamente similares a los de elecciones recientes. El 7 de noviembre, el Cook Political Report categorizó a Arizona, Colorado , Florida , Iowa , Michigan, Nevada , Nuevo Hampshire , Carolina del Norte, Ohio , Pensilvania y Wisconsin como estados con contiendas reñidas. Además, un distrito de cada uno de Maine y Nebraska se consideraron como un lanzamiento de moneda. [ 451 ] Mientras tanto, FiveThirtyEight enumeró veintidós estados como potencialmente competitivos aproximadamente un mes antes de las elecciones : los dos votos electorales generales de Maine, Nuevo México, Minnesota, Michigan, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Pensilvania, Nuevo Hampshire, Nevada, Florida, Carolina del Norte, Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, Georgia, Alaska, Carolina del Sur, Texas, Indiana , Misuri y Utah, así como el segundo distrito congresional de Maine y el segundo distrito congresional de Nebraska . [ 452 ] Nate Silver , editor jefe de la publicación, posteriormente eliminó a Texas, Carolina del Sur, Misuri e Indiana de la lista después de que la contienda se estrechara significativamente. [ 453 ] Estas conclusiones fueron respaldadas por modelos como el Princeton Elections Consortium , el New York Times Upshot y las evaluaciones de expertos de Sabato's Crystal Ball y el Cook Political Report . [ 454 ] [ 455 ] [ 456 ] [ 457 ]
Hillary Clinton ganó estados como Nuevo México por menos de 10 puntos porcentuales. [ 458 ] Entre los estados donde los candidatos terminaron con un margen de siete por ciento, Clinton ganó Virginia (13 votos electorales), Colorado (9), Maine (2), Minnesota (10) y Nuevo Hampshire (4). Por otro lado, Trump ganó Michigan (16), Pensilvania (20), Wisconsin (10), Florida (29), Carolina del Norte (15), Arizona (11), el segundo distrito de Nebraska (1) y Georgia (16). Estados ganados por Obama en 2012 , como Ohio (18), Iowa (6) y el segundo distrito de Maine (1), también fueron ganados por Trump. El ajustado resultado en Maine no fue esperado por la mayoría de los comentaristas, ni tampoco la victoria de Trump por más de 10 puntos en el segundo distrito y sus disparidades. [ 459 ] [ 460 ] [ 461 ]
El drástico giro de los estados del Medio Oeste hacia Trump se contrastó en los medios con el movimiento relativo de los estados del Sur hacia los demócratas . [ 462 ] Por ejemplo, antiguos bastiones demócratas como Minnesota y Maine se inclinaron hacia el Partido Republicano , aunque siguieron votando por los demócratas, si bien por márgenes más pequeños. Mientras tanto, Iowa votó más por los republicanos que Texas, Georgia fue más demócrata que Ohio, y el margen de victoria de Trump fue mayor en Carolina del Norte que en Arizona. [ 463 ] [ 464 ]
Las victorias menores de Trump en Alaska y Utah también sorprendieron a algunos expertos. Dakota del Norte tuvo el mayor giro a favor de Trump en 2016, mientras que Utah tuvo el mayor giro a favor de Clinton. [ 465 ]
Estados cerrados
Estados donde el margen de victoria fue inferior al 1% (50 votos electorales; 46 ganados por Trump, 4 por Clinton):
- Michigan, 0,23% (10.704 votos) – 16 votos electorales
- Nuevo Hampshire, 0,37% (2.736 votos) – 4 votos electorales
- Pensilvania, 0,72% (44.292 votos) – 20 votos electorales (estado decisivo, incluyendo dos electores republicanos infieles) [ 466 ]
- Wisconsin, 0,77% (22.748 votos) – 10 votos electorales (estado decisivo, excluyendo a los dos electores republicanos infieles) [ 466 ]
Estados/distritos donde el margen de victoria estuvo entre el 1% y el 5% (83 votos electorales; 56 ganados por Trump, 27 por Clinton):
- Florida, 1,20% (112.911 votos) – 29 votos electorales
- Minnesota, 1,52% (44.765 votos) – 10 votos electorales
- Segundo distrito congresional de Nebraska, 2,24% (6.534 votos) – 1 voto electoral
- Nevada, 2,42% (27.202 votos) – 6 votos electorales
- Maine, 2,96% (22.142 votos) – 2 votos electorales
- Arizona, 3,54% (91.234 votos) – 11 votos electorales
- Carolina del Norte, 3,66% (173.315 votos) – 15 votos electorales
- Colorado, 4,91% (136.386 votos) – 9 votos electorales
Estados donde el margen de victoria estuvo entre el 5% y el 10% (94 votos electorales; 76 ganados por Trump, 18 por Clinton):
- Georgia, 5,13% (211.141 votos) – 16 votos electorales
- Virginia, 5,32% (212.030 votos) – 13 votos electorales
- Ohio, 8,13% (446.841 votos) – 18 votos electorales
- Nuevo México, 8,22% (65.567 votos) – 5 votos electorales
- Texas, 8,99% (807.179 votos) – 38 votos electorales
- Iowa, 9,41% (147.314 votos) – 6 votos electorales
El color rojo indica los estados o distritos congresionales ganados por el republicano Donald Trump; el azul indica los ganados por la demócrata Hillary Clinton.
Estadísticas del condado
Condados con el mayor porcentaje de votos republicanos: [ 246 ]
- Condado de Roberts, Texas 94,58%
- Condado de King, Texas 93,71%
- Condado de Motley, Texas 92.03%
- Condado de Hayes, Nebraska 91,83%
- Condado de Shackelford, Texas 91,62%
Condados con el mayor porcentaje de votos demócratas:
Mapas
Resultados por estado, sombreados según el porcentaje de votos del candidato ganador.
Resultados por estado, sombreados según el margen de victoria.
Resultados según la distribución de votos entre los estados. El tamaño de cada gráfico circular es proporcional a su número de votos electorales.
Un cartograma discontinuo de las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos de 2016, escalado según su contribución al Colegio Electoral.
Un cartograma discretizado de las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos de 2016 utilizando cuadrados.
Cartograma continuo de las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos de 2016
Un cartograma discretizado de las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos de 2016 utilizando hexágonos.
Resultados por condado. [ i ] El rojo indica los condados que votaron por Trump; el azul indica los condados que votaron por Clinton.
Resultados por condado, [ i ] sombreados según el porcentaje de votos del candidato ganador.
Resultados por condados que cambian de resultado desde las elecciones presidenciales de 2012 hasta las de 2016 [ i ]
Cambio de condado de 2012 a 2016 [ i ]
Resultados de las elecciones por distrito congresional, sombreados según el porcentaje de votos del candidato ganador.
Resultados por condado, sombreados según el porcentaje de votos para Gary Johnson.
Resultados por condado, sombreados según el porcentaje de votos para Jill Stein.
Results by county, shaded according to percentage of the vote for Evan McMullin
Viewership
The 2016 election was highly viewed, setting viewership records on CNN and Fox News. Over 28 million people watched the election on cable television, with 63.99 million viewers including broadcast television. While more highly viewed than 2012 (60.86 million viewers), it was less viewed than 2008 (71.5 million viewers).[467]
Exit poll
Voter demographic data for 2016 were collected by Edison Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, CBS News, MSNBC, CNN, Fox News, and the Associated Press. The voter survey is based on exit polls completed by 24,537 voters leaving 350 voting places throughout the United States on Election Day, in addition to 4,398 telephone interviews with early and absentee voters.[468] Trump's crucial victories in the Midwest were aided in large part by his strong margins among non-collegewhites—while Obama lost those voters by a margin of 10 points in 2012, Clinton lost this group by 20 percent.[23]
The election also represented the first time that Republicans performed better among lower-income whites than among affluent white voters.[469] Clinton however had the majority amongst lower-income Americans overall.
Voters 40 years of age or older (born in 1976 or earlier) were estimated to comprise 64% of the electorate in the exit poll. The Pew Research Center later showed that the Greatest Generation, the Silent Generation, Baby boomers, and Generation X accounted for 155 million of the 224 million eligible voters (or approximately 69%). Baby boomers and Generation X alone comprised 127 million of the eligible voters (or approximately 57%). There was an age gap, with Clinton winning voters under the age of 40, while Trump won voters over the age of 40.[470]
Trump narrowed Clinton's margin compared to Obama by seven points among blacks and African-Americans, eight points among Latinos, and 11 points among Asian-Americans. Meanwhile, Trump increased his lead with non-Hispanic white voters through one percent over Mitt Romney's performance, and American Indians, Alaska Natives, and Pacific Islanders shifted their support towards the Republican candidate using the same relative amount.[471] Additionally, although 74 percent of Muslim voters supported Clinton, Trump nearly doubled his support among those voters compared to Mitt Romney at 13 percent, according to the Council on American–Islamic Relations exit poll.[472]
However, "more convincing data"[473] from the polling firm Latino Decisions indicates that Clinton received a higher share of the Hispanic vote, and Trump a lower share, than the Edison exit polls showed. Using wider, more geographically and linguistically representative sampling, Latino Decisions concluded that Clinton won 79% of Hispanic voters (also an improvement over Obama's share in 2008 and 2012), while Trump won only 18% (lower than previous Republicans such as Romney and McCain).[474] Additionally, the 2016 Cooperative Congressional Election Study found that Clinton's share of the Hispanic vote was one percentage point higher than Obama's in 2012, while Trump's was seven percentage points lower than Romney's.[475]
Similarly, a large, multi-lingual study by the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund found that Clinton won 79% of Asian-American voters, higher than the Edison exit poll showed, while Trump won only 18%, a decrease from McCain's and Romney's numbers.[476] Furthermore, according to the AALDEF's report, Trump received merely 2% of the Muslim-American vote, whereas Clinton received 97%.[477] The low percentage of Muslim votes for Trump may have been influenced by much of his rhetoric during the campaign regarding Muslims and Islam. The issue of islamophobia was demonstrated to be an important political issue for Muslim voters; an ISPU study done in 2016 found that, "...outside the issues of discrimination and Islamophobia there aren't, like, one or two big issues that unite all Muslims".[478]
Election forecasts

Various methods were used to forecast the outcome of the 2016 election.[479] There were many competing election forecast approaches including Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, The Upshot at The New York Times, Daily Kos, Princeton Election Consortium, Cook Political Report, Rothenberg and Gonzales, PollyVote, Sabato's Crystal Ball and Electoral-Vote. These models mostly showed a Democratic advantage since the nominees were confirmed, and were supported by pundits and statisticians, including Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight, Nate Cohn at The New York Times, and Larry Sabato from the Crystal Ball newsletter, who predicted a Democratic victory in competitive presidential races and projected consistent leads in several battleground states around the country.[480] However, FiveThirtyEight's model pointed to the possibility of an Electoral College-popular vote split widening in the final weeks based on Trump's improvement in swing states like Florida or Pennsylvania. This was due to the demographics targeted by Trump's campaign which lived in big numbers there, in addition to Clinton's poor performance in several of those swing states in comparison with Obama's performance in 2012, as well as having a big number of her potential voters in very populated traditionally 'blue' states, but also in some very populated states traditionally 'red', like Texas, which were projected safe for Trump.[481]
Early exit polls generally favored Clinton.[482] After the polls closed and some of the results came in, the forecasts were found to be inaccurate, as Trump performed better in the competitive Midwestern states, such as Iowa, Ohio, and Minnesota, than expected. Three Rust Belt states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan) which were considered to be part of Clinton's firewall, were narrowly won by Trump.[482] Of the states in the Great Lakes region, Clinton won the swing state of Minnesota by one point, as well as traditional Democratic strongholds such as New York and Illinois with populous urban centers. This result stands in contrast to that of 2012, when President Barack Obama won all but Indiana, which he narrowly carried in 2008. This table displays the final polling average published by Real Clear Politics on November 7, the actual electoral margin, and the over-performance by either candidate relative to the polls.
Many pollsters were puzzled by the failure of mainstream forecasting models to predict the outcome of the 2016 election.[499][500] Some journalists compared the 2016 election to the failure of prognosticator Arthur Henning in the "Dewey Defeats Truman" incident from the 1948 presidential election.[501][502]Sean Trende, writing for RealClearPolitics, wrote that many of the polls were accurate, but that the pundits' interpretation of these polls neglected polling error.[503]Nate Silver found that the high number of undecided and third-party voters in the election was neglected in many of these models, and that many of these voters decided to vote for Trump.[504] According to a February 2018 study by Public Opinion Quarterly, the main sources of polling error were "a late swing in vote preference toward Trump and a pervasive failure to adjust for over-representation of college graduates (who favored Clinton)", whereas the share of "shy" Trump voters (who declined to admit their support for Trump to the pollsters) proved to be negligible.[505] Political scientist Lloyd Gruber said, "One of the major casualties of the 2016 election season has been the reputation of political science, a discipline whose practitioners had largely dismissed Donald Trump's chances of gaining the Republican nomination".[506] Trump said that he was surprised, and added "I always used to believe in [polls]. I don't believe them anymore."[339]
FiveThirtyEight's final polls-plus forecast predicted 18 states, plus the second congressional districts of Maine and Nebraska, with an interval of confidence lower than 90%.[507][508] However, every major forecaster, including FiveThirtyEight, The New York Times Upshot, prediction markets aggregator PredictWise, ElectionBettingOdds from Maxim Lott and John Stossel, the DailyKos, the Princeton Election Consortium, the Huffington Post, the Cook Political Report, Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball, and the Rothenberg and Gonzales Report, called every state the same way (although Cook and Rothenberg-Gonzales left two and five states as toss-ups, respectively). The lone exception was Maine's 2nd congressional district. Of the forecasters who published results on the district, the Times gave Trump a 64% chance of winning and PredictWise a 52% chance, FiveThirtyEight gave Clinton a 51% chance of winning in polls-only and 54% in polls-plus, Princeton gave her a 60% chance, Cook labelled it a toss-up, and Sabato leaned it towards Trump.[114] The following table displays the final winning probabilities given by each outlet, along with the final electoral result. The states shown have been identified by Politico,[509]WhipBoard,[510]The New York Times,[511] and the Crystal Ball as battlegrounds.
Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts of the composition of the Electoral College. These forecasts use a variety of factors to estimate the likelihood of each candidate winning the Electoral College electors for that state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:
- "tossup": no advantage
- "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
- "lean" or "leans": slight advantage
- "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
- "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory
Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecasts to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by forecasters Sabato's Crystal Ball, New York Times, Princeton Election Consortium,PredictWise, and FiveThirtyEight.
Post-election events and controversies
Trump's victory, considered unlikely by most forecasts,[512][513][514][515][516] was characterized as an "upset" and as "shocking" by news organizations.[517][518][519][520] Trump himself thought he would lose even as the polls were closing.[521]
Protests
Following the announcement of Trump's election, large protests broke out across the United States with some continuing for several days.[522][523][524][525]
Protesters held up a number of different signs and chanted various shouts including "Not my president" and "We don't accept the president-elect".[526][522] The movement organized on Twitter under the hashtags #Antitrump and #NotMyPresident.[527][528]
High school and college students walked out of classes to protest.[529] At a few protests fires were lit, flags and other items were burned and people yelled derogatory remarks about Trump. Rioters also broke glass at certain locations.[530][531] Celebrities such as Madonna, Cher, and Lady Gaga took part in New York.[532][533][534]Kendrick Lamar's song "Alright" was used repeatedly by protestors, despite the movement receiving no endorsement from Lamar himself.[535][536][537] Some protesters took to blocking freeways in Los Angeles, San Diego, and Portland, Oregon, and were dispersed by police in the early hours of the morning.[538][539] In a number of cities, protesters were dispersed with rubber bullets, pepper spray and bean-bags fired by police.[540][541][542] In New York City, calls were made to continue the protests over the coming days after the election.[543] Los Angeles mayor Eric Garcetti expressed understanding of the protests and praised those who peacefully wanted to make their voices heard.[544]
Vote tampering concerns
After the election, computer scientists, including J. Alex Halderman, the director of the University of Michigan Center for Computer Security and Society, urged the Clinton campaign to request an election recount in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (three swing states where Trump had won narrowly) for the purpose of excluding the possibility that the hacking of electronic voting machines had influenced the recorded outcome.[545][546][547] However, statistician Nate Silver performed a regression analysis which demonstrated that the alleged discrepancy between paper ballots and electronic voting machines "completely disappears once you control for race and education level".[548] On November 25, the Obama administration said the results from November 8 "accurately reflect the will of the American people".[549] The following day, the White House released another statement, saying: "the federal government did not observe any increased level of malicious cyberactivity aimed at disrupting our electoral process on Election Day".[550][551]
In the years following the election, Hillary Clinton has alleged that official maleficence contributed to and may have caused her electoral loss, saying in 2022, "Literally within hours of the polls closing in 2016, we had so much evidence pouring in about voters being turned away in Milwaukee and not being able to vote in Detroit. These states were run by Republicans so there was no way to find out the truth about any of them".[552]
Donald Trump and New Hampshire governor Chris Sununu both complained that liberal voters from Massachusetts were illegally bused into New Hampshire for the 2016 election, and Scott Brown blamed the same phenomenon for losing his senate race in 2014.[553] The New Hampshire Secretary of State and New Hampshire Department of Justice issued a report in 2018 regarding complaints of voters being bused in from Vermont, Maine, and Massachusetts for the 2016 election. They found that in every case, field inspectors were able to determine that the voters were from New Hampshire, though they were riding a bus operated by an out-of-state company (which has its name and address written on the outside of the bus, presumably the source of the confusion).[553] Out of 743,000 votes cast, four were determined to be cast illegally, either because the voters were told to go to the wrong location, or because the voter believed they were able to vote in each town in which they owned property.[553] Out of about 6,000 same-day voter registrations in the state, the report says only 66 voters could not have their residency confirmed (though fraud is not the only explanation for such a failure).[553]
Recount petitions
On November 23, Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein launched a public fundraiser to pay for recounts in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, asserting that the election's outcome had been affected by hacking in those states; Stein did not provide evidence for her claims.[554][555] Changing the outcome of these three states would make Clinton the winner, and this would require showing that fewer than 60,000 votes had been counted for Trump which should have been counted for Clinton. Stein filed for a recount in Wisconsin on November 25,[556] after which Clinton campaign general counsel Marc Elias said their campaign would join Stein's recount efforts in that state and possibly others "in order to ensure the process proceeds in a manner that is fair to all sides".[363][557] Stein subsequently filed for a recount in Pennsylvania on November 28,[558] and in Michigan on November 30.[559] Concurrently, American Delta Party/Reform Party presidential candidate Rocky De La Fuente sought and was granted a partial recount in Nevada that was unrelated to Stein's efforts.[365]
President-elect Donald Trump issued a statement denouncing Stein's Wisconsin recount request saying, "The people have spoken and the election is over". Trump further commented that the recount "is a scam by the Green Party for an election that has already been conceded".[560] The Trump campaign and Republican Party officials moved to block Stein's three recount efforts through state and federal courts.[561][562]
U.S. District Judge Mark Goldsmith ordered a halt to the recount in Michigan on December 7, dissolving a previous temporary restraining order against the Michigan Board of Elections that allowed the recount to continue, stating in his order: "Plaintiffs have not presented evidence of tampering or mistake. Instead, they present speculative claims going to the vulnerability of the voting machinery—but not actual injury".[563] On December 12, U.S. District Judge Paul Diamond rejected an appeal by the Green Party and Jill Stein to force a recount in Pennsylvania, stating that suspicion of a hacked Pennsylvania election "borders on the irrational" and that granting the Green Party's recount bid could "ensure that no Pennsylvania vote counts" given the December 13, federal deadline to certify the vote for the Electoral College.[564] Meanwhile, the Wisconsin recount was allowed to continue as it was nearing completion and had uncovered no significant irregularities.[565]
The recounts in Wisconsin and Nevada were completed on schedule, resulting in only minor changes to vote tallies.[566][567] A partial recount of Michigan ballot found some precinct imbalances in Detroit, which were corrected. A subsequent state audit found no evidence of voter fraud and concluded that the mistakes, which were "almost entirely" caused by poll-worker mistakes attributed to poor training, did not impair "the ability of Detroit residents to cast a ballot and have their vote counted".[568] The overall outcome of the election remained unchanged by the recount efforts.[566][567][569]
Electoral College lobbying
Intense lobbying (in one case involving claims of harassment and death threats)[570] and grass-roots campaigns were directed at various GOP electors of the United States Electoral College[571] to convince a sufficient number of them (37) to not vote for Trump, thus precluding a Trump presidency.[572] Members of the Electoral College themselves started a campaign for other members to "vote their conscience for the good of America" in accordance with Alexander Hamilton's Federalist Paper No. 68.[573][574][575][576] Former candidate Lawrence Lessig and attorney Laurence Tribe established The Electors Trust on December 5 under the aegis of Equal Citizens to provide pro bono legal counsel as well as a secure communications platform for members of the Electoral College who were considering a vote of conscience against Trump.[577]
On December 6, Colorado Secretary of StateWayne W. Williams castigated Democratic electors who had filed a lawsuit in Federal court to have the state law binding them to the popular vote (in their case for Hillary Clinton) overturned.[578]
On December 10, ten electors, in an open letter headed by Christine Pelosi to the Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, demanded an intelligence briefing[579][580] in light of Russian interference in the election to help Trump win the presidency.[581] Fifty-eight additional electors subsequently added their names to the letter,[580] bringing the total to 68 electors from 17 different states.[582] On December 16, the briefing request was denied.[583]
On December 19, several electors voted against their pledged candidates: two against Trump and five against Clinton. A further three electors attempted to vote against Clinton but were replaced or forced to vote again. The 115th United States Congress officially certified the results on January 6, 2017.[584][585]
Faithless electors
In the Electoral College vote on December 19, for the first time since the ratification of the 12th Amendment, multiple faithless electors voted against their pledged qualified presidential candidate.[j] Five Democrats rebelled in Washington and Hawaii, while two Republicans rebelled in Texas.[586] Two Democratic electors, one in Minnesota and one in Colorado, were replaced after voting for Bernie Sanders and John Kasich, respectively.[587][588] Electors in Maine conducted a second vote after one of its members voted for Sanders; the elector then voted for Clinton.[589] Likewise, for the first time since 1896,[k] multiple faithless electors voted against the pledged qualified vice presidential candidate.
- One Clinton elector in Colorado attempted to vote for John Kasich.[590] The single vote was ruled invalid by Colorado state law, the elector was dismissed, and an alternative elector was sworn in who voted for Clinton.[591][588]
- One Clinton elector in Minnesota voted for Bernie Sanders as president and Tulsi Gabbard as vice president; his votes were discarded and he was replaced by an alternate who voted for Clinton.[591]
- One Clinton elector in Maine voted for Bernie Sanders; this vote was invalidated as "improper" and the elector subsequently voted for Clinton.[591]
- Four Clinton electors in Washington did not vote for Clinton (three votes went to Colin Powell, and one to Faith Spotted Eagle).[592]
- One Trump elector in Georgia resigned before the vote rather than vote for Trump and was replaced by an alternate.[593]
- Two Trump electors in Texas did not vote for Trump (one vote went to John Kasich, one to Ron Paul); one elector did not vote for Pence and instead voted for Carly Fiorina for vice president; a third resigned before the vote rather than vote for Trump and was replaced by an alternate.[592]
- One Clinton elector in Hawaii voted for Bernie Sanders.[594]
Of the faithless votes, Colin Powell and Elizabeth Warren were the only two to receive more than one; Powell received three electoral votes for president and Warren received two for vice president. Receiving one valid electoral vote each were Sanders, John Kasich, Ron Paul and Faith Spotted Eagle for president, and Carly Fiorina, Susan Collins, Winona LaDuke and Maria Cantwell for vice president. Sanders is the first Jewish American to receive an electoral vote for president. LaDuke is the first Green Party member to receive an electoral vote, and Paul is the third member of the Libertarian Party to do so, following the party's presidential and vice-presidential nominees each getting one vote in 1972. It is the first election with faithless electors from more than one political party.
Democratic objections to vote certification
On January 6, 2017, a Joint Session of Congress was held to count the Electoral College votes, pursuant to the Electoral Count Act. This count was unusual for the many unsuccessful objections raised by Democratic members of the House of Representatives, alleging voter suppression and foreign interference.
Handling of illegal votes
Critics alleged racial bias after comparing the different sentences handed down to two white people and one black person who were convicted of attempting to vote illegally in the 2016 presidential election.[606]
Involvement of other countries
Russian involvement
On December 9, 2016, the Central Intelligence Agency issued an assessment to lawmakers in the US Senate, stating that a Russian entity hacked the DNC and John Podesta's emails to assist Donald Trump. The Federal Bureau of Investigation agreed.[607] President Barack Obama ordered a "full review" into such possible intervention.[608] Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper in early January 2017 testified before a Senate committee that Russia's meddling in the 2016 presidential campaign went beyond hacking, and included disinformation and the dissemination of fake news, often promoted on social media.[609] Facebook revealed that during the 2016 United States presidential election, a Russian company funded by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a Russian businessman with ties to Vladimir Putin,[610] had purchased advertisements on the website for US$100,000,[611] 25% of which were geographically targeted to the U.S.[612]
President-elect Trump originally called the report fabricated.[613]Julian Assange said the Russian government was not the source of the documents.[614] Days later, Trump said he could be convinced of the Russian hacking "if there is a unified presentation of evidence from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and other agencies".[615]
Several U.S. senators—including Republicans John McCain, Richard Burr, and Lindsey Graham—demanded a congressional investigation.[616] The Senate Intelligence Committee announced the scope of their bipartisan official inquiry on December 13, which began on January 24, 2017.[617]
A formal Special Counsel investigation headed by former FBI director Robert Mueller was initiated in May 2017 to uncover the detailed interference operations by Russia, and to determine whether any people associated with the Trump campaign were complicit in the Russian efforts. When questioned by Chuck Todd on Meet the Press in March 2017, Clapper declared that intelligence investigations on Russian interference performed by the FBI, CIA, NSA and his ODNI office had found no evidence of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.[618] Mueller concluded his investigation on March 22, 2019, by submitting his report to Attorney General William Barr.[619]
On March 24, 2019, Barr submitted a letter describing Mueller's conclusions,[620][621] and on April 18, 2019, a redacted version of the Mueller report was released to the public. It concluded that Russian interference in the 2016 presidential election did occur "in sweeping and systematic fashion" and "violated U.S. criminal law".[622][623]
The first method detailed in the final report was the usage of the Internet Research Agency, waging "a social media campaign that favored presidential candidate Donald J. Trump and disparaged presidential candidate Hillary Clinton".[624] The Internet Research Agency also sought to "provoke and amplify political and social discord in the United States".[625]
The second method of Russian interference saw the Russian intelligence service, the GRU, hacking into email accounts owned by volunteers and employees of the Clinton presidential campaign, including that of campaign chairman John Podesta, and also hacking into "the computer networks of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the Democratic National Committee (DNC)".[626] As a result, the GRU obtained hundreds of thousands of hacked documents, and the GRU proceeded by arranging releases of damaging hacked material via the WikiLeaks organization and also GRU's personas "DCLeaks" and "Guccifer 2.0".[627][628] To establish whether a crime was committed by members of the Trump campaign with regard to Russian interference, the special counsel's investigators "applied the framework of conspiracy law", and not the concept of "collusion", because collusion "is not a specific offense or theory of liability found in the United States Code, nor is it a term of art in federal criminal law".[629][630] They also investigated if members of the Trump campaign "coordinated" with Russia, using the definition of "coordination" as having "an agreement—tacit or express—between the Trump campaign and the Russian government on election interference". Investigators further elaborated that merely having "two parties taking actions that were informed by or responsive to the other's actions or interests" was not enough to establish coordination.[631]
The Mueller report writes that the investigation "identified numerous links between the Russian government and the Trump campaign", found that Russia "perceived it would benefit from a Trump presidency" and that the 2016 Trump presidential campaign "expected it would benefit electorally" from Russian hacking efforts. Ultimately, "the investigation did not establish that members of the Trump campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities".[632][633]
However, investigators had an incomplete picture of what had really occurred during the 2016 campaign, due to some associates of Trump campaign providing either false, incomplete or declined testimony, as well as having deleted, unsaved or encrypted communications. As such, the Mueller report "cannot rule out the possibility" that information then unavailable to investigators would have presented different findings.[634][635] In March 2020, the US Justice Department dropped its prosecution of two Russian firms linked to interference in the 2016 election.[636][610]
Other countries
Special Council Robert Mueller also investigated the Trump campaign's alleged ties to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Qatar, Israel, and China.[637][638] According to The Times of Israel, Trump's longtime confidant Roger Stone "was in contact with one or more apparently well-connected Israelis at the height of the 2016 US presidential campaign, one of whom warned Stone that Trump was 'going to be defeated unless we intervene' and promised 'we have critical intell[sic].'"[639][640]
The Justice Department accused George Nader of providing $3.5 million in illicit campaign donations to Hillary Clinton before the elections and to Trump after he won the elections. According to The New York Times, this was an attempt by the government of United Arab Emirates to influence the election.[641]
In December 2018, a Ukrainian court ruled that prosecutors in Ukraine had meddled in the 2016 election by releasing damaging information on Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort.[642]
Voice of America reported in April 2020 that "U.S. intelligence agencies concluded the Chinese hackers meddled in both the 2016 and 2018 elections".[643]
In July 2021, the US federal prosecutors accused Trump's former adviser Tom Barrack for being an unregistered foreign lobbying agent for the United Arab Emirates during the 2016 presidential campaign of Donald Trump.[644] In 2022, Barrack was found not guilty on all charges.[645]
See also
- 1948 United States presidential election – Another upset in the history of United States presidential elections
- 2016 United States gubernatorial elections
- 2016 United States House of Representatives elections – House elections for the 115th U.S. Congress
- 2016 United States Senate elections
- History of the United States (2016–present)
- Inauguration of Donald Trump – 58th United States presidential inauguration
- White backlash – Political theory
Notes
- 12In state-by-state tallies, Trump earned 306 pledged electors, Clinton 232. They lost respectively two and five votes to faithless electors. Vice presidential candidates Pence and Kaine lost one and five votes, respectively. Three other votes by electors were invalidated and recast.
- ↑In 1980, Democrat Jimmy Carter carried his home state of Georgia, despite losing the election.
- ↑Pence received 305 electoral votes for vice president, but only 304 as part of the Trump–Pence ticket; one faithless elector from Texas voted for Ron Paul as president instead of Trump, and is recorded separately below.
- 1234567891011Received electoral vote(s) from a faithless elector
- 12345678Candidate received votes as a write-in. The exact numbers of write-in votes have been published for three states: California, New Hampshire, and Vermont.[357]
- 123Two faithless electors from Texas cast their presidential votes for Ron Paul and John Kasich, respectively. Chris Suprun said he cast his presidential vote for John Kasich and his vice presidential vote for Carly Fiorina. The other faithless elector in Texas, Bill Greene, cast his presidential vote for Ron Paul but cast his vice presidential vote for Mike Pence, as pledged. John Kasich received recorded write-in votes in Alabama, Georgia, Illinois, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Vermont.
- ↑Percentage point difference in margin from the 2012 election
- ↑Maine split its electoral votes for the first time since 1828.[422]
- 1234Alaska and Louisiana do not have counties. Alaska's boroughs and census areas and Louisiana's parishes are pictured.
- ↑The 1872 presidential election also saw multiple electors vote for a different candidate than that pledged, due to the death of Liberal Republican candidate Horace Greeley, after the popular vote, yet before the meeting of the Electoral College. Greeley still garnered three posthumous electoral votes which Congress subsequently dismissed.
- ↑Not including 1912, because of the death of James S. Sherman.
References
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- 12Sabato, Larry; Kondik, Kyle; Skelley, Geoffrey (2017). Trumped: The 2016 Election That Broke All the Rules. Rowman & Littlefield. p. 7 (The popular vote results mentioned here are slightly different from the official results published in December 2017.). ISBN 9781442279407.
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- ↑Abramowitz, Alan I. (June 25, 2020). "Do Campaign Visits Pay Off? Evidence from the 2016 Presidential Election". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 31, 2025.
Following the election, there was considerable speculation that Trump's victory was due in part to the fact that he spent more time than Clinton campaigning in some of these swing states, including Wisconsin, which Clinton did not visit once during the campaign.
- 12Silver, Nate (November 22, 2016). "Education, Not Income, Predicted Who Would Vote For Trump". FiveThirtyEight. Archived from the original on November 22, 2016.
In short, it appears as though educational levels are the critical factor in predicting shifts in the vote between 2012 and 2016. ... Nonetheless, the education gap is carving up the American electorate and toppling political coalitions that had been in place for many years.
- ↑Carnes, Nicholas; Lupu, Noam. "The White Working Class and the 2016 Election"(PDF). noamlupu.com. Noam Lupu. Retrieved November 1, 2024.
White working-class Americans have been supporting Republican presidential candidates at higher rates in recent elections, but that process long predates 2016, and narratives that center on Trump's alleged appeal obscure this important long-term trend.
- ↑McQuarrie, Michael (November 2017). "The revolt of the Rust Belt: place and politics in the age of anger". The British Journal of Sociology. 68 (S1): S120–S152. doi:10.1111/1468-4446.12328. ISSN 0007-1315. PMID 29114874. S2CID 26010609.
- ↑"Could Sanders voters help Trump win the White House again?". NBC News. March 8, 2020. Archived from the original on October 3, 2020. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
- ↑Kurtzleben, Danielle (August 24, 2017). "Here's How Many Bernie Sanders Supporters Ultimately Voted For Trump". NPR. Archived from the original on October 3, 2020. Retrieved November 29, 2022.
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- ↑Miller, Greg; Entous, Adam (January 6, 2017). "Declassified report says Putin 'ordered' effort to undermine faith in U.S. election and help Trump". The Washington Post. Archived from the original on January 7, 2017. Retrieved March 11, 2017.
- ↑Eichenwald, Kurt (January 10, 2017). "Trump, Putin and the hidden history of how Russia interfered in the U.S. presidential election". Newsweek. Archived from the original on January 30, 2021. Retrieved March 11, 2017.
- ↑"Intelligence Report on Russian Hacking". The New York Times. January 6, 2017. p. 11. Archived from the original on January 8, 2017. Retrieved January 8, 2017.
- ↑Rosenstein, Rod (May 17, 2017). "Rod Rosenstein's Letter Appointing Mueller Special Counsel". The New York Times. Archived from the original on May 18, 2017. Retrieved November 3, 2017.
- ↑"Grand Jury Indicts Thirteen Russian Individuals and Three Russian Companies for Scheme to Interfere in the United States Political System". United States Department of Justice. February 16, 2018. Archived from the original on March 8, 2021. Retrieved November 14, 2018.
- ↑Mueller ReportArchived April 19, 2019, at the Wayback Machine, vol. I, p. 1: "The Russian government interfered in the 2016 presidential election in sweeping and systematic fashion. [...] Although the investigation established that the Russian government perceived it would benefit from a Trump presidency and worked to secure that outcome, and that the Campaign expected it would benefit electorally from information stolen and released through Russian efforts, the investigation did not establish that members of the Trump Campaign conspired or coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities."
- ↑Geller, Eric (April 18, 2019). "Collusion aside, Mueller found abundant evidence of Russian election plot". Politico. Archived from the original on March 8, 2021. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
- ↑Stout, Christopher Timothy; Le, Danvy (October 8, 2012). "Living the Dream: Barack Obama and Blacks' Changing Perceptions of the American Dream". Social Science Quarterly. 93 (5): 1338–1359. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6237.2012.00915.x. ISSN 0038-4941.
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."@realDonaldTrump will be presumptive @GOP nominee, we all need to unite ..."
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- ↑Nelson, Rebecca (April 13, 2015). "Marco Rubio Makes His Pitch as the Fresh Face of the GOP in 2016". National Journal. Archived from the original on July 20, 2015. Retrieved April 14, 2015.
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States that allow write-ins in the general election, and don't have write-in filing laws, are legally obliged to count all write-ins: Alabama, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Vermont ... Only one state, South Carolina, has a law that says that although write-ins in general elections are permitted, they are not permitted for president.
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What is perhaps more surprising, at least to Washington-based conservatives, is how many Republicans are also embracing Trump's populist lines on ending free trade, protecting Social Security, and providing basic health care.
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For years the Republican elite has gotten away with promoting policies about trade and entitlements that are the exact opposites of the policies favored by much of their electoral base. Populist conservatives who want to end illegal immigration, tax the rich, protect Social Security and Medicare, and fight fewer foreign wars have been there all along. It's just that mainstream pundits and journalists, searching for a libertarian right more to their liking (and comprehension), refused to see them before the Summer of Trump.
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While wages declined and workers grew anxious about retirement, Republicans offered an economic program still centered on tax cuts for the affluent and the curtailing of popular entitlements like Medicare and Social Security.
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Steve Rattner breaks down the demographics of who is supporting Donald Trump and how these supporters are doing financially. Duration: 2:25
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Even after controlling for these other factors, the middle-aged white death rate in a county was still a significant predictor of the share of votes that went to Trump
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it makes all the political sense in the world for Mrs. Clinton to ignore them
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The remarks also remind of inflammatory remarks in recent presidential elections on both sides—from Barack Obama's assertion in 2008 that people in small towns are "bitter" and "cling to guns or religion," to Mitt Romney's 2012 statement that 47 percent of Americans vote for Democrats because they are "dependent upon government" and believe they are "victims," to his vice presidential pick Paul Ryan's comment that the country is divided between "makers and takers."
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Republican pollster Frank Luntz described Clinton's comments as her "47 percent moment," a reference to Republican Mitt Romney's remarks at a private fundraiser in the 2012 campaign.
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Prof. Jennifer Mercieca, an expert in American political discourse at Texas A&M University, said in an email that the "deplorable" comment "sounds bad on the face of it" and compared it to Mr. Romney's 47 percent gaffe. "The comment demonstrates that she (like Romney) lacks empathy for that group," Professor Mercieca said.
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Then one day I said, 'what do you have to lose?' I mean what do you have to lose? I'm going to fix it. What do you have to lose?" Trump said. "And somehow that resonated.
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I paid my lifetime membership, in 1987, with a gold coin, to make a point.
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- ↑Sanger, David E. (December 10, 2016). "Trump, Mocking Claim That Russia Hacked Election, at Odds with G.O.P."The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved December 10, 2016.
- ↑Entous, Adam; Nakashima, Ellen; Miller, Greg (December 9, 2016). "Secret CIA assessment says Russia was trying to help Trump win White House". The Washington Post.
- ↑Paletta, Damian; O'Keeffe, Kate (December 18, 2016). "Donald Trump's Team Tones Down Skepticism on Russia Hacking Evidence". The Wall Street Journal.
- ↑Levine, Sam (December 10, 2016). "Chuck Schumer Calls For Investigation Into Russian Interference In The Election". HuffPost. Retrieved December 10, 2016.
- ↑"SSCI Statement on Inquiry into Russian Intelligence Activities after Committee Meeting Today" (Press release). Washington: US Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. January 24, 2017. Retrieved August 11, 2020.
- ↑"Full Clapper: 'No Evidence' of Collusion Between Trump and Russia". Meet the Press. NBC News. March 5, 2017. Retrieved March 6, 2017.
- ↑"Special Counsel Mueller submits report to attorney general". NBC News. March 22, 2019. Retrieved March 22, 2019.
- ↑"Letter". Scribd. Retrieved March 24, 2019.
- ↑Pramuk, Jacob; Kimball, Spencer (March 24, 2019). "Trump did not collude with Russia, says Mueller, and is cleared of obstruction by the attorney general". CNBC. Retrieved March 24, 2019.
- ↑Inskeep, Steve; Detrow, Scott; Johnson, Carrie; Davis, Susan; Greene, David. "Redacted Mueller Report Released; Congress, Trump React". NPR. NPR. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
- ↑"The Mueller Report". YaleGlobal Online. MacMillan Center for International and Area Studies. May 19, 2021.
- ↑"Main points of Mueller report". Agence France-Presse. Archived from the original on April 20, 2019. Retrieved April 20, 2019.
- ↑Harris, Shane; Nakashima, Ellen; Timberg, Craig (April 18, 2019). "Through email leaks and propaganda, Russians sought to elect Trump, Mueller finds". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 23, 2019.
- ↑Mueller Report, vol. I, p. 4: At the same time that the IRA operation began to focus on supporting candidate Trump in early 2016, the Russian government employed a second form of interference: cyber intrusions (hacking) and releases of hacked materials damaging to the Clinton Campaign. The Russian intelligence service known as the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Army (GRU) carried out these operations. In March 2016, the GRU began hacking the email accounts of Clinton Campaign volunteers and employees, including campaign chairman John Podesta. In April 2016, the GRU hacked into the computer networks of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and the Democratic National Committee (DNC). The GRU stole hundreds of thousands of documents from the compromised email accounts and networks. Around the time that the DNC announced in mid-June 2016 the Russian government's role in hacking its network, the GRU began disseminating stolen materials through the fictitious online personas "DCLeaks" and "Guccifer 2.0." The GRU later released additional materials through the organization WikiLeaks.
- ↑Mackey, Robert; Risen, James; Aaronson, Trevor (April 18, 2019). "Annotating special counsel Robert Mueller's redacted report". The Intercept. Retrieved April 23, 2019.
- ↑Dunleavy, Jerry (April 18, 2019). "Mueller says Russia's GRU stole Clinton, DNC emails and gave them to WikiLeaks". Washington Examiner. Retrieved April 23, 2019.
- ↑Morais, Betsy (April 18, 2019). "Collusion by any other name". Columbia Journalism Review. Retrieved April 23, 2019.
- ↑Mueller Report, vol. I, p. 2: In evaluating whether evidence about the collective action of multiple individuals constituted a crime, we applied the framework of conspiracy law, not the concept of "collusion." In so doing, the Office recognized that the word "collud[e]" was used in communications with the Acting Attorney General confirming certain aspects of the investigation's scope and that the term has frequently been invoked in public reporting about the investigation. But collusion is not a specific offense or theory of liability found in the United States Code, nor is it a term of art in federal criminal law. For those reasons, the Office's focus in analyzing questions of joint criminal liability was on conspiracy as defined in federal law.
- ↑Mueller Report, vol. I, p. 2: In connection with that analysis, we addressed the factual question of whether members of the Trump Campaign "coordinat[ed]"—a term that appears in the appointment order—with Russian election interference activities. Like collusion, "coordination" does not have a settled definition in federal criminal law. We understood coordination to require an agreement—tacit or express—between the Trump Campaign and the Russian government on election interference. That requires more than the two parties taking actions that were informed by or responsive to the other's actions or interests. We applied the term coordination in that sense when stating in the report that the investigation did not establish that the Trump campaign coordinated with the Russian government in its election interference activities.
- ↑Ostriker, Rebecca; Puzzanghera, Jim; Finucane, Martin; Datar, Saurabh; Uraizee, Irfan; Garvin, Patrick. "What the Mueller report says about Trump and more". The Boston Globe. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
- ↑Law, Tara. "Here Are the Biggest Takeaways From the Mueller Report". Time. Archived from the original on April 22, 2019. Retrieved April 22, 2019.
- ↑Yen, Hope (May 2019). "AP Fact Check: Trump, Barr distort Mueller report findings". Associated Press. Retrieved May 2, 2019.
- ↑Lemon, Jason (April 18, 2019). "Trump campaign figures deleted communications before Mueller could see them, potentially altering report". Newsweek. Retrieved May 8, 2019.
- ↑"Justice Department dropping case against Russian firms indicted in Mueller inquiry". Los Angeles Times. March 17, 2020.
- ↑Keating, Joshua (March 8, 2018). "It's Not Just a "Russia" Investigation Anymore". Slate.
- ↑"Report: Saudis, UAE funnelled millions to Trump 2016 campaign". Al Jazeera. February 25, 2020.
- ↑"Redacted FBI document hints at Israeli efforts to help Trump in 2016 campaign". The Times of Israel. April 29, 2020.
- ↑"Roger Stone search warrants reveal new clues — and mysteries — about 2016". Politico. April 28, 2020.
- ↑"Indictment Details How Emirates Sought Influence in 2016 Campaign". The New York Times. December 5, 2019.
- ↑Kramaer, Andrew E. (November 12, 2018). "Ukraine Court Rules Manafort Disclosure Caused 'Meddling' in U.S. Election". The New York Times.
- ↑"China, Caught Meddling in Past Two US Elections, Claims 'Not Interested' in 2020 Vote". Voice of America. April 30, 2020.
- ↑"Trump Ally Tom Barrack Charged With Secretly Working For UAE". HuffPost. July 20, 2021. Retrieved July 20, 2021.
- ↑Hays, Tom (November 4, 2022). "Trump ally Tom Barrack acquitted of foreign agent charges". Los Angeles Times. The Associated Press.
Further reading
- Berman, Ari (November–December 2017). "Rigged: How Voter Suppression Threw Wisconsin to Trump". Mother Jones. Archived from the original on September 23, 2018.
- Lauck, Jon K. "Trump and The Midwest: The 2016 Presidential Election and The Avenues of Midwestern Historiography" Studies in Midwestern History (2017) vol 3#1 online
- Ott, Brian L. (2017). "The age of Twitter: Donald J. Trump and the politics of debasement". Critical Studies in Media Communication. 34 (1): 59–68. doi:10.1080/15295036.2016.1266686.
- Patterson, Thomas E. (July 11, 2016). "News Coverage of the 2016 Presidential Primaries: Horse Race Reporting Has Consequences". Shorenstein Center on Media, Politics and Public Policy. Archived from the original on October 2, 2018.
- Ross, Andrew S.; Rivers, Damian J. (April 2017). "Digital cultures of political participation: Internet memes and the discursive delegitimization of the 2016 U.S Presidential candidates". Discourse, Context & Media. 16: 1–11. doi:10.1016/j.dcm.2017.01.001.
- Rozell, Mark J., ed. (2017). God at the Grassroots 2016: The Christian Right in American Politics. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. ISBN 978-1538108918.
- Sabato, Larry; Kondik, Kyle; Shelley, Geoffrey, eds. (2017). Trumped: The 2016 Election That Broke All the Rules. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield. ISBN 978-1-4422-7940-7.
- Schaffner, Brian; Clark, John A., eds. (2017). Making Sense of the 2016 Elections: A CQ Press Guide . Thousand Oaks, CA: CQ Press. ISBN 978-1-5063-8418-4.
- Visser, Beth A.; Book, Angela S.; Volk, Anthony A. (2017). "¿Es Hillary deshonesta y Donald narcisista? Un análisis HEXACO de las personalidades públicas de los candidatos presidenciales" . Personality and Individual Differences . 106 : 281–286 . doi : 10.1016/j.paid.2016.10.053 .
- West, Darrell M. (2017). Guerras aéreas: publicidad televisiva y redes sociales en las campañas electorales, 1952-2016 . Thousand Oaks, CA: CQ Press. ISBN 9781506329833.
Enlaces externos
- Proceso de elecciones presidenciales según USA.gov , el portal web oficial del Gobierno Federal de los Estados Unidos.
- Presentadores del Formulario 2 para las elecciones presidenciales de 2016 ante la Comisión Federal de Elecciones (FEC)
- Un mapa extremadamente detallado de las elecciones de 2016 del New York Times.
- Discurso de concesión de Hillary Clinton en YouTube
- "The Choice 2016" . Frontline . Temporada 35. Episodio 2. 27 de septiembre de 2016. PBS . WGBH . Consultado el 28 de noviembre de 2024 .
- "El camino de Trump a la Casa Blanca" . Frontline . Temporada 35. Episodio 9. 24 de enero de 2017. PBS. WGBH . Consultado el 28 de noviembre de 2024 .