Guerra ruso-ucraniana (2022-presente)

El 24 de febrero de 2022, Rusia invadió Ucrania , dando inicio a la guerra más grande y mortífera en Europa desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial , en una escalada importante de la guerra existente entre los dos países que comenzó cuando Rusia atacó Ucrania en 2014. [ ^{13 ] [}^{14 ] [}^{15 ] Los} combates han causado cientos de miles de bajas militares y decenas de miles de bajas civiles ucranianas . A julio de 2026, las tropas rusas ocupan aproximadamente el 20% de Ucrania . ^{[ 16 ]} De una población de 41 millones, alrededor de 8 millones de ucranianos han sido desplazados internamente ^{[ 17 ]} y entre 6 y 7 millones han huido del país , ^{[ 18 ]} creando la mayor crisis de refugiados de Europa desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial.

A finales de 2021, Rusia concentró tropas cerca de las fronteras de Ucrania y emitió demandas a Occidente , incluyendo la prohibición de que Ucrania se uniera a la OTAN . Después de negar repetidamente tener planes para atacar a Ucrania, el 24 de febrero de 2022, el presidente ruso Vladimir Putin anunció una " operación militar especial ", diciendo que era para apoyar a las repúblicas separatistas de Donetsk y Luhansk , respaldadas por Rusia , cuyas fuerzas paramilitares habían estado luchando contra Ucrania en la guerra del Donbás desde 2014. Putin defendió puntos de vista irredentistas e imperialistas que desafiaban la legitimidad de Ucrania como Estado . Afirmó sin pruebas que el gobierno ucraniano era neonazi y que estaba cometiendo genocidio contra la minoría rusa en el Donbás y que el objetivo de Rusia era "desmilitarizar y desnazificar" Ucrania. ^{[ d ]} Los ataques aéreos rusos y una invasión terrestre fueron lanzados en un frente norte desde Bielorrusia hacia la capital, Kiev ; un frente sur desde Crimea ocupada ; y un frente este desde el Donbás hacia Járkov . Ucrania promulgó la ley marcial , ordenó la movilización general y rompió relaciones diplomáticas con Rusia .

Las tropas rusas se retiraron del norte y de las afueras de Kiev en abril de 2022, tras encontrar una fuerte resistencia y dificultades logísticas. La masacre de Bucha fue descubierta tras su retirada. Rusia lanzó una ofensiva en el Donbás y capturó Mariúpol tras un asedio devastador . Rusia continuó bombardeando objetivos militares y civiles lejos del frente y atacó la red eléctrica de Ucrania durante los meses de invierno. A finales de 2022, Ucrania lanzó contraofensivas exitosas en el sur y el este , liberando la mayor parte del óblast de Járkov . Poco después, Rusia anexó ilegalmente cuatro provincias parcialmente ocupadas . En noviembre, Ucrania liberó la ciudad de Jersón y todo el territorio al oeste del río Dniéper . Tras pequeños pero constantes avances rusos en el este durante la primera mitad de 2024, Ucrania lanzó una ofensiva transfronteriza en el óblast ruso de Kursk en agosto, donde soldados norcoreanos fueron enviados para ayudar a Rusia.

La Oficina de Derechos Humanos de las Naciones Unidas informa que Rusia está cometiendo graves violaciones de derechos humanos en la Ucrania ocupada. Los ataques de Rusia contra civiles , así como sus políticas en los territorios ocupados, han dado lugar a acusaciones de genocidio . ^{[ e ]} El costo directo de la guerra para Rusia se ha estimado en más de 450 mil millones de dólares, mientras que el Grupo del Banco Mundial estima el costo de la reconstrucción en Ucrania en 588 mil millones de dólares.

La invasión rusa fue condenada internacionalmente . Muchos países impusieron sanciones a Rusia y a su aliada Bielorrusia, al tiempo que proporcionaban ayuda humanitaria y militar a Ucrania. Se produjeron protestas en todo el mundo. Dentro de sus fronteras, Rusia respondió a los manifestantes pacifistas con detenciones masivas y una mayor censura de los medios de comunicación . Las interrupciones causadas por la guerra en la agricultura y el transporte marítimo ucranianos agravaron la crisis alimentaria mundial ; los daños ambientales derivados de la guerra fueron calificados de ecocidio . La Corte Penal Internacional (CPI) abrió una investigación por crímenes de lesa humanidad , crímenes de guerra , secuestro de niños ucranianos y genocidio contra el pueblo ucraniano. La CPI emitió órdenes de arresto contra Putin y otros cinco funcionarios rusos. Las negociaciones de paz se han estancado y Rusia ha rechazado reiteradamente los llamamientos a un alto el fuego.

Fondo

Relaciones postsoviéticas

Tras la disolución de la Unión Soviética en 1991, Rusia y Ucrania mantuvieron relaciones cordiales. A cambio de garantías de seguridad, Ucrania firmó el Tratado de No Proliferación Nuclear en 1994 y renunció a sus armas nucleares . ^{[ 28 ]} Rusia, Estados Unidos y el Reino Unido acordaron en el Memorando de Budapest respetar la soberanía y las fronteras de Ucrania. ^{[ 29 ]} En 1999, Rusia firmó la Carta para la Seguridad Europea , afirmando que todo país tiene derecho a «elegir o modificar sus acuerdos de seguridad» y a unirse a alianzas militares. ^{[ 30 ]} En 2005, Putin declaró que si Ucrania deseaba unirse a la OTAN, «respetaríamos su decisión». ^{[ 31 ]}

Revolución ucraniana

En 2013, el parlamento de Ucrania aprobó la finalización del Acuerdo de Asociación entre la Unión Europea y Ucrania . ^{[ 32 ]} El régimen de Putin presionó a Ucrania para que rechazara el acuerdo e impuso sanciones económicas al país. ^{[ 33 ]} El asesor del Kremlin, Sergei Glazyev, advirtió en septiembre de 2013 que si Ucrania firmaba el acuerdo de la UE, Rusia dejaría de reconocer las fronteras de Ucrania . ^{[ 34 ]}

En noviembre, el presidente ucraniano Yanukóvich se retiró repentinamente de la firma del acuerdo, ^{[ 35 ]} optando en cambio por estrechar lazos con Rusia. Esta retirada forzada provocó protestas masivas conocidas como Euromaidán , que culminaron en la Revolución de la Dignidad en febrero de 2014. Casi 100 manifestantes fueron asesinados por las fuerzas estatales, la mayoría por francotiradores de la policía . A pesar de haber firmado un acuerdo , Yanukóvich huyó secretamente a Rusia. ^{[ 36 ]} El parlamento ucraniano votó entonces para destituirlo y celebrar nuevas elecciones , ^{[ 37 ]} que eligieron a Petro Poroshenko como presidente de Ucrania . ^{[ 38 ]}

Invasión rusa de Crimea y Donbás

El 27 de febrero de 2014, soldados rusos sin insignias comenzaron a ocupar el territorio ucraniano de Crimea, ^{[ 39 ]} bloqueando las bases militares ucranianas. ^{[ 40 ]} En marzo, Rusia anexó Crimea tras un referéndum ilegítimo celebrado bajo ocupación. Fue la primera vez desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial que un país europeo anexaba parte de otro, ^{[ 41 ]} y varios académicos lo compararon con la anexión de Austria por la Alemania nazi . ^{[ 42 ]}^{[ 43 ]}^{[ 44 ]} La Asamblea General de la ONU adoptó una resolución que afirmaba la "integridad territorial de Ucrania" y rechazaba la anexión. ^{[ 45 ]} La OTAN también suspendió la cooperación con Rusia . ^{[ 46 ]} Putin dijo que Crimea nunca debería haber sido parte de una Ucrania independiente y afirmó que Rusia no quería tomar ninguna otra región de Ucrania. ^{[ 47 ]}

Se produjeron protestas prorrusas en las ciudades ucranianas de Donetsk y Luhansk , financiadas y organizadas secretamente por Rusia. ^{[ 48 ]} En abril de 2014, paramilitares rusos armados tomaron Sloviansk y otros asentamientos, proclamando la República Popular de Donetsk (RPD) y la República Popular de Luhansk (RPL) independientes. Su comandante, Igor Girkin , reconoció que esto desencadenó la Guerra del Donbás , ya que Ucrania pronto lanzó una operación para recuperar el territorio. ^{[ 49 ]}^{[ 50 ]}^{[ 51 ]} Rusia apoyó secretamente a los separatistas con tropas, tanques y artillería. ^{[ 52 ]} La Corte Penal Internacional dictaminó que la guerra fue un conflicto armado nacional e internacional en el que participó Rusia, ^{[ 53 ]} y el Tribunal Europeo de Derechos Humanos dictaminó que Rusia controlaba la RPD y la RPL desde 2014 en adelante. ^{[ 54 ]} El parlamento de Ucrania declaró que la región del Donbás estaba ocupada por Rusia. ^{[ 55 ]}

La anexión de Crimea y la guerra del Donbás desencadenaron una ola de nacionalismo ruso . El analista Vladimir Socor calificó el discurso de Putin de 2014 tras la anexión como un «manifiesto del irredentismo de la Gran Rusia ». ^{[ 56 ]} Putin comenzó a referirse a « Novorossiya » (Nueva Rusia), un antiguo territorio imperial ruso que abarcaba gran parte del sur de Ucrania. ^{[ 57 ]} Las fuerzas respaldadas por Rusia estaban influenciadas por el neoimperialismo ruso ^{[ 58 ]} y buscaban crear una nueva Novorossiya . ^{[ 59 ]}

Cuando comenzó el conflicto en 2014, Ucrania era oficialmente neutral ^{[ 61 ]} y declaró que no buscaba ingresar en la OTAN. ^{[ 62 ]}^{[ 63 ]} Tras la ocupación rusa de Crimea y la invasión del Donbás , el parlamento ucraniano votó en diciembre de 2014 a favor de revocar el estatus de neutralidad del país y solicitar su ingreso en la OTAN . ^{[ 64 ]}^{[ 65 ]}

Los acuerdos de Minsk (septiembre de 2014 y febrero de 2015) tenían como objetivo resolver la guerra del Donbás, pero los altos el fuego y las negociaciones posteriores fracasaron. ^{[ 66 ]} La débil respuesta de Occidente a las acciones rusas llevó a Putin a creer que Occidente no reaccionaría con fuerza ante la invasión de 2022. ^{[ 67 ]}^{[ 68 ]}^{[ 69 ]} Varios politólogos afirmaron que esto alentó una mayor agresión rusa. ^{[ 70 ]}^{[ 71 ]}^{[ 72 ]}

Preludio

Acumulamiento militar ruso y demandas

Hubo un aumento de presencia militar rusa cerca de las fronteras de Ucrania en marzo y abril de 2021, ^{[ 73 ]} y nuevamente en Rusia y Bielorrusia a partir de octubre de 2021. ^{[ 74 ]} Rusia afirmó que solo estaba realizando ejercicios militares . Miembros de su gobierno, incluido Putin, negaron repetidamente tener planes para invadir Ucrania, emitiendo negaciones hasta el día anterior a la invasión. ^{[ 75 ]}^{[ 76 ]}^{[ 77 ]}

Las fuerzas interpuestas de Rusia lanzaron miles de ataques contra tropas ucranianas en el Donbás. ^{[ 78 ]} Los observadores de la Organización para la Seguridad y la Cooperación en Europa (OSCE) informaron de más de 90 000 violaciones del alto el fuego a lo largo de 2021, la mayoría en territorio controlado por Rusia . ^{[ 79 ]}

En julio de 2021, Putin publicó " Sobre la unidad histórica de rusos y ucranianos ", en el que calificó a Ucrania como "tierras históricamente rusas" y afirmó que "no existe base histórica" para la "idea del pueblo ucraniano como una nación separada de los rusos". ^{[ 80 ]}^{[ 81 ]}Putin fue acusado de promover el imperialismo ruso , el revisionismo histórico y la desinformación. ^{[ 82 ]}

El ultimátum ruso de diciembre de 2021 a la OTAN incluía exigencias de que la OTAN pusiera fin a toda actividad en sus estados miembros de Europa del Este y prohibiera a Ucrania o a cualquier antiguo estado soviético unirse a la alianza. ^{[ 83 ]}^{[ 84 ]}^{[ 85 ]}^{[ 86 ]} El gobierno ruso afirmó que la OTAN era una amenaza y advirtió de una respuesta militar si seguía una «línea agresiva». ^{[ 87 ]} Un funcionario estadounidense declaró que Estados Unidos estaba dispuesto a debatir las propuestas, pero que algunas «los rusos saben que son inaceptables» y que ya habían sido descartadas. ^{[ 85 ]} El secretario general de la OTAN, Jens Stoltenberg, respondió que «Rusia no tiene derecho de veto» sobre la adhesión de Ucrania y «no tiene derecho a establecer una esfera de influencia para intentar controlar a sus vecinos». ^{[ 88 ]} La OTAN subrayó que es una alianza defensiva y que había cooperado con Rusia hasta la anexión de Crimea. ^{[ 89 ]}

Varios analistas políticos occidentales sugirieron que Rusia sabía que sus "demandas poco realistas" serían rechazadas, ^{[ 85 ]} lo que le dio un pretexto para invadir. ^{[ 90 ]} Ningún país fronterizo con Rusia se había unido a la OTAN desde 2004. Ucrania aún no había solicitado su ingreso, y algunos estados miembros de la OTAN probablemente vetarían su adhesión. ^{[ 91 ]} Los analistas Taras Kuzio y Vladimir Socor coinciden en que "cuando Rusia tomó la decisión de invadir Ucrania, ese país estaba más alejado que nunca no solo de la adhesión a la OTAN, sino también de cualquier vía que pudiera conducir a ella". ^{[ 86 ]} Los politólogos Michael McFaul y Robert Person dijeron que la ocupación rusa de Crimea y el Donbás ya había bloqueado la adhesión de Ucrania a la OTAN; sugirieron que el verdadero objetivo de Putin era subyugar a Ucrania. ^{[ 92 ]}

La OTAN ofreció negociar algunas de las demandas de Rusia y mejorar la transparencia militar , siempre y cuando Rusia detuviera su acumulación de tropas. ^{[ 93 ]} La alianza rechazó la demanda de Rusia de mantener a Ucrania fuera de la OTAN para siempre, señalando que Rusia había firmado acuerdos que afirmaban el derecho de Ucrania y otros países a unirse a alianzas. ^{[ 94 ]}^{[ 95 ]} Estados Unidos propuso que él y Rusia firmaran un acuerdo para no estacionar misiles ni tropas en Ucrania. ^{[ 94 ]} Putin respondió que las demandas de Rusia habían sido "ignoradas" y la acumulación de tropas rusas continuó. ^{[ 96 ]}

Los líderes occidentales prometieron fuertes sanciones si Putin invadía en lugar de negociar. ^{[ 97 ]} El presidente francés Emmanuel Macron ^{[ 98 ]} y el canciller alemán Olaf Scholz se reunieron con Putin en febrero de 2022 para disuadirlo de la invasión. Putin le dijo a Scholz que Ucrania no debería ser un estado independiente. ^{[ 99 ]} Zelenskyy dijo que Putin había roto acuerdos y que no se podía confiar en que respetara la neutralidad ucraniana. ^{[ 100 ]} En la Conferencia de Seguridad de Múnich , Zelenskyy pidió a las potencias occidentales que pusieran fin a su " apaciguamiento " de Putin y establecieran un plazo para la posible adhesión de Ucrania a la OTAN. ^{[ 101 ]}

Poco antes de la invasión, las fuerzas interpuestas de Rusia intensificaron los ataques contra las fuerzas y civiles ucranianos en el Donbás. ^{[ 102 ]}^{[ 103 ]} Los líderes separatistas advirtieron que Ucrania estaba a punto de lanzar una ofensiva, pero no presentaron pruebas, y The Guardian señaló que sería "sumamente arriesgado" para Ucrania atacar el Donbás mientras las tropas rusas se concentraban en sus fronteras. ^{[ 103 ]} Ucrania y los líderes occidentales acusaron a Rusia de escenificar ataques de falsa bandera e intentar provocar represalias para darle a Rusia un pretexto para invadir. ^{[ 102 ]}^{[ 103 ]} El 17 de febrero, las fuerzas interpuestas de Rusia bombardearon un jardín de infancia en territorio controlado por Ucrania y luego culparon a Ucrania. ^{[ 103 ]} Zelenskyy dijo que su ejército no respondería a las provocaciones. ^{[ 102 ]}

Planes de invasión

El Royal United Services Institute informó que el plan de Rusia consistía en derrotar a Ucrania en diez días y capturar o asesinar a su gobierno, seguido de operaciones de "limpieza" ; establecer campos de filtración para ucranianos ; instaurar regímenes de ocupación; ejecutar a personas involucradas en la Revolución de la Dignidad; y anexión. ^{[ 104 ]}^{[ 105 ]}^{[ 106 ]} Según se informa, la decisión de invadir fue tomada por Putin y un pequeño grupo de halcones de guerra o siloviki en el círculo íntimo de Putin, incluidos el asesor de seguridad nacional Nikolai Patrushev y el ministro de defensa Sergei Shoigu . ^{[ 107 ]}

Tras el inicio de la invasión, analistas ucranianos y occidentales consideraron que Putin parecía creer que el ejército ruso podría tomar Kiev en cuestión de días. Esta evaluación llevó a la conclusión de que "tomar Kiev en tres días" había sido el objetivo original de la invasión. ^{[ 108 ]}^{[ 109 ]}^{[ 110 ]}

Anuncio de invasión de Putin

Discurso de Putin a la nación el 24 de febrero de 2022. Minutos después del anuncio de Putin, comenzó la invasión.

El 21 de febrero, Putin anunció el reconocimiento formal por parte de Rusia de la independencia de la República Popular de Donetsk y la República Popular de Lugansk . Al día siguiente, Rusia anunció el envío de tropas a los territorios como «fuerzas de paz» ^{[ 111 ]} , y el Consejo de la Federación de Rusia autorizó el uso de la fuerza militar en el extranjero ^{[ 112 ] .}

Antes de las 5 a.m. hora de Kiev del 24 de febrero, Putin, en otro discurso , anunció una " operación militar especial ", que de hecho declaró la guerra a Ucrania. ^{[ 113 ]}^{[ 114 ]} Putin dijo que la operación era para "proteger al pueblo" de las repúblicas separatistas controladas por Rusia. Afirmó sin fundamento que los rusos en el Donbás habían "sufrido humillación y genocidio perpetrados por el régimen de Kiev" durante 8 años. ^{[ 20 ]} Putin dijo que Rusia estaba siendo amenazada: afirmó sin fundamento que los funcionarios ucranianos eran neonazis bajo control occidental, que Ucrania estaba desarrollando armas nucleares y que una OTAN hostil estaba aumentando sus fuerzas e infraestructura en Ucrania. ^{[ 115 ]}^{[ 116 ]} Dijo que Rusia buscaba la "desmilitarización y desnazificación" de Ucrania y negó la legitimidad del Estado ucraniano. ^{[ 116 ]}^{[ 117 ]} Putin dijo que no tenía planes de ocupar Ucrania. ^{[ 115 ]} La invasión comenzó a los pocos minutos del discurso de Putin. ^{[ 113 ]}

Eventos

La invasión comenzó al amanecer del 24 de febrero. ^{[ 113 ]}^{[ 118 ]} Fue el mayor ataque contra un país europeo y la primera guerra a gran escala en Europa desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial. ^{[ 119 ]} Rusia lanzó un ataque simultáneo por tierra y aire. ^{[ 120 ]}^{[ 121 ]} Los misiles alcanzaron objetivos en toda Ucrania, ^{[ 122 ]} y las tropas rusas invadieron desde el norte, el este y el sur. ^{[ 123 ]} Rusia no declaró oficialmente la guerra. ^{[ 124 ]} Inmediatamente después de que comenzara la invasión, Zelenskyy declaró la ley marcial en Ucrania en un discurso en video. ^{[ 125 ]} Esa misma noche, ordenó la movilización general de todos los hombres ucranianos de entre 18 y 60 años, ^{[ 126 ]} prohibiéndoles salir del país. ^{[ 127 ]}

La primera fase de la invasión se llevó a cabo en cuatro frentes: uno hacia el oeste de Kiev desde Bielorrusia por el Distrito Militar Oriental ruso ; uno desplegado hacia el este de Kiev por el Distrito Militar Central (frente nororiental), que comprendía el 41.er Ejército de Armas Combinadas y el 2.º Ejército de Armas Combinadas de la Guardia , ^{[ 128 ]} uno desplegado hacia Járkov; y un cuarto frente, el del sur, que se originaba en Crimea y el óblast ruso de Rostov con un eje oriental hacia Odesa y un área de operaciones occidental hacia Mariúpol . ^{[ 128 ]} La invasión se encontró inesperadamente con una feroz resistencia. ^{[ 129 ]} Rusia no logró tomar Kiev y fue rechazada en las batallas de Irpin , Hostomel y Bucha . Los rusos intentaron cercar la capital, pero los defensores bajo el mando de Oleksandr Syrskyi mantuvieron sus posiciones, utilizando misiles antitanque y antiaéreos para debilitar las líneas de suministro rusas y frenar la ofensiva. ^{[ 130 ]}

Para el 7 de abril, las tropas rusas desplegadas en el frente norte se replegaron para reabastecerse y redesplegarse en el Donbás. El frente noreste se retiró de manera similar para su redespliegue en el sureste de Ucrania. ^{[ 128 ]}^{[ 131 ]} El 26 de abril, delegados de Estados Unidos y 40 naciones aliadas se reunieron en Alemania para discutir una coalición que proporcionara apoyo económico, suministros militares y reacondicionamiento a Ucrania. ^{[ 132 ]}

Invasión inicial (24 de febrero – 7 de abril de 2022)

La invasión comenzó el 24 de febrero, lanzada desde Bielorrusia con el objetivo de Kiev y desde el noreste contra la ciudad de Járkov. El frente sureste se desarrolló en dos puntas de lanza separadas, desde Crimea y el sureste contra Lugansk y Donetsk. ^{[ 133 ]}

Kyiv y el frente norte

Las tropas rusas intentaron tomar Kiev rápidamente con una punta de lanza el 24 de febrero, desde Bielorrusia hacia el sur a lo largo de la orilla oeste del río Dniéper , con Spetsnaz infiltrándose en la ciudad, apoyados por operaciones aerotransportadas y un rápido avance mecanizado desde el norte, pero fracasaron. ^{[ 134 ]}^{[ 135 ]} La intención aparente era rodear la ciudad desde el oeste, apoyado por dos ejes de ataque separados a lo largo de la orilla este del Dniéper: el occidental en Cherníhiv y desde el este en Sumy . ^{[ 120 ]}^{[ 121 ]} Las fuerzas rusas avanzaron hacia el óblast de Cherníhiv el 24 de febrero, sitiando su capital administrativa en cuatro días de combates . ^{[ 136 ]}^{[ 137 ]} Viajando por carreteras, las fuerzas rusas llegaron a Brovary , un suburbio oriental de Kiev, el 4 de marzo. ^{[ 121 ]}^{[ 120 ]}

Estados Unidos contactó a Zelenskyy y le ofreció ayuda para huir, para evitar que el ejército ruso intentara secuestrarlo o matarlo; Zelenskyy respondió que "La lucha está aquí; necesito munición, no que me lleven ". ^{[ 138 ]} A principios de marzo, los avances rusos a lo largo del lado oeste del Dnipro fueron limitados por las defensas ucranianas. ^{[ 121 ]}^{[ 120 ]} El 5 de marzo, un convoy ruso , de 64 kilómetros (40 millas) de largo, según se informó, había avanzado poco hacia Kiev. ^[¹³⁹^] Los avances desde Chernihiv se detuvieron en gran medida al comenzar un asedio allí . Las fuerzas rusas avanzaron sobre Kiev desde el noroeste, capturando Bucha , Hostomel y Vorzel el 5 de marzo. ^[¹⁴⁰^]^[¹⁴¹^]^[¹⁴²^] Para el 11 de marzo, el largo convoy se había dispersado en gran medida y se había puesto a cubierto. ^[¹⁴³^] El 16 de marzo, las fuerzas ucranianas iniciaron una contraofensiva. ^[¹⁴⁴^] Incapaces de lograr una victoria rápida en Kiev, las fuerzas rusas recurrieron a bombardeos indiscriminados y a la guerra de asedio . ^[¹⁴⁵^]^[¹⁴⁶^]

El 25 de marzo, una contraofensiva ucraniana retomó ciudades al este y al oeste de Kiev. ^{[ 147 ]}^{[ 148 ]} Las tropas rusas en la zona de Bucha se retiraron hacia el norte. Las fuerzas ucranianas entraron en la ciudad el 1 de abril y recapturaron la región alrededor de Kiev y descubrieron pruebas de crímenes de guerra en Bucha . ^{[ 149 ]}^{[ 150 ]} El Pentágono confirmó el 6 de abril que el ejército ruso había abandonado el óblast de Cherníhiv ; ^{[ 151 ]} las autoridades locales dijeron que las tropas rusas habían abandonado el óblast de Sumy. ^{[ 152 ]} El secretario general de la OTAN, Jens Stoltenberg, dijo que la "retirada, reabastecimiento y redespliegue" de tropas rusas de la zona de Kiev debería interpretarse como una expansión de los planes de Putin para concentrar sus fuerzas en el este de Ucrania. ^{[ 131 ]}

Frente sur y oriental

El 24 de febrero, grupos de ataque rusos se desplazaron hacia el noroeste desde Crimea, capturando puentes sobre el Dniéper ^{[ 153 ]} y el Canal de Crimea del Norte . ^{[ 154 ]} El 1 de marzo, Jersón fue la primera ciudad importante en caer en manos de Rusia. ^{[ 155 ]} Las tropas rusas avanzaron sobre Mykolaiv y la atacaron , pero fueron repelidas. ^{[ 156 ]} Las fuerzas rusas se acercaron a la central nuclear de Zaporiyia ^{[ 157 ]} y sitiaron Enerhodar . Para el 25 de febrero, las unidades rusas habían comenzado a avanzar sobre Mariúpol . ^{[ 158 ]} Las fuerzas rusas capturaron Berdiansk . ^{[ 159 ]}^{[ 160 ]}^{[ 161 ]} El 1 de marzo, Denis Pushilin , jefe de la RPD, anunció que había rodeado Volnovakha . ^{[ 162 ]}

Para el 18 de marzo, Mariúpol estaba cercada y los combates habían llegado al centro de la ciudad, dificultando los esfuerzos para evacuar a los civiles. ^{[ 163 ]} Los rusos exigieron la rendición y los ucranianos se negaron. ^{[ 164 ]} El 27 de marzo, la viceprimera ministra ucraniana Olha Stefanishyna dijo que "más del 85 por ciento de toda la ciudad está destruida". ^{[ 165 ]} Rusia negó el paso seguro a Mariúpol a 50 autobuses enviados por la ONU para evacuar a los civiles. ^{[ 166 ]}^{[ 167 ]}

En el este, las tropas rusas intentaron capturar Járkov ^{[ 168 ]} y encontraron una fuerte resistencia ucraniana. Izium fue capturada por las fuerzas rusas el 1 de abril ^{[ 169 ]} tras una batalla que duró un mes. ^{[ 170 ]} El 25 de marzo, el Ministerio de Defensa ruso anunció que intentaría ocupar las principales ciudades del este de Ucrania. ^{[ 171 ]}

El 3 de abril, tras la retirada de las fuerzas rusas de Kiev, Rusia amplió su ataque al sur de Ucrania con bombardeos y ataques contra Odesa, Mykolaiv y la central nuclear de Zaporizhzhia. ^{[ 172 ]}^{[ 173 ]} Para el 7 de abril, la nueva concentración de tropas y tanques rusos alrededor de Izium, Sloviansk y Kramatorsk llevó a las autoridades ucranianas a aconsejar a los residentes que permanecían cerca de la frontera oriental que evacuaran al oeste de Ucrania. ^{[ 174 ]}

Frente sureste (8 de abril – 5 de septiembre de 2022)

Para el 17 de abril, el avance ruso en el frente sureste parecía obstaculizado por las fuerzas ucranianas en la gran y fuertemente fortificada planta siderúrgica de Azovstal y sus alrededores en Mariúpol. ^{[ 175 ]} El 19 de abril, Rusia lanzó un "ataque oriental" a través de un frente de 480 kilómetros (300 millas) que se extendía desde Járkov hasta Donetsk y Lugansk, con ataques simultáneos con misiles dirigidos nuevamente a Kiev y Leópolis. ^[¹⁷⁶^] Un funcionario de defensa estadounidense anónimo calificó la ofensiva rusa de "mínima en el mejor de los casos". ^[¹⁷⁷^]

Para el 30 de mayo, las disparidades entre la artillería rusa y la ucraniana eran evidentes, con la artillería ucraniana en clara inferioridad. ^{[ 178 ]} En respuesta a la indicación de Biden de que se proporcionaría artillería mejorada a Ucrania, Putin dijo que Rusia ampliaría su invasión para incluir nuevas ciudades y ordenó un ataque con misiles contra Kiev el 6 de junio después de no atacarla directamente durante semanas. ^{[ 179 ]} El 10 de junio, el subdirector del SBU , Vadym Skibitsky, declaró que durante la campaña de Sievierodonetsk, en el frente se decidiría el futuro de la invasión: ^{[ 180 ]}

Ahora es una guerra de artillería, y estamos perdiendo en ese aspecto. Todo depende de lo que [Occidente] nos proporcione. Ucrania tiene una pieza de artillería frente a 10 o 15 piezas rusas. Nuestros socios occidentales nos han dado aproximadamente el 10% de lo que poseen.

El 29 de junio, la directora de inteligencia estadounidense, Avril Haines, declaró que las agencias estadounidenses coinciden en que la invasión continuará "durante un período prolongado... En resumen, el panorama sigue siendo bastante sombrío y la actitud de Rusia hacia Occidente se está endureciendo". ^{[ 181 ]}

El portavoz principal del Ministerio de Defensa ruso , Igor Konashenkov , reveló que las tropas rusas estaban divididas entre los grupos de ejércitos "Centro", comandado por el coronel general Aleksander Lapin , y "Sur", comandado por el general de ejército Sergey Surovikin . ^{[ 182 ]} El 20 de julio, Lavrov anunció que Rusia respondería al aumento de la ayuda militar que Ucrania recibía del extranjero ampliando su operación militar especial a las regiones de Zaporiyia y Jersón . ^{[ 183 ]} Las Fuerzas Terrestres rusas comenzaron a reclutar batallones de voluntarios para crear un nuevo III Cuerpo de Ejército dentro del Distrito Militar Occidental, con una fuerza prevista de entre 16 000 y 60 000 efectivos. ^{[ 184 ]} Sus unidades fueron desplegadas en el frente alrededor de la contraofensiva de Járkov de septiembre , a tiempo para unirse a la retirada rusa. El III Ejército "se desintegró", según Forbes , teniendo poco impacto en el campo de batalla junto con otras fuerzas irregulares. ^{[ 185 ]}

Caída de Mariúpol

El 13 de abril, las fuerzas rusas intensificaron su ataque contra la planta siderúrgica de Azovstal . ^{[ 186 ]} El primer ministro ucraniano, Denys Shmyhal, declaró que los soldados ucranianos habían jurado ignorar el ultimátum de rendición y luchar hasta el final. ^{[ 175 ]} El 20 de abril, Putin afirmó que el asedio podía considerarse tácticamente completo, dado que los 500 soldados ucranianos atrincherados en búnkeres dentro de la planta siderúrgica y los aproximadamente 1000 civiles estaban aislados y sin posibilidad de recibir ayuda. ^{[ 187 ]}

Después de reunirse con Putin y Zelenskyy, el secretario general de la ONU, Guterres, dijo el 28 de abril que intentaría organizar una evacuación de Azovstal de acuerdo con las garantías de Putin. ^{[ 188 ]} El 30 de abril, las tropas rusas permitieron que los civiles salieran bajo protección de la ONU. ^{[ 189 ]} Para el 3 de mayo, después de permitir la salida de 100 civiles, las tropas rusas reanudaron su bombardeo. ^{[ 190 ]} El 6 de mayo, The Daily Telegraph informó que Rusia había utilizado bombas termobáricas contra los soldados restantes. Zelenskyy autorizó al comandante de la fábrica de acero a rendirse si fuera necesario. ^{[ 191 ]} El 7 de mayo, todos los civiles fueron evacuados. ^{[ 192 ]}

Tras la evacuación de los últimos civiles, 2000 soldados ucranianos permanecieron atrincherados allí; 700 resultaron heridos. Comunicaron una súplica para que se les abriera un corredor militar para evacuar, ya que temían ser ejecutados si se rendían. ^{[ 193 ]} Los informes de disidencia del 8 de mayo indicaron que el comandante de la infantería de marina ucraniana había adquirido tanques, municiones y personal sin autorización, había escapado de la posición y había huido. Los soldados restantes hablaron de una defensa debilitada como resultado, lo que permitió el avance de los ataques rusos. ^{[ 194 ]} Ilia Somolienko , subcomandante de las tropas ucranianas restantes, dijo: «Básicamente, estamos aquí, muertos. La mayoría lo sabemos, y por eso luchamos con tanta valentía». ^{[ 195 ]}

El 16 de mayo, el Estado Mayor ucraniano anunció que la guarnición de Mariúpol había "cumplido su misión de combate" y que habían comenzado las evacuaciones finales. 264 militares fueron evacuados a Olenivka, bajo control ruso, mientras que 53 que resultaron gravemente heridos fueron trasladados a un hospital en Novoazovsk , bajo control ruso. ^{[ 196 ]}^{[ 197 ]} Tras la evacuación, las fuerzas rusas y de la RPD controlaban completamente Mariúpol. El secretario de prensa ruso, Dmitry Peskov, dijo que Putin había garantizado que los combatientes que se rindieran serían tratados "de acuerdo con las normas internacionales", mientras que Zelenskyy dijo que "el trabajo de traer a los muchachos a casa continúa..." ^{[ 198 ]}

Caída de Sievierodonetsk y Lysychansk

El 11 de abril, Zelenskyy dijo que Ucrania esperaba una nueva ofensiva rusa en el este. ^{[ 199 ]} Funcionarios estadounidenses dijeron que Rusia se había retirado o había sido rechazada en otros lugares y que estaba preparando una retracción, reabastecimiento y redespliegue en el frente sureste de Ucrania. ^{[ 200 ]}^{[ 201 ]} Satélites militares fotografiaron convoyes rusos de infantería y unidades mecanizadas desplegándose hacia el sur desde Járkov hasta Izium el 11 de abril, aparentemente como parte del redespliegue ruso planeado. ^{[ 202 ]}

El 18 de abril, con Mariupol tomada por las fuerzas rusas, el gobierno ucraniano anunció que la segunda fase de la invasión reforzada de los óblasts de Donetsk, Luhansk y Kharkiv se había intensificado con fuerzas de invasión ampliadas que ocupaban el Donbás. ^{[ 203 ]} El 22 de mayo, la BBC informó que después de la caída de Mariupol, Rusia había intensificado las ofensivas en Luhansk y Donetsk mientras concentraba ataques con misiles y fuego de artillería intenso en Sievierodonetsk, la ciudad más grande bajo control ucraniano en el óblast de Luhansk. ^{[ 204 ]} El 23 de mayo, se informó que las fuerzas rusas entraron en Lyman , capturando la ciudad para el 26 de mayo. ^{[ 205 ]}^{[ 206 ]} Se informó que las fuerzas ucranianas abandonaron Sviatohirsk . ^{[ 207 ]} Para el 24 de mayo, las fuerzas rusas capturaron Svitlodarsk . ^{[ 208 ]} El 30 de mayo, Reuters informó que las tropas rusas habían penetrado las afueras de Sievierodonetsk. ^{[ 209 ]} Para el 2 de junio, The Washington Post informó que Sievierodonetsk estaba al borde de la capitulación con más del 80% en manos de las tropas rusas. ^{[ 210 ]} El 3 de junio, según informes, las fuerzas ucranianas comenzaron un contraataque en Sievierodonetsk. Para el 4 de junio, fuentes del gobierno ucraniano afirmaron que se había recapturado el 20% o más de la ciudad. ^{[ 211 ]}

Las autoridades ucranianas estimaron que 800 civiles ucranianos estaban sitiados en la fábrica química Azot en Sievierodonetsk; los separatistas respaldados por Rusia dijeron que albergaba entre 300 y 400 soldados. ^{[ 212 ]}^{[ 213 ]} Con las defensas ucranianas de Sievierodonetsk debilitadas, las tropas rusas comenzaron a intensificar su ataque contra la ciudad vecina de Lysychansk . ^{[ 214 ]} El 20 de junio se informó que las tropas rusas continuaron afianzando su control sobre Sievierodonetsk capturando aldeas circundantes. ^{[ 215 ]}

El 24 de junio, CNN informó que, en medio de tácticas de tierra arrasada por parte de las tropas rusas que avanzaban, las fuerzas armadas de Ucrania recibieron la orden de evacuar Sievierodonetsk; varios cientos de civiles que se refugiaban en la planta química Azot quedaron atrás, y algunos compararon su situación con la de los habitantes de Mariupol. ^{[ 216 ]} El 3 de julio, el Ministerio de Defensa ruso afirmó que Lysychansk había sido capturada y ocupada. ^{[ 217 ]} El 4 de julio, The Guardian informó que, tras la caída del óblast de Luhansk, las tropas rusas continuarían su invasión en el óblast adyacente de Donetsk para atacar las ciudades de Sloviansk y Bakhmut . ^{[ 218 ]}

Frente de Zaporizhzhia

Las fuerzas rusas continuaron disparando misiles y lanzando bombas sobre Dnipro y Zaporizhzhia . ^{[ 176 ]} Los misiles rusos destruyeron el Aeropuerto Internacional de Dnipro el 10 de abril. ^{[ 219 ]} El 2 de mayo, la ONU, según informes con la cooperación de las tropas rusas, evacuó a unos 100 sobrevivientes del asedio de Mariúpol. ^{[ 220 ]} El 28 de junio, Reuters informó que un ataque con misiles rusos contra Kremenchuk , detonado en un centro comercial, había matado al menos a 18 personas. El presidente francés Macron lo calificó de " crimen de guerra ". ^{[ 221 ]}

El presidente de la agencia nuclear ucraniana Energoatom calificó la situación en la central nuclear de Zaporizhzhia de "extremadamente tensa", afirmando que, si bien era operada por personal ucraniano, estaba controlada por hasta 500 soldados rusos, y que Rusia bombardeaba zonas cercanas y almacenaba armas en la planta. ^{[ 222 ]} El 19 de agosto, Rusia accedió a permitir el acceso de los inspectores del OIEA a la planta tras una llamada de Macron a Putin. En julio de 2023, el acceso a la planta seguía restringido. ^{[ 223 ]}

Rusia informó que hasta el 18 de agosto se habían registrado 12 ataques con explosiones de 50 proyectiles de artillería en la planta y en la ciudad de Enerhodar , donde se ubica la empresa . ^{[ 224 ]} Tobias Ellwood , presidente del Comité Selecto de Defensa del Reino Unido , y el congresista estadounidense Adam Kinzinger dijeron que las fugas de radiación constituirían una violación del Tratado del Atlántico Norte , según el cual un ataque contra un miembro de la OTAN es un ataque contra todos ellos. ^{[ 225 ]}^{[ 226 ]}

Anexiones rusas y pérdidas por ocupación (6 de septiembre - 11 de noviembre de 2022)

El 6 de septiembre de 2022, las fuerzas ucranianas lanzaron una contraofensiva sorpresa en la región de Járkov , comenzando cerca de Balakliia , liderada por el general Syrskyi . ^{[ 227 ]} Un Kiev envalentonado lanzó una contraofensiva el 12 de septiembre alrededor de Járkov, con el éxito suficiente para que Rusia admitiera la pérdida de posiciones clave y para que The New York Times dijera que había dañado la imagen de un "Putin poderoso". Kiev buscó más armas de Occidente para sostener la contraofensiva. ^{[ 228 ]} El 21 de septiembre de 2022, Vladimir Putin anunció una movilización parcial , y el ministro de Defensa, Serguéi Shoigú, dijo que se llamaría a 300.000 reservistas. ^{[ 229 ]} También dijo que su país usaría "todos los medios" para "defenderse". Mykhailo Podolyak, asesor de Zelenskyy, dijo que la decisión era predecible y que era un intento de justificar "los fracasos de Rusia". ^{[ 230 ]} La ministra británica de Asuntos Exteriores, Gillian Keegan, calificó la situación de "escalada", ^{[ 231 ]} mientras que el expresidente mongol Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj acusó a Rusia de utilizar a los mongoles rusos como "carne de cañón". ^{[ 232 ]}

Anexión rusa de las regiones de Donetsk, Jersón, Lugansk y Zaporiyia.

A finales de septiembre de 2022, funcionarios rusos en Ucrania organizaron referendos sobre la anexión de la República Popular de Donetsk y la República Popular de Lugansk, así como de las administraciones militares designadas por Rusia en los óblasts de Jersón y Zaporiyia. Denunciados por el gobierno ucraniano y sus aliados como elecciones fraudulentas , los resultados oficiales mostraron una abrumadora mayoría a favor de la anexión. ^{[ 233 ]}

El 30 de septiembre de 2022, Vladimir Putin anunció la anexión de las regiones ucranianas de Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson y Zaporizhzhia. ^{[ 234 ]} Ucrania, Estados Unidos, la Unión Europea y las Naciones Unidas denunciaron la anexión como ilegal. ^{[ 235 ]}

Contraofensiva de Jersón

El 29 de agosto, Zelenskyy anunció el inicio de una contraofensiva a gran escala en el sureste para recuperar el territorio ocupado por Rusia en las regiones de Jersón y Mykolaiv. ^{[ 236 ]} Para el 4 de septiembre, las fuerzas ucranianas habían retomado la aldea de Vysokopillia . ^{[ 237 ]} Los ataques ucranianos también continuaron a lo largo del frente sur, aunque los informes sobre cambios territoriales eran en gran medida inverificables. ^{[ 238 ]}

En octubre, las fuerzas ucranianas avanzaron más al sur hacia la ciudad de Jersón, tomando el control de 1170 kilómetros cuadrados (450 millas cuadradas ) , y los combates se extendieron hasta Dudchany . ^[²³⁹^]^[²⁴⁰^] El 9 de noviembre, el ministro de Defensa Shoigu ordenó a las fuerzas rusas que abandonaran parte del óblast de Jersón, incluida la ciudad de Jersón , y se trasladaran a la orilla oriental del Dniéper. ^[²⁴¹^] El 11 de noviembre, las tropas ucranianas entraron en Jersón cuando Rusia completó su retirada. Esto significó que las fuerzas rusas ya no tenían una cabeza de playa en la orilla occidental del Dniéper. ^[²⁴²^]

Contraofensiva de Járkov

Retenido por Ucrania Retomado por Ucrania Ocupado por Rusia Mapa del frente de Járkov al 14 de julio de 2026

Las fuerzas ucranianas lanzaron otra contraofensiva sorpresa el 6 de septiembre en el óblast de Járkov, cerca de Balakliia, liderada por el general Syrskyi. ^{[ 227 ]} Para el 7 de septiembre, las fuerzas ucranianas habían avanzado 20 kilómetros (12 millas) en territorio ocupado por Rusia y afirmaron haber recapturado aproximadamente 400 kilómetros cuadrados (150 millas cuadradas ) . Los comentaristas rusos dijeron que esto probablemente se debía al traslado de las fuerzas rusas a Jersón. ^[²⁴³^] El 8 de septiembre, las fuerzas ucranianas capturaron Balakliia y avanzaron hasta situarse a 15 kilómetros (9,3 millas) de Kupiansk . ^[²⁴⁴^] Los analistas militares dijeron que las fuerzas ucranianas parecían estar avanzando hacia Kupiansk, un importante nudo ferroviario, con el objetivo de cortar el paso a las fuerzas rusas en Izium desde el norte. ^[²⁴⁵^]

El 9 de septiembre, la administración de ocupación rusa del óblast de Járkov anunció que "evacuaría" a la población civil de Izium, Kupiansk y Velykyi Burluk . El Instituto para el Estudio de la Guerra (ISW) afirmó que creía que Kupiansk probablemente caería en las próximas 72 horas, ^{[ 246 ]} mientras que unidades de reserva rusas fueron enviadas a la zona por carretera y helicóptero. ^{[ 247 ]} En la mañana del 10 de septiembre, surgieron fotos que supuestamente mostraban a tropas ucranianas izando la bandera ucraniana en el centro de Kupiansk, ^{[ 248 ]} y el ISW declaró que las fuerzas ucranianas habían capturado aproximadamente 2500 kilómetros cuadrados (970 millas cuadradas ) . ^[²⁴⁹^] Reuters informó que las posiciones rusas en el noreste de Ucrania habían "colapsado" ante el asalto ucraniano, y que las fuerzas rusas se vieron obligadas a retirarse de su base en Izium tras quedar aisladas por la captura de Kupiansk. ^[²⁵⁰^]

Para el 15 de septiembre, una evaluación del Ministerio de Defensa del Reino Unido confirmó que Rusia había perdido o se había retirado de casi todas sus posiciones al oeste del río Oskil , abandonando activos militares de alto valor. ^{[ 251 ]} La ofensiva continuó avanzando hacia el este y, para el 1 de octubre, las fuerzas ucranianas habían liberado Lyman . ^{[ 252 ]}

Estancamiento invernal, campaña de desgaste y primer aumento de tropas (12 de noviembre de 2022 – 7 de junio de 2023)

Tras el fin de las dos contraofensivas ucranianas, los combates se estancaron durante el invierno, ^{[ 253 ]} con numerosas bajas pero con escaso movimiento del frente. ^{[ 254 ]} Rusia lanzó una autoproclamada ofensiva invernal en el este de Ucrania, pero la campaña se estancó con escasos avances. ^{[ 253 ]}^{[ 255 ]} Los analistas atribuyeron el fracaso a la falta de "hombres entrenados" de Rusia y a problemas de suministro de munición de artillería, entre otros. ^{[ 253 ]}^{[ 255 ]} A finales de mayo, Mark Galeotti evaluó que "tras la fallida y mal concebida ofensiva invernal rusa, que desperdició la oportunidad de consolidar sus fuerzas, Ucrania se encuentra en una posición relativamente fuerte". ^{[ 256 ]}

El 7 de febrero, The New York Times informó que los rusos habían movilizado recientemente a casi 200.000 soldados para participar en la ofensiva en el Donbás. ^{[ 257 ]} La empresa militar privada rusa Grupo Wagner adquirió mayor protagonismo en la guerra, ^{[ 258 ]} liderando "avances lentos" en Bakhmut con decenas de miles de reclutas de batallones de prisioneros que participaron en asaltos "casi suicidas" contra posiciones ucranianas. ^{[ 255 ]}

A finales de enero de 2023, los combates se intensificaron en el sur del óblast de Zaporiyia, con numerosas bajas en ambos bandos. ^{[ 259 ]} En las zonas cercanas del sur del óblast de Donetsk, un intenso asalto ruso de tres semanas cerca de la ciudad minera de carbón de Vuhledar fue considerado la mayor batalla de tanques de la guerra hasta la fecha y terminó en desastre para las fuerzas rusas, que perdieron "al menos 130 tanques y vehículos blindados de transporte de personal", según comandantes ucranianos. El Ministerio de Defensa británico declaró que "toda una brigada rusa fue prácticamente aniquilada". ^{[ 260 ]}^{[ 261 ]}

A finales de 2022, cuando las bajas rusas superaron las 50 000, el ejército ruso introdujo tropas de barrera . El Ministerio de Defensa del Reino Unido declaró que se trata de unidades que amenazan con disparar a sus propios soldados en retirada para forzar ofensivas. En marzo de 2023, soldados rusos grabaron un vídeo dirigido a Putin en el que afirmaban que, tras sufrir bajas, intentaron regresar a su cuartel general, pero sus superiores les negaron la evacuación y colocaron tropas de barrera tras ellos, amenazando con "destruirlos". ^{[ 262 ]} En particular, se ha informado de que las unidades Storm-Z se mantienen "en línea" mediante tropas de barrera. ^{[ 263 ]}

Batalla de Bakhmut

Tras la derrota en Jersón y Járkov, las fuerzas rusas y wagnerianas se centraron en tomar Bajmut y romper el estancamiento que se mantenía allí desde el inicio de la guerra. Las fuerzas rusas intentaron cercar la ciudad, atacando desde el norte a través de Soledar . Tras sufrir numerosas bajas, las fuerzas rusas y wagnerianas tomaron el control de Soledar el 16 de enero de 2023. ^{[ 264 ]}^{[ 265 ]} A principios de febrero de 2023, Bajmut se enfrentaba a ataques desde el norte, el sur y el este, con las únicas líneas de suministro ucranianas provenientes de Chasiv Yar, al oeste. ^{[ 266 ]}

El 4 de marzo, el teniente de alcalde de Bakhmut informó a los medios de comunicación que se estaban produciendo enfrentamientos callejeros en la ciudad. ^{[ 267 ]} El 20 de mayo de 2023, el Grupo Wagner se atribuyó el control total de Bakhmut, y al día siguiente Rusia declaró oficialmente la victoria en la batalla, ^{[ 268 ]} tras lo cual las fuerzas de Wagner se retiraron de la ciudad y fueron reemplazadas por unidades regulares rusas. ^{[ 269 ]}

Contraofensivas ucranianas de 2023 (8 de junio de 2023 – 1 de diciembre de 2023)

En junio de 2023, las fuerzas ucranianas lanzaron contraofensivas en múltiples frentes. ^{[ 270 ]}^{[ 271 ]} Los esfuerzos se enfrentaron a una fuerte resistencia rusa. ^{[ 272 ]} Para el 12 de junio, Ucrania informó de avances y asentamientos liberados. ^{[ 273 ]} El 24 de junio, la rebelión del Grupo Wagner se desarrolló brevemente antes de un acuerdo de paz. ^{[ 274 ]} A finales de junio, Ucrania recuperó territorio en Donbás y logró avances en el óblast de Jersón. ^{[ 275 ]} Rusia minó intensamente áreas, convirtiendo a Ucrania en el país más minado del mundo. ^{[ 276 ]} Tras la salida de Rusia de la Iniciativa de Granos del Mar Negro, Ucrania atacó buques rusos. ^{[ 277 ]} En septiembre de 2023, los ataques rusos alcanzaron instalaciones energéticas ucranianas. ^{[ 278 ]} Estados Unidos anunció el envío de misiles ATACMS de largo alcance ^{[ 279 ]} y Ucrania atacó la base naval de Sebastopol. ^{[ 280 ]}^{[ 281 ]}

Entre octubre y diciembre de 2023, las fuerzas ucranianas cruzaron el río Dniéper a pesar de sufrir grandes pérdidas. El 1 de diciembre de 2023, Zelenskyy declaró que la contraofensiva ucraniana había fracasado. ^{[ 282 ]} En diciembre de 2023, los medios de comunicación describieron la contraofensiva ucraniana como un fracaso en la recuperación de territorio significativo y en el cumplimiento de sus objetivos. ^{[ 282 ]}^{[ 283 ]}^{[ 284 ]}

Batalla de Avdiivka

En octubre de 2023, se informó de crecientes motines entre las tropas rusas debido a las cuantiosas pérdidas sufridas en las ofensivas rusas en torno a Avdiivka , con escasez de artillería, alimentos y agua, así como un mando deficiente. ^{[ 285 ]} En noviembre, la inteligencia británica afirmó que en las últimas semanas se habían registrado «probablemente algunas de las tasas de bajas rusas más altas de la guerra hasta el momento». ^{[ 286 ]}

El 17 de febrero de 2024, Rusia capturó Avdiivka , un bastión de larga data para Ucrania que había sido descrito como una "puerta de entrada" a la cercana Donetsk . ^{[ 287 ]}^{[ 288 ]}^{[ 289 ]} Descrita por el periodista de Forbes David Axe como una victoria rusa pírrica, los Ejércitos de Armas Combinadas 2.º y 41.º rusos terminaron con 16 000 hombres muertos, decenas de miles heridos y alrededor de 700 vehículos perdidos. ^{[ 290 ]}

La escasez de municiones en Ucrania, causada por el estancamiento político en el Congreso estadounidense y la falta de capacidad de producción en Europa, contribuyó a la retirada ucraniana de Avdiivka y se hizo sentir en todo el frente, según Time . Esta escasez obligó a Ucrania a racionar sus unidades para disparar solo 2000 proyectiles al día, en comparación con los 10 000 que Rusia disparaba diariamente. ^{[ 291 ]}

Ofensivas rusas e incursión ucraniana (abril de 2024 - actualidad)

ofensivas rusas de primavera y verano

El 10 de mayo de 2024, Rusia inició una nueva ofensiva en el óblast de Járkov . Rusia capturó una docena de aldeas; para el 25 de mayo, Ucrania había evacuado a más de 11.000 personas de la región desde el inicio de la ofensiva. El 17 de mayo, Ucrania declaró que sus fuerzas habían frenado el avance ruso, y el 25 de mayo, Zelenskyy afirmó que las fuerzas ucranianas habían asegurado el "control de combate" de las zonas donde las tropas rusas habían entrado en el noreste del óblast de Járkov. Funcionarios rusos declararon que estaban "avanzando en todas direcciones" y que el objetivo era crear una "zona de amortiguación" para las regiones fronterizas en conflicto. ^{[ 292 ]}^{[ 293 ]} El 7 de junio, la Casa Blanca declaró que la ofensiva se había estancado y que era improbable que avanzara más. ^{[ 294 ]}

Tras la batalla de Avdiivka, las fuerzas rusas avanzaron hacia el noroeste para formar un saliente, capturando Ocheretyne a finales de abril. ^{[ 295 ]}^{[ 296 ]} Las fuerzas rusas también lanzaron una ofensiva hacia Chasiv Yar a principios de abril, ^{[ 297 ]} y a principios de julio habían capturado su distrito más oriental. ^{[ 298 ]}^{[ 299 ]} Otra ofensiva hacia Toretsk se lanzó el 18 de junio, ^{[ 300 ]} con el objetivo de capturar la ciudad, ^{[ 301 ]} y según el observador militar ucraniano Nazar Voloshyn, flanqueando Chasiv Yar desde el sur. ^{[ 302 ]} Las fuerzas rusas expandieron el saliente al noroeste de Avdiivka en julio, y, el 19 de julio de 2024, lograron un avance hacia la ciudad operacionalmente importante de Pokrovsk . ^{[ 303 ]}^{[ 304 ]}

Ofensiva ucraniana en Rusia

El 6 de agosto de 2024, Ucrania lanzó su primera ofensiva directa en territorio ruso, la mayor de cualquier incursión proucraniana desde el inicio de la invasión, en el óblast de Kursk, fronterizo con Rusia . ^{[ 305 ]} El eje principal del avance inicial se centró en dirección a Sudzha , a 10 kilómetros (6,2 millas) de la frontera, ^[³⁰⁶^] que, según informó el presidente Zelenskyy, fue capturada el 15 de agosto. ^[³⁰⁷^] Ucrania, aprovechando la falta de unidades y defensas experimentadas a lo largo de la frontera con el óblast de Kursk, rápidamente se apoderó de territorio en los primeros días de la incursión. ^[³⁰⁸^] La incursión obligó a Rusia a desviar miles de tropas del territorio ucraniano ocupado. ^[³⁰⁹^]^[³¹⁰^]

A pesar de los repetidos plazos fijados por Putin durante 2024 para expulsar a las tropas ucranianas, las fuerzas rusas no lo habían logrado a finales de enero de 2025, priorizando los avances en el óblast de Donetsk sobre el saliente de Kursk. Sin embargo, para el verano de 2025, las fuerzas ucranianas habían sido prácticamente repelidas de la zona. ^{[ 311 ]}

Finales de 2024 – principios de 2026: Avances rusos

Las tropas rusas continuaron avanzando en el este de Ucrania a un ritmo más rápido que antes de la ofensiva de Kursk, ^{[ 313 ]} incluso hacia la ciudad de Pokrovsk, de gran importancia operativa . ^{[ 314 ]}^{[ 315 ]}^{[ 316 ]}

A finales de agosto de 2024, las fuerzas rusas tomaron Novohrodivka , al sureste de Pokrovsk, ^{[ 313 ]} mientras capturaban Krasnohorivka ^{[ 317 ]} y Ukrainsk ^{[ 318 ]} a principios de septiembre. ^{[ 318 ]} A finales de septiembre, comenzó un asalto ruso a la ciudad de Vuhledar, ocupada desde hacía mucho tiempo ; ^{[ 319 ]} después de su caída el 1 de octubre, la ciudad, con una población de antes de la guerra de aproximadamente 14 000 habitantes, fue descrita como una "ruina extensa". ^{[ 320 ]}^{[ 321 ]}

El 30 de octubre de 2024, se informó que el general de división ucraniano Dmytro Marchenko había dicho que "nuestro frente se ha desmoronado" debido a la disminución del suministro de municiones, los problemas con el reclutamiento militar y el liderazgo deficiente. Dijo que el plan de victoria de Zelensky estaba demasiado centrado en el apoyo occidental. Los informes de los funcionarios occidentales también se habían vuelto más pesimistas. ^{[ 322 ]}^{[ 323 ]} Según la Fiscalía General, a finales de noviembre de 2024 se habían iniciado más de 100 000 casos penales por deserción . ^{[ 324 ]} Las fuerzas rusas capturaron la ciudad de Kurakhove a finales de diciembre de 2024 y la cercana central eléctrica de Kurakhove en enero de 2025. ^{[ 325 ]}^{[ 326 ]}

A principios de 2025, las fuerzas rusas avanzaron en el este de Ucrania, ^{[ 327 ]}^{[ 328 ]} y Rusia afirmó haber capturado Velyka Novosilka en enero. ^{[ 329 ]}^{[ 330 ]} Rusia continuó los ataques contra la infraestructura energética ucraniana. ^{[ 331 ]} En febrero de 2025, el gobierno de Ucrania aprobó un contrato de un año para voluntarios de entre 18 y 24 años que no estaban sujetos a movilización . ^{[ 332 ]} Para abril de 2025, los avances rusos se habían ralentizado, según Seth Jones del Centro de Estudios Estratégicos e Internacionales . ^{[ 333 ]} Los ataques rusos contra civiles también se intensificaron, y en junio se registró el mayor número de víctimas civiles en Ucrania desde el inicio de la invasión, con 232 muertos y 1343 heridos. ^{[ 334 ]} Rusia mató al menos a 21 civiles, incluidos niños, en el segundo ataque más grande de la guerra durante la noche del 27 al 28 de agosto, dañando instalaciones diplomáticas europeas junto con infraestructura civil. ^{[ 335 ]}

En marzo de 2025, Putin declaró que «hay razones para creer que podemos acabar con las fuerzas ucranianas», ante la previsión de una ofensiva rusa de verano. Rusia planeaba expandirse hacia Sumy y Járkov; sin embargo, la ofensiva en sí se consideró un fracaso, con modestos avances a costa de numerosas bajas. Para septiembre de 2025, las fuerzas rusas no habían logrado ningún avance en el frente, y Ucrania seguía controlando objetivos estratégicos clave como Pokrovsk. ^{[ 336 ]}^{[ 337 ]}

Rusia intensificó los ataques contra la infraestructura energética ucraniana. ^{[ 338 ]} En respuesta, Ucrania atacó las redes energéticas y logísticas rusas, incluyendo instalaciones petroleras, lo que provocó una crisis de combustible en Rusia . ^{[ 339 ]}^{[ 340 ]}^{[ 341 ]}

Durante octubre y noviembre de 2025, las fuerzas rusas intensificaron las operaciones alrededor de Pokrovsk. Rusia avanzó cientos de millas cuadradas, ejerciendo presión sobre las líneas defensivas ucranianas. ^{[ 342 ]} A finales de octubre, se produjeron combates dentro de la propia ciudad de Pokrovsk. ^{[ 343 ]} El 1 de diciembre, Rusia afirmó haber capturado la ciudad, aunque todavía había fuerzas ucranianas en la parte norte. ^{[ 344 ]}^{[ 345 ]} Según los informes, Rusia capturó completamente Pokrovsk , Myrnohrad y Huliaipole a principios de 2026. ^{[ 346 ]}^{[ 347 ]}^{[ 348 ]}

En diciembre de 2025, tras las afirmaciones rusas de controlar Kupiansk, Zelenskyy visitó la ciudad. Un comandante ucraniano declaró que las tropas rusas estaban rodeadas. ^{[ 349 ]}^{[ 350 ]} El ISW informó que blogueros militares ultranacionalistas rusos reconocieron la gravedad de la situación para las fuerzas rusas y que las afirmaciones rusas de avances en la zona formaban parte de una estrategia de guerra cognitiva . ^{[ 351 ]}

A principios de 2026, Ucrania logró sus mayores avances en el campo de batalla en más de dos años y medio (sin contar la ofensiva de Kursk): según datos del ISW, recuperó más de 200 kilómetros cuadrados (77 millas cuadradas ) entre el 11 y el 15 de febrero. El avance coincidió con el bloqueo del uso de Starlink por parte del ejército ruso , lo que provocó problemas de comunicación agravados por el corte del acceso a Telegram por parte del gobierno ruso. A pesar de esto, Rusia ganó territorio neto en febrero. ^[³⁵²^]^[³⁵³^] Funcionarios occidentales también dijeron que, por primera vez desde la invasión, Rusia estaba sufriendo más bajas que las que podía reclutar nuevo personal. ^[³⁵⁴^]

En abril de 2026, las Fuerzas de Sistemas No Tripulados de Ucrania lanzaron la campaña de ataque a media distancia contra los territorios ocupados por Rusia , especialmente Crimea , con drones de ataque unidireccional . ^{[ 355 ]}^{[ 356 ]}

A mediados de mayo de 2026, la ofensiva de primavera de Rusia fue descrita como un fracaso por expertos en el campo de batalla y analistas militares, y Ucrania recuperó más territorio del que había perdido por segunda vez en el año. ^{[ 357 ]}^{[ 358 ]} Ese mismo mes, Rusia lanzó uno de los mayores ataques aéreos combinados de la guerra contra Kiev y otras ciudades ucranianas. ^{[ 359 ]} En Kiev, un edificio residencial fue destruido, causando la muerte de 24 personas. ^{[ 360 ]}^{[ 361 ]}

Espacios de batalla

Dominio

Los comandantes ucranianos Oleksandr Syrskyi y Valerii Zaluzhnyi

Rusia

Como jefe de Estado, Vladimir Putin es el comandante supremo de las fuerzas armadas rusas. Según informes, Putin ha intervenido en decisiones operacionales, pasando por alto a los altos mandos y dando órdenes directamente a los comandantes de brigada. ^{[ 362 ]} Además, durante el período inicial de la guerra, las fuerzas rusas sufrieron la falta de un mando unificado, con el liderazgo de la operación dividido entre los cuatro distritos militares involucrados. ^{[ 363 ]}

Según funcionarios estadounidenses, el comandante del Distrito Militar Sur ruso, Aleksandr Dvornikov , fue puesto al mando general el 8 de abril de 2022. ^{[ 364 ]} Analistas de la organización OSINT CIT especularon que Dvornikov había sido reemplazado por Gennady Zhidko a finales de mayo de 2022, ^{[ 365 ]} y funcionarios estadounidenses citados en The New York Times también especularon que había "desaparecido". ^{[ 366 ]}

En octubre de 2022, el Ministerio de Defensa ruso anunció oficialmente que Sergei Surovikin había sido puesto al mando de las fuerzas rusas que combatían en Ucrania. Según el analista John Hardie, quien escribió para el Long War Journal , Surovikin fue "probablemente el primer comandante unificado verdadero de la operación". Surovikin, a quien Hardie describió como "un comandante competente", fue reemplazado en enero de 2023 por Valery Gerasimov . El Ministerio de Defensa ruso afirmó que el reemplazo de Surovikin se debió a la necesidad de un oficial de mayor rango para llevar a cabo un "mayor abanico de tareas" y aumentar la "cooperación entre los servicios y ramas de las Fuerzas Armadas". Según Hardie, el reemplazo de Surovikin pudo haber reflejado "la política interna de poder". ^{[ 367 ]}

Gerasimov seguía al mando general de las fuerzas rusas en la guerra de Ucrania cuando alcanzó la edad de jubilación obligatoria en septiembre de 2025, pero se le permitió permanecer en el cargo. ^{[ 368 ]} Según el analista australiano y ex general Mick Ryan, quien escribió en septiembre de 2023, las fuerzas rusas se beneficiaron de esta unificación del mando. ^{[ 369 ]}^{[ 363 ]}

Particularmente durante los primeros meses de la guerra, Rusia sufrió un número notablemente elevado de bajas en las filas de sus oficiales, incluidos varios generales . ^{[ 370 ]}

Ucrania

El general Valerii Zaluzhnyi fue comandante en jefe de las Fuerzas Armadas de Ucrania desde antes del inicio de la guerra en febrero de 2022. El general estadounidense Mark Milley escribió en mayo de 2022 que Zaluzhnyi había "emergido como la mente militar que su país necesitaba. Su liderazgo permitió a las fuerzas armadas ucranianas adaptarse rápidamente con iniciativa en el campo de batalla contra los rusos". ^{[ 371 ]} Tras las supuestas disputas entre Zaluzhnyi y Volodímir Zelenski, Zaluzhnyi fue reemplazado por Oleksandr Syrskyi en febrero de 2024. Según Mykhailo Podolyak , el reemplazo de Zaluzhnyi estuvo motivado por la necesidad de revisar las tácticas y evitar el estancamiento del frente tras la contraofensiva ucraniana de 2023. ^{[ 372 ]}

Ataques con misiles y guerra aérea

La guerra aérea comenzó el primer día de la invasión. Se registraron docenas de ataques con misiles en todo el este y el oeste de Ucrania, ^{[ 120 ]}^{[ 121 ]} llegando incluso hasta Lviv, en el oeste. ^{[ 373 ]}

Para septiembre de 2022, las fuerzas aéreas ucranianas habían derribado unos 55 aviones de guerra rusos. ^{[ 374 ]} A mediados de octubre, las fuerzas rusas lanzaron ataques con misiles contra la infraestructura ucraniana , con la intención de inutilizar las instalaciones energéticas. ^{[ 375 ]} A finales de noviembre, cientos de civiles habían muerto o resultado heridos, ^{[ 376 ]} y los apagones rotativos habían dejado a millones sin electricidad. ^{[ 377 ]}

En diciembre de 2022, drones lanzados desde Ucrania presuntamente llevaron a cabo varios ataques contra las bases aéreas de Dyagilevo y Engels en el oeste de Rusia , causando la muerte de 10 personas y daños graves a dos aviones Tu-95 . ^{[ 378 ]}

El 1 de junio de 2025, Ucrania llevó a cabo la " Operación Telaraña ", atacando varias bases aéreas en lo profundo del territorio ruso con drones de contrabando. La operación se consideró un éxito, ^{[ 379 ]} y Ucrania afirmó haber dañado o destruido 41 aeronaves de alto valor, incluidos bombarderos estratégicos utilizados para coordinar y lanzar ataques contra ciudades ucranianas. ^{[ 380 ]} Funcionarios estadounidenses estimaron una cifra menor, afirmando que Ucrania había alcanzado 20 aviones, destruyendo 10. ^{[ 381 ]} Se estima que la operación causó daños por miles de millones de dólares a la aviación rusa. ^{[ 382 ]}^{[ 383 ]}^{[ 384 ]}^{[ 385 ]}

Ataques en Crimea

El 31 de julio de 2022, se cancelaron las conmemoraciones del Día de la Armada rusa después de que, según informes, un ataque con drones hiriera a varias personas en el cuartel general de la Flota rusa del Mar Negro en Sebastopol. ^{[ 386 ]} El 9 de agosto de 2022, se reportaron grandes explosiones en la base aérea de Saky en el oeste de Crimea. Las imágenes satelitales mostraron al menos ocho aeronaves dañadas o destruidas. ^{[ 387 ]} El general ucraniano Valerii Zaluzhnyi se atribuyó la responsabilidad el 7 de septiembre. ^{[ 388 ]}

Una semana después, Rusia culpó de un "sabotaje" por las explosiones y el incendio en un depósito de armas cerca de Dzhankoi, en el noreste de Crimea, que también dañó una línea ferroviaria y una central eléctrica. El jefe regional ruso, Sergei Aksyonov, dijo que 2000 personas fueron evacuadas de la zona. ^{[ 389 ]} El 18 de agosto, se reportaron explosiones en la base aérea de Belbek, al norte de Sebastopol. ^{[ 390 ]} El 8 de octubre de 2022, el puente de Kerch , que une la Crimea ocupada con Rusia, se derrumbó parcialmente debido a una explosión . ^{[ 391 ]} El 17 de julio de 2023, hubo otra gran explosión en el puente. ^{[ 392 ]} El 3 de junio de 2025, un ataque con explosivos submarinos dañó los cimientos del puente; el tráfico se reanudó en cuestión de horas. ^{[ 393 ]}

Ataques rusos contra infraestructura civil ucraniana

Desde 2022, Rusia ha llevado a cabo ataques contra los sistemas eléctricos y de agua ucranianos. ^{[ 394 ]} El 6 de octubre de 2022, el ejército ucraniano informó que las fuerzas rusas habían lanzado 86 drones kamikaze Shahed 136 , y entre el 30 de septiembre y el 6 de octubre, las fuerzas ucranianas habían destruido 24 de los 46 lanzados. ^{[ 395 ]} El 8 de octubre, se anunció que el general del ejército Sergey Surovikin estaría al mando de todas las fuerzas rusas en la fuerza de su novedosa técnica de asalto aéreo. ^{[ 396 ]} El 16 de octubre, The Washington Post informó que Irán estaba planeando suministrar a Rusia drones y misiles. ^{[ 397 ]} El 18 de octubre, el Departamento de Estado de EE. UU. acusó a Irán de violar la Resolución 2231 al vender drones Shahed 131 y Shahed 136 a Rusia, ^{[ 398 ]} coincidiendo con Francia y el Reino Unido. Irán negó haber enviado armas para la guerra de Ucrania. ^{[ 399 ]} El 22 de octubre, Francia, Gran Bretaña y Alemania pidieron una investigación de la ONU. ^{[ 400 ]} El 1 de noviembre, CNN informó que Irán se estaba preparando para enviar misiles balísticos y otras armas a Rusia para su uso en Ucrania. ^{[ 401 ]}

El 15 de noviembre de 2022, Rusia disparó 85 misiles contra la red eléctrica ucraniana , provocando cortes de energía en Kiev y regiones vecinas. ^{[ 402 ]} En marzo de 2023, The New York Times informó que Rusia había utilizado nuevos misiles hipersónicos en un ataque masivo con misiles contra Ucrania. Estos misiles son más eficaces para evadir las defensas antimisiles convencionales ucranianas. ^{[ 403 ]}

El Ministerio de Defensa del Reino Unido afirmó que los ataques contra la infraestructura ucraniana forman parte de la doctrina militar rusa «Operación Estratégica para la Destrucción de Objetivos de Importancia Crítica» (SODCIT), cuyo objetivo es desmoralizar a la población y forzar la capitulación del liderazgo ucraniano. ^{[ 404 ]} Según el Royal United Services Institute , la mitad de la capacidad de producción de electricidad de Ucrania había sido destruida. ^{[ 405 ]}

El 8 de julio de 2024, Rusia utilizó un misil Kh-101 ^{[ 406 ]} para matar a dos personas e herir a 16 en el Hospital Infantil Okhmatdyt en Kiev. ^{[ 407 ]}^{[ 408 ]}^{[ 409 ]}^{[ 410 ]} Al menos 20 civiles murieron en Kiev esa noche. ^{[ 411 ]}

A finales de 2024, Rusia pasó de atacar la infraestructura de distribución de energía a atacar centrales eléctricas, afectando al 15 % de la capacidad de generación de Ucrania anterior a la guerra. A partir del verano de 2025, los ataques volvieron a centrarse en la infraestructura, con un número mucho mayor de drones y misiles balísticos. También se realizaron ataques contra la producción de gas ucraniana, destruyendo el 60 % de su capacidad en octubre de 2025. ^{[ 338 ]}

Ataques ucranianos contra la producción petrolera rusa

En 2025, Ucrania intensificó sus esfuerzos para interrumpir la producción y exportación de petróleo rusas, utilizando ataques con drones y misiles con la ayuda de inteligencia occidental. A finales de octubre de 2025, se estimaba que el 50% de las 38 refinerías principales de Rusia habían sido atacadas más de una vez. El resultado fue una caída estimada en la producción de petróleo de entre el 10% y el 15%, lo que provocó un aumento en los precios internos del combustible y escasez en algunas regiones. ^{[ 338 ]}

Bloqueo naval y enfrentamientos

El 28 de febrero de 2022, Turquía invocó la Convención de Montreux de 1936 y cerró los estrechos del Bósforo y los Dardanelos a los buques de guerra rusos que no estaban registrados en bases del Mar Negro y regresaban a sus puertos de origen. Específicamente, negó el paso a cuatro buques de la armada rusa. ^{[ 412 ]} El 24 de febrero, el Servicio Estatal de Guardia Fronteriza de Ucrania anunció que buques de la Armada rusa habían comenzado un ataque en la Isla Serpiente . ^{[ 413 ]} El crucero de misiles guiados y buque insignia de la Flota del Mar Negro , Moskva y la patrullera Vasily Bykov bombardearon la isla. ^{[ 414 ]} El buque de guerra ruso ordenó a los ucranianos en la isla que se rindieran. Su respuesta fue "¡ Buque de guerra ruso, vete a la mierda! " ^{[ 415 ]} Después del bombardeo, soldados rusos desembarcaron y tomaron el control de la Isla Serpiente . ^{[ 416 ]} Rusia dijo el 26 de febrero que drones estadounidenses habían proporcionado inteligencia a la armada ucraniana para ayudarla a atacar buques de guerra rusos en el Mar Negro. Estados Unidos lo negó. ^{[ 417 ]}

El 3 de marzo, las fuerzas ucranianas en Mykolaiv hundieron la fragata Hetman Sahaidachny , buque insignia de la armada ucraniana, para evitar su captura. ^{[ 418 ]} El 24 de marzo, funcionarios ucranianos dijeron que un buque de desembarco ruso atracado en Berdiansk fue destruido por un ataque con cohetes ucranianos. ^{[ 159 ]}^{[ 419 ]} En marzo de 2022, la Organización Marítima Internacional (OMI) de la ONU buscó crear un corredor marítimo seguro para que los buques comerciales salieran de los puertos ucranianos. ^{[ 420 ]} El 27 de marzo, Rusia estableció un corredor marítimo de 80 millas (130 km) de largo y 3 millas (4,8 km) de ancho a través de su Zona de Exclusión Marítima , para el tránsito de buques mercantes desde el borde de las aguas territoriales ucranianas al sureste de Odesa. ^[⁴²¹^]^[⁴²²^]

Según fuentes ucranianas y un alto funcionario estadounidense, el Moskva fue ^alcanzado el 13 ^de abril por dos misiles de crucero antibuque ucranianos ^Neptune . El Ministerio de Defensa ruso declaró que el buque ^de guerra había sufrido graves daños por una explosión de municiones causada por un incendio y que su tripulación había sido evacuada. El portavoz del Pentágono, John Kirby ^,^{informó el 14 de abril que las imágenes satelitales mostraban que el}^buque de guerra ruso había sufrido una explosión considerable a bordo, pero que se dirigía al este para realizar las reparaciones previstas en ^Sebastopol . Más tarde ese mismo día, el Ministerio de Defensa ruso declaró que el Moskva se había hundido . ^{El 15}^de^abril , Reuters informó que Rusia lanzó un aparente ataque de represalia con misiles contra la fábrica de misiles Luch Design Bureau en Kiev, donde se fabricaron los misiles Neptune utilizados en el ataque al Moskva . ^[⁴²⁷^] El 5 de mayo, un funcionario estadounidense confirmó que Estados Unidos proporcionó "una variedad de información de inteligencia" para ayudar en el hundimiento. ^[⁴²⁸^]

El 1 de junio, el ministro de Asuntos Exteriores ruso, Serguéi Lavrov, afirmó que la política de Ucrania de minar sus propios puertos para impedir la agresión marítima rusa había contribuido a la crisis de exportación de alimentos, diciendo: «Si Kiev resuelve el problema del desminado de los puertos, la Armada rusa garantizará el paso sin obstáculos de los barcos con grano al mar Mediterráneo». ^{[ 429 ]} El 23 de julio, CNBC informó de un ataque con misiles rusos contra el puerto ucraniano de Odesa, rápidamente condenado por líderes mundiales en medio de un reciente acuerdo negociado por la ONU y Turquía para asegurar un corredor marítimo para las exportaciones de alimentos. ^{[ 430 ]}

El 26 de diciembre de 2023, la fuerza aérea de Ucrania atacó el buque de desembarco ruso Novocherkassk, atracado en Feodosia . Ucrania afirmó que fue destruido, una afirmación que analistas independientes confirmaron. Las autoridades rusas afirmaron que dos aeronaves atacantes fueron destruidas. ^{[ 431 ]}^{[ 432 ]}^{[ 433 ]} El 31 de enero de 2024, drones marítimos ucranianos atacaron la corbeta rusa de clase Tarantul Ivanovets en el Mar Negro, provocando su hundimiento. ^{[ 434 ]}^{[ 435 ]} El 14 de febrero, el mismo tipo de drones marítimos ucranianos atacaron y hundieron el buque de desembarco ruso Tsezar Kunikov . ^{[ 436 ]}^{[ 437 ]}

resistencia ucraniana

Los civiles ucranianos resistieron la invasión rusa ofreciéndose como voluntarios para unidades de defensa territorial, fabricando cócteles Molotov , donando alimentos, construyendo barreras como erizos checos ^{[ 438 ]} y ayudando a transportar refugiados. ^{[ 439 ]} En respuesta a un llamado de Ukravtodor , la agencia de transporte de Ucrania, los civiles desmantelaron o alteraron señales de tráfico, ^{[ 440 ]} construyeron barreras improvisadas y bloquearon carreteras. ^{[ 441 ]} Los informes en redes sociales mostraron protestas callejeras espontáneas contra las fuerzas rusas en asentamientos ocupados, que a menudo evolucionaron en altercados verbales y enfrentamientos físicos con las tropas rusas. ^{[ 442 ]}

La gente bloqueó físicamente los vehículos militares rusos, obligándolos en ocasiones a retroceder. ^{[ 442 ]}^{[ 443 ]} La respuesta de los soldados rusos a la resistencia civil desarmada varió desde la reticencia a enfrentarse a los manifestantes, ^{[ 442 ]} hasta disparar directamente contra la multitud. ^{[ 444 ]} Para facilitar los ataques ucranianos, los civiles informaron sobre las posiciones militares rusas a través de un chatbot de Telegram y Diia , una aplicación del gobierno ucraniano. En respuesta, las fuerzas rusas comenzaron a destruir equipos de redes de telefonía móvil, registraron casa por casa en busca de teléfonos inteligentes y computadoras y, en al menos un caso, mataron a un civil que tenía fotos de tanques rusos. ^{[ 445 ]}

Infraestructura energética

Durante toda la guerra, Rusia y Ucrania atacaron la infraestructura energética de la otra. Las instalaciones ucranianas de generación de energía y calefacción, así como los oleoductos y refinerías rusas, fueron atacadas. ^{[ 446 ]}^{[ 447 ]}

Como reacción al reconocimiento por parte de Rusia de los territorios ucranianos ocupados en Donetsk y Luhansk , Alemania suspendió su certificación del gasoducto Nord Stream 2 el 22 de febrero de 2022. ^{[ 448 ]} En septiembre de 2022, el gasoducto Nord Stream inactivo entre Rusia y Alemania fue saboteado , destruyendo tres de los cuatro gasoductos. A partir de agosto de 2025Ninguna de las partes ha reclamado ni admitido responsabilidad, y las investigaciones continúan. Un ciudadano ucraniano fue arrestado en agosto de 2025 bajo sospecha de estar involucrado. ^{[ 449 ]} Como parte de las sanciones económicas contra Rusia por su guerra, la Comisión Europea ha prohibido el uso de los gasoductos Nord Stream. ^{[ 450 ]}^{[ 451 ]}

Los oleoductos que transportaban gas natural y petróleo desde Rusia a Europa Central continuaron operando durante la guerra de manera reducida. Fueron atacados varias veces; en mayo de 2025, ambas partes se acusaron mutuamente de atacar la infraestructura de gas en el óblast de Kursk, en Rusia. En agosto de 2025, Ucrania atacó repetidamente estaciones de bombeo del oleoducto ruso Druzhba , interrumpiendo el suministro de petróleo a Hungría y Eslovaquia, ^{[ 447 ]}^{[ 452 ]} mientras que ese mismo mes un ataque ruso contra la infraestructura energética ucraniana dejó a más de 100 000 hogares sin electricidad. ^{[ 453 ]}

Para el 28 de agosto de 2025, la campaña de Ucrania para atacar la industria petrolera rusa había afectado a diez refinerías de petróleo y, según estimaciones de Reuters , había interrumpido la capacidad de refinación de Rusia en al menos un 17%, o 1,1 millones de barriles diarios. ^{[ 454 ]} El efecto fue una crisis de combustible en Crimea y en las regiones del sur y del extremo oriente, con aumentos repentinos de precios y estaciones de servicio sin combustible. ^{[ 455 ]} En septiembre de 2025, la Agencia Internacional de Energía declaró que los ingresos de Rusia por exportaciones de productos petrolíferos habían caído en agosto a mínimos de cinco años, lo que contribuyó a la desaceleración económica de Rusia. ^{[ 456 ]} Reconociendo la precaria situación del sistema energético ruso , el presidente Vladimir Putin señaló las reservas de carbón de Rusia para compensar su escasez de gas, la infraestructura insuficiente y la economía de red subdesarrollada. ^{[ 457 ]}

Tras su ataque del 14 de septiembre de 2025 contra la refinería Kinef , la segunda más grande de Rusia , el Estado Mayor de las Fuerzas Armadas de Ucrania afirmó estar "trabajando 'sistemáticamente' para debilitar las capacidades militares y económicas de Rusia, con especial atención a la producción de combustible, armas y municiones". ^{[ 458 ]}

participación extranjera

Apoyo a Ucrania

Muchos países han proporcionado ayuda militar a Ucrania, incluyendo armamento, equipo, entrenamiento y apoyo logístico. Varios impusieron sanciones limitadas a Rusia en el preludio de la invasión y aplicaron nuevas sanciones cuando comenzó la invasión, con la intención de paralizar la economía rusa; ^{[ 459 ]}^{[ 460 ]} las sanciones se dirigieron a individuos, bancos, empresas, casas de cambio, exportaciones e importaciones. ^{[ 459 ]}

La asistencia militar se ha coordinado principalmente a través del Grupo de Contacto de Defensa de Ucrania , cuyos más de cincuenta países incluyen a los 32 estados miembros de la OTAN . ^{[ 461 ]} De enero de 2022 a enero de 2024, el Instituto Kiel rastreó 380 mil millones de dólares en ayuda a Ucrania . ^{[ 462 ]} Los países europeos han proporcionado la mayor cantidad de ayuda en total (militar, financiera y humanitaria). ^{[ 463 ]} Estonia y Dinamarca han proporcionado la mayor cantidad de ayuda militar como porcentaje del PIB. ^{[ 464 ]} La Unión Europea coordinó el suministro de ayuda militar por primera vez. ^{[ 465 ]} Estados Unidos ha proporcionado la mayor cantidad de asistencia militar a Ucrania, ^{[ 463 ]} y ha reservado 175 mil millones de dólares para ayudar al país. ^{[ 464 ]} La mayor parte de la ayuda militar estadounidense ha sido armamento y equipo estadounidense antiguo de reservas , mientras que la mayor parte de los fondos estadounidenses destinados a Ucrania permanecen en la economía estadounidense y apoyan a las industrias estadounidenses, subsidiando la fabricación de armas y equipo militar. ^{[ 464 ]}^{[ 466 ]} Bulgaria suministró a Ucrania más de un tercio de la munición necesaria en la fase inicial de la invasión y una pluralidad del combustible necesario. ^{[ 467 ]} La mayoría de los partidarios de Ucrania descartaron el envío de tropas al país en los primeros meses de la invasión. ^{[ 468 ]} Aunque India ha mantenido una postura neutral sobre la invasión, ^{[ 469 ]} los informes indican que los proyectiles de artillería fabricados por fabricantes indios se vendieron a países europeos y luego se desviaron a Ucrania. Los funcionarios indios no han intervenido a pesar de las objeciones de Rusia. ^{[ 470 ]}

El gobierno ruso ha amenazado con represalias contra los países que suministran ayuda militar a Ucrania. ^{[ 471 ]} Según Peter Dickinson del Atlantic Council , el gobierno ruso no ha cumplido sus amenazas, a pesar de que se han traspasado la mayoría de sus " líneas rojas ". ^{[ 472 ]}

Desde el inicio de la invasión rusa, Estados Unidos ha estado compartiendo inteligencia con Ucrania, centrándose en inteligencia de señales terminada para ayudar en la selección de objetivos. ^{[ 473 ]}^{[ 474 ]} En marzo de 2025, Estados Unidos suspendió el intercambio de inteligencia con Ucrania, ^{[ 475 ]} para reanudarlo unos días después. ^{[ 476 ]}^{[ 477 ]} En octubre de 2025, el Wall Street Journal y Reuters informaron que Estados Unidos proporcionaría inteligencia para permitir ataques de largo alcance contra la infraestructura energética rusa en lo profundo del territorio ruso. ^{[ 478 ]}^{[ 479 ]}^{[ 480 ]} En noviembre de 2025, Reuters informó que Estados Unidos amenazó con cortar el intercambio de inteligencia para presionar a Ucrania a negociar un acuerdo de paz. ^{[ 481 ]}

Para enero de 2026, según el presidente francés Macron, la coalición de los dispuestos proporcionaba todo el apoyo militar internacional a Ucrania, y Francia aportaba dos tercios de la inteligencia militar. ^{[ 482 ]}^{[ 483 ]} En abril de 2026, surgieron informes de que los pilotos ucranianos de F-16 habían pasado por un programa dirigido por la RAF y estaban siendo instruidos para operar en entornos sin GPS debido a la extensa guerra electrónica rusa. ^{[ 484 ]}^{[ 485 ]} En junio de 2026, con un préstamo de 90 mil millones de euros de la UE para aumentar la defensa ucraniana, el presidente Zelenskyy dijo que su gobierno aumentaría los salarios militares y reclutaría soldados extranjeros para contrarrestar la escasez de personal. ^{[ 486 ]}

Apoyo a Rusia

Bielorrusia

Bielorrusia ha permitido a Rusia usar su territorio para llevar a cabo parte de la invasión y lanzar misiles contra Ucrania. ^{[ 487 ]} El espacio aéreo bielorruso fue utilizado por Rusia, incluso para misiones de alerta temprana y control por radar , hasta 2023, cuando un avión de vigilancia ruso Beriev A-50 fue dañado por drones . ^{[ 488 ]} Bielorrusia es considerada un cobeligerante . ^{[ 489 ]}^{[ 490 ]}^{[ 491 ]} El politólogo Matthew Frear considera a Bielorrusia un cocombatiente, con " Lukashenko declarando repetidamente su apoyo a las acciones militares de Putin", ^{[ 492 ]} mientras que la edición de 2023 de Armed Conflict Survey la clasificó como no un cocombatiente directo. ^{[ 493 ]} Bielorrusia proporcionó a Rusia armas y municiones, y posteriormente, según la edición de 2024 de Armed Conflict Survey , Rusia desplegó armas nucleares tácticas en Bielorrusia. ^{[ 494 ]}

Irán

En junio de 2023, la inteligencia militar estadounidense sugirió que Irán estaba proporcionando tanto drones de combate Shahed como materiales de producción para desarrollar una fábrica de drones para Rusia. ^{[ 495 ]} En febrero de 2024, un informe de Reuters indicó que Irán envió misiles balísticos al ejército ruso. ^{[ 496 ]} Según Estados Unidos y Ucrania, tropas iraníes han sido estacionadas en Crimea para ayudar a Rusia a lanzar ataques con drones contra civiles e infraestructura civil. ^{[ 497 ]}^{[ 498 ]} Irán ha negado haber enviado armas a Rusia para su uso contra Ucrania. ^{[ 399 ]}

Corea del Norte

Corea del Norte ha suministrado a Rusia misiles balísticos y lanzadores. ^{[ 499 ]}^{[ 500 ]} En octubre de 2024, Ucrania y Corea del Sur afirmaron que ingenieros norcoreanos habían sido desplegados en el campo de batalla para ayudar con el lanzamiento de estos misiles y sufrieron bajas. ^{[ 501 ]}^{[ 502 ]}^{[ 503 ]} En octubre de 2024, Zelensky anunció que la inteligencia ucraniana creía que había 10 000 soldados norcoreanos preparándose para unirse a las fuerzas rusas. ^{[ 504 ]} El gobierno norcoreano declaró que ninguno de sus soldados estaba luchando por Rusia. ^{[ 505 ]}^{[ 506 ]}^{[ 507 ]}

Funcionarios estadounidenses informaron que Corea del Norte había enviado 3000 soldados a Rusia para un posible despliegue en Ucrania, quienes habían sido transportados por barco en octubre y estaban entrenando en tres bases militares en el este de Rusia. ^{[ 508 ]} El 28 de octubre, el jefe de la OTAN, Mark Rutte, confirmó previamente a la inteligencia ucraniana que tropas norcoreanas habían sido desplegadas en el óblast de Kursk para apoyar a Rusia contra la ofensiva de Kursk , y el Pentágono informó que se habían enviado alrededor de 10 000 soldados norcoreanos en total. ^{[ 509 ]}^{[ 510 ]}^{[ 511 ]}

El 7 de noviembre, el ministro de defensa de Ucrania informó que las tropas norcoreanas habían participado en combates el 5 de noviembre en el óblast de Kursk, ^{[ 512 ]} un informe que fue confirmado por funcionarios estadounidenses y surcoreanos. ^{[ 513 ]}^{[ 514 ]}^{[ 515 ]}^{[ 516 ]} El 24 de noviembre, el jefe del Estado Mayor general de Ucrania confirmó que las tropas norcoreanas habían participado en combates. ^{[ 517 ]} El 2 de diciembre, el Pentágono señaló que soldados norcoreanos se habían integrado en unidades rusas, ^{[ 518 ]} informes que fueron secundados por la Dirección de Inteligencia de Ucrania. ^{[ 519 ]} El 16 de diciembre, Estados Unidos confirmó que soldados norcoreanos habían muerto en combate en el óblast de Kursk de Rusia. ^{[ 520 ]} Para el 18 de diciembre, el número de soldados norcoreanos muertos y heridos había llegado a un par de cientos, ^{[ 521 ]} mientras que Corea del Sur informó de 100 norcoreanos muertos y 1000 heridos. ^{[ 522 ]} Los oficiales del JAG del Ejército de los EE. UU. , Steve Szymanski y Joshua Keruski, declararon que Corea del Norte se había convertido en parte de un conflicto armado internacional con Ucrania a partir del enfrentamiento del 5 de noviembre. ^{[ 523 ]}

Zelenskyy mostró imágenes que, según él, mostraban a tropas rusas quemando los rostros de soldados norcoreanos muertos para ocultar su presencia en el campo de batalla. ^{[ 524 ]}^{[ 525 ]}^{[ 526 ]}^{[ 527 ]}

En enero de 2025, dos militares norcoreanos fueron hechos prisioneros mientras combatían en el óblast de Kursk. Los informes de inteligencia indican que a los soldados norcoreanos se les entregaron documentos militares falsos que los identificaban como rusos de Tuvá . ^{[ 528 ]} En marzo de 2025, el Estado Mayor Conjunto de Corea del Sur declaró que Corea del Norte había enviado 3000 soldados adicionales a principios de año, junto con equipo militar, incluidos misiles balísticos de corto alcance. Según Corea del Sur, aproximadamente 11 000 soldados norcoreanos habían sido enviados a Rusia, de los cuales 4000 resultaron muertos o heridos. ^{[ 529 ]} Ese mismo mes, Rusia reconoció por primera vez la presencia de soldados norcoreanos combatiendo en Kursk. ^{[ 530 ]}

En junio de 2025, el exministro de Defensa ruso Serguéi Shoigú anunció que 1000 militares norcoreanos serían desplegados en Kursk para el desminado y otros 5000 para la reconstrucción. ^{[ 531 ]} La BBC informó que, en 2024, más de 10 000 trabajadores norcoreanos fueron enviados a trabajar en "condiciones de esclavitud" en la construcción rusa y otros sectores, "en violación de las sanciones de la ONU que prohíben el uso de mano de obra norcoreana". Un funcionario de inteligencia surcoreano declaró a la BBC que se desplegarían hasta 50 000 trabajadores en 2025. ^{[ 532 ]}

Otros y evasión de sanciones

Politico informó en marzo de 2023 que el fabricante de armas estatal chino Norinco envió rifles de asalto, piezas de drones y chalecos antibalas a Rusia entre junio y diciembre de 2022, con algunos envíos a través de terceros países, incluidos Turquía y los Emiratos Árabes Unidos .^{[ 534 ]} Según EE. UU., se ha utilizado munición china en campos de batalla en Ucrania.^{[ 535 ]} En mayo de 2023, la Unión Europea identificó que empresas chinas y de los Emiratos Árabes Unidos estaban suministrando componentes de armas a Rusia.^{[ 536 ]} En abril de 2024, se informó que China había proporcionado a Rusia inteligencia geoespacial , máquinas herramienta para tanques y propelentes para misiles.^{[ 537 ]} En septiembre de 2024, Reuters informó documentos que indicaban que Rusia había establecido un programa de armas en China para desarrollar y producir drones de ataque de largo alcance, con la asistencia de especialistas locales, para su uso en la invasión.^{[ 538 ]} En julio de 2025, la Dirección Principal de Inteligencia de Ucraniainformó que Laos había enviado un equipo de desminado de 50 personas a Kursk, aunque Laos negó la afirmación.^{[ 539 ]}

Rusia importa electrónica sensible, maquinaria, autopartes y equipo de defensa de la India. ^{[ 540 ]} El comercio, como las ventas de petróleo, ha aumentado desde 2022, impulsando los ingresos de las empresas estatales rusas. Para eludir las sanciones y gestionar su superávit cambiario, Rusia paga en rupias, apoyando así las necesidades civiles y militares. ^{[ 541 ]}^{[ 542 ]} Reuters informó en julio de 2025 que, según datos de aduanas indias, una empresa india envió compuestos explosivos de uso militar valorados en 1,4 millones de dólares a Rusia en diciembre de 2024. ^{[ 543 ]}

Rusia ha seguido obteniendo miles de millones de dólares de las exportaciones de combustibles fósiles a Occidente. Los aliados occidentales de Ucrania han pagado a Rusia más por sus hidrocarburos de lo que le han dado a Ucrania en ayuda. En 2025, Eslovaquia y Hungría rechazaron un plan de la UE para eliminar gradualmente los suministros de gas ruso a través de Turquía para 2028. Las refinerías clandestinas en Turquía e India procesan crudo ruso y venden el combustible refinado a los países que imponen sanciones. ^[⁵⁴⁴^]^[⁵⁴⁵^]^[⁵⁴⁶^] Rusia también ha desarrollado alianzas con India y los Emiratos Árabes Unidos que apoyan activamente sus esfuerzos para evadir las sanciones. ^[⁵⁴⁷^]^[⁵⁴⁸^]^[⁵⁴⁹^]

En 2022, aproximadamente 400.000 semiconductores fabricados en EE. UU., por un valor de 53,6 millones de dólares, se enviaron a Rusia a través de las Maldivas , lo que representó casi el 20 % de las exportaciones de las Maldivas. Las Maldivas no tienen fabricantes de semiconductores propios; todas sus exportaciones son realizadas por empresas fantasma rusas, la mayoría con sede en Hong Kong. ^{[ 550 ]}^{[ 551 ]} De 2015 a 2021, el comercio anual promedio entre Rusia y Turquía en 45 materiales vinculados al ámbito militar fue de 28 millones de dólares; de enero a octubre de 2023, fue de 158 millones de dólares. ^{[ 552 ]}

Desde enero de 2022 hasta mediados de 2025, Estados Unidos importó 24.510 millones de dólares en productos rusos, principalmente fertilizantes, uranio y plutonio enriquecidos y paladio . ^[⁵⁵³^]

Damnificados

Se ha dicho que fuentes rusas y ucranianas inflan las cifras de bajas de sus oponentes y minimizan sus propias pérdidas para mantener la moral. ^{[ 554 ]} Documentos estadounidenses filtrados dicen que "la subnotificación de bajas dentro del sistema [ruso] pone de manifiesto la 'continua reticencia' del ejército a transmitir malas noticias a la cadena de mando". ^{[ 555 ]} Los medios de comunicación rusos han dejado de informar en gran medida sobre el número de muertos rusos. ^{[ 556 ]} Rusia y Ucrania han admitido haber sufrido pérdidas "significativas" ^{[ 557 ]} y "considerables", respectivamente. ^{[ 558 ]}^{[ 559 ]}

Ha sido imposible determinar con precisión el número de muertes civiles y militares. ^{[ 560 ]} La Agence France-Presse (AFP) informó que ni ella ni los observadores independientes del conflicto pudieron verificar las afirmaciones rusas y ucranianas sobre las bajas enemigas y sospecharon que estaban infladas. ^{[ 561 ]} En octubre de 2022, el proyecto de medios rusos independientes iStories , citando fuentes cercanas al Kremlin, informó que más de 90.000 soldados rusos habían muerto, resultado gravemente heridos o desaparecido. ^{[ 562 ]} El presidente ucraniano Volodymyr Zelensky declaró en febrero de 2026 que aproximadamente 55.000 soldados ucranianos habían muerto en el campo de batalla, señalando que un número significativo también figuraba oficialmente como desaparecido en combate. ^{[ 563 ]}^{[ 564 ]}^{[ 565 ]}

Si bien las muertes en combate pueden inferirse de diversas fuentes, incluidas las imágenes satelitales de la acción militar, medir las muertes de civiles es más difícil. En junio de 2022, el Ministro de Defensa de Ucrania dijo a CNN que decenas de miles de ucranianos habían muerto y que esperaba que el número de muertos fuera inferior a 100 000. ^{[ 566 ]} Para julio de 2024, unos 20 000 ucranianos habían perdido extremidades. ^{[ 567 ]} En Mariúpol, los funcionarios ucranianos creen que al menos 25 000 han muerto, ^{[ 568 ]}^{[ 569 ]} y todavía se estaban descubriendo cuerpos en septiembre de 2022. ^{[ 570 ]} El alcalde dijo que más de 10 000 y posiblemente hasta 20 000 civiles murieron en el asedio de Mariúpol y que las fuerzas rusas habían traído equipo móvil de cremación cuando entraron en la ciudad. ^{[ 571 ]}^{[ 572 ]}^{[ 573 ]} Una investigación de AP de finales de 2022 estimó hasta 75.000 civiles muertos solo en la zona de Mariúpol. ^{[ 574 ]}^{[ 575 ]} AFP dice que "una laguna clave en el recuento de víctimas es la falta de información de lugares ocupados por Rusia como la ciudad portuaria de Mariúpol, donde se cree que murieron decenas de miles de civiles". ^{[ 576 ]} Hubo al menos 8.000 muertes adicionales en Mariúpol entre marzo de 2022 y febrero de 2023. ^{[ 577 ]} La Oficina del Alto Comisionado de las Naciones Unidas para los Derechos Humanos (ACNUDH) creía que las cifras reales de víctimas civiles eran significativamente más altas de lo que ha podido confirmar. ^{[ 578 ]}

En el ejército ruso, las minorías étnicas han sufrido bajas desproporcionadamente altas. En octubre de 2022, las regiones rusas con los números de muertos más altos fueron Daguestán , Tuvá y Buriatia , todas regiones de minorías. En febrero de 2024, seis de las diez regiones rusas con las tasas de mortalidad más altas en Ucrania se ubicaban en Siberia y el extremo oriente, y las continuas tasas de bajas desproporcionadamente altas de las minorías étnicas llevaron a los analistas a advertir que la situación conducirá a impactos destructivos a largo plazo en estas comunidades. ^{[ 579 ]}^{[ 580 ]}^{[ 581 ]}^{[ 582 ]}^{[ 583 ]} Alrededor de 1200 soldados rusos murieron o resultaron heridos en Ucrania cada día en mayo-junio de 2024, ^{[ 584 ]} que ascendió a 1500 en noviembre de 2024, cuando se estimaron 45 690 bajas. ^{[ 585 ]} Newsweek estimó que en el día más sangriento de noviembre de 2024, la proporción de hombres rusos muertos (1950) superó la tasa promedio diaria de natalidad masculina en Rusia (1836). ^{[ 586 ]} El medio de comunicación Meduza, con sede en Letonia , estimó que hasta 140 000 soldados rusos habían muerto para julio de 2024. ^{[ 587 ]} En diciembre de 2025, un análisis de la BBC sugirió que las bajas rusas estaban creciendo a un ritmo más rápido que en cualquier momento anterior de la invasión, con un 40 % más de obituarios de soldados publicados en Rusia en 2025 en comparación con 2024. ^{[ 588 ]}^{[ 589 ]} La guerra en Ucrania y la emigración asociada, las tasas de natalidad más bajas y las bajas relacionadas con la guerra profundizaron aún más la crisis demográfica de Rusia . ^{[ 590 ]}

La invasión rusa se convirtió en la guerra europea más mortífera desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial (1939-1945). ^{[ 591 ]} En febrero de 2025, el Instituto Quincy para la Gobernanza Responsable estimó 250 000 muertos. ^{[ 592 ]} En septiembre de 2024, The Wall Street Journal informó que ya había un millón de ucranianos y rusos muertos o heridos. ^{[ 593 ]}

Crímenes de guerra y ataques contra civiles

Las fuerzas armadas y las autoridades rusas han sido responsables de ataques deliberados contra objetivos civiles ^{[ 620 ]} (incluidos ataques a hospitales y a la red eléctrica ), masacres de civiles, secuestro y tortura de civiles, violencia sexual , ^{[ 621 ]} deportación forzosa de civiles y tortura y asesinato de prisioneros de guerra ucranianos. También han llevado a cabo ataques indiscriminados en zonas densamente pobladas, incluso con bombas de racimo , en un caso matando a 61 personas en el ataque a la estación de tren de Kramatorsk . ^{[ 622 ]}^{[ 623 ]}^{[ 624 ]}^{[ 625 ]} Según Kyrylo Budanov , jefe de la inteligencia ucraniana, Rusia, antes del inicio de la invasión, había creado «listas de ejecución» de profesores, periodistas, científicos, escritores, sacerdotes y políticos ucranianos y se estaba preparando para un genocidio de ucranianos; los planes incluían la ubicación de fosas comunes y crematorios móviles . ^{[ 626 ]}

According to the United Nations' Human Rights Office (OHCHR), by December 2023, about 78% of confirmed civilian casualties had been killed in Ukrainian-held territory.^[628] Over 12,300 civilians have been killed since the invasion began.^[629] Russia has deliberately and repeatedly attacked Ukrainian civilians with FPV drones, including first responders,^[630] such as in the Kherson terror campaign dubbed the "human safari."^[631]^[632]^[633] In October 2025, the UN concluded that the Russian military was systematically attacking Ukrainian civilians and civilian targets with drones along a 300-kilometre stretch of the Dnipro River to drive Ukrainians out of the region. The report said that these are war crimes and crimes against humanity.^[634]

The UN Human Rights Office reports that Russia is committing severe human rights violations in occupied Ukraine, including arbitrary detentions; enforced disappearances; torture; crackdown on protests and freedom of speech; enforced Russification; indoctrination of children, and suppression of Ukrainian language and culture.^[635]^[636] The UN also found that Russian authorities were systematically deporting Ukrainian civilians from occupied provinces, which is a crime against humanity.^[634] Ukrainians have been coerced into taking Russian passports and becoming Russian citizens. Those who refuse are denied healthcare and other rights,^[636] and can be imprisoned as a "foreign citizen." Ukrainian men who take Russian citizenship are drafted to fight against Ukraine.^[637]

Russian forces have reportedly used banned chemical weapons, usually tear gas grenades.^[638]^[639] In April 2024, a Daily Telegraph investigation concluded that "Russian troops are carrying out a systematic campaign of illegal chemical attacks against Ukrainian soldiers".^[640]

In January 2026, the UN reported that 2025 had been the deadliest year for Ukrainian civilians since 2022, with 2,514 deaths and 12,142 injuries being verified during the year, a 31% increase compared to 2024. The report said that a "massive increase" of Russian long-range weapons was causing increased harm in urban centres.^[641]^[642]

Prisoners of war

An August 2022 report by the Humanitarian Research Lab of the Yale School of Public Health identified 21 filtration camps for Ukrainian "civilians, POWs [prisoners of war], and other personnel" in the vicinity of the Donetsk oblast. Imaging of one camp, Olenivka prison, found two sites of disturbed earth consistent with "potential graves."^[643] Kaveh Khoshnood, a professor at the Yale School of Public Health, said: "Incommunicado detention of civilians is more than a violation of international humanitarian law—it represents a threat to the public health of those currently in the custody of Russia and its proxies." Conditions described by freed prisoners include exposure, insufficient access to sanitation, food, and water; cramped conditions; electrical shocks; and assault..^[643]

An OHCHR report released in November 2022 documented abuses on both sides, based on interviews with prisoners.^[644] In March 2023, UN human rights commissioner Volker Türk reported that more than 90% of the Ukrainian POWs interviewed by his office said they had been tortured or ill-treated in penitentiary facilities, which Russia, despite several requests, did not give UN staff access to.^[645]

In April 2023, several videos circulated on different websites purportedly showing Russian soldiers beheading Ukrainian soldiers.^[646]

In March 2024, the UN issued a report saying Russia may have executed more than 30 recently captured Ukrainian POWs over the winter. The UN Human Rights Office verified three incidents in which Russian servicemen executed seven Ukrainian servicemen. According to the same report, 39 of 60 released Ukrainian POWs said that they had been subjected to sexual violence during their internment.^[647]

In October 2024, the EEAS described an increasing frequency of Russian executions of Ukrainian prisoners, with at least 177 prisoners dying in Russian captivity since the beginning of the war. The statement included the OHCHR's confirmation of systematic use of different methods of torture used by Russians against Ukrainian prisoners.^[648]

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have been accused of executions and abuses of Russian POWs, but the number of allegations has been significantly lower.^[649]^{:para. 105}^[650]^[651]^[652]

Abduction of Ukrainian children

In June 2024, an investigation by the Financial Times identified four Ukrainian children on a Russian government-linked adoption website who had been abducted from state care homes. The children's Ukrainian background was not mentioned. One child was shown with a new Russian name and an age that differed from their Ukrainian documents, while another was shown using a Russian version of their Ukrainian name. 17 other matches identified by the Financial Times on the adoption website were confirmed as Ukrainian children in a New York Times investigation. Ukrainian authorities estimate that nearly 20,000 Ukrainian children have been forcibly taken from occupied territories to Russia since the full-scale invasion began. Wayne Jordash, president of humanitarian law firm Global Rights Compliance, described forcibly transferring or deporting children as war crimes, adding that when done as part of a widespread or systematic attack on a civilian population, Russia is also committing crimes against humanity.^[653]^[654]

A March 2025 report published by the ISW suggests that the mass transfer of Ukrainian children to Russia had been an established component of Russia's war plans prior to the invasion. It references Russian governmental documents that predate the invasion, which outlined plans to move Ukrainian orphans in occupied Ukraine to Russia, described as 'humanitarian evacuations.' Since the invasion, tens to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian children have been deported to Russia, where they have been housed in camps, placed with adoptive families, and provided with new Russian identities, including new names, falsified birth certificates, and other state documentation. The report claims that Russia intends to convert the abductees into 'the next generation of Russians' while 'depriving [Ukraine] of its multi-generation potential.' Referencing Article 2 of the Genocide Convention, the author notes that 'international law explicitly forbids the forcible transfer of children from one group to another group for the purpose of destroying, in whole or in part, a national or ethnic group and considers these violations as constituent acts of genocide.'^[655]

In August 2025, Mykola Kuleba, the head of a Ukrainian NGO, said that Russian occupation authorities in Ukraine had created an online "catalog" of Ukrainian children up for adoption sorted by physical traits, denouncing the practice as child trafficking.^[656]^[657]^[658]^[659]

International arrest warrants

The International Criminal Court (ICC) opened an investigation into possible crimes against humanity, genocide, and war crimes committed in Ukraine.^[660] On 17 March 2023, the ICC issued a warrant for Putin's arrest, charging him with individual criminal responsibility in the abduction of children forcibly deported to Russia.^[661] It was the first time that the ICC had issued an arrest warrant for the head of state of a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council^[661] (the world's five principal nuclear powers).^[662] Moscow has denied any involvement in war crimes, a response Vittorio Bufacchi of University College Cork says "has bordered on the farcical",^[663] and its contention that the images coming out of Bucha were fabricated is "a disingenuous response born by delusional hubris, post-truth on overdrive, (that) does not merit being taken seriously." Even the usually fractured United States Senate came together to call Putin a war criminal.^[664]

One of several efforts to document Russian war crimes concerns its repeated bombardment of markets and bread lines, destruction of basic infrastructure, and attacks on exports and supply convoys in a country where deliberate starvation of Ukrainians by Soviets still looms large in public memory.^[665] Forcible deportation of populations, such as took place in Mariupol, is another area of focus.^[666]

In March 2024, the ICC issued arrest warrants for military officials Sergey Kobylash, Viktor Sokolov, Sergei Shoigu, and Valery Gerasimov.^[667]^[668] In May 2026, a special tribunal was formalized by 36 countries to prosecute Putin for the crime of aggression against Ukraine.^[669]

Impacts

Humanitarian impact

The invasion contributed to the 2022 food crises.^[670] As of February 2025, 3.7 million Ukrainians were internally displaced and 6.9 million were refugees.^[671]

Russian attacks on civilians, causing mass civilian casualties and displacement, have been characterised as genocide and democide.^[24]^[25]^[26]^[27] In September 2023, a UN-mandated investigative body reported that Russian occupiers had tortured Ukrainians to death and forced families to listen as they raped women.^[672] The commission previously found that violations committed by Russian forces in Ukraine may constitute crimes against humanity.^[673]

By August 2024, the WHO had recorded 1,940 attacks against Ukrainian healthcare and reported widespread double-tap attacks.^[674] In 2023, Physicians for Human Rights described Russian attacks on Ukraine's healthcare system as having a "reasonable basis" to be considered war crimes, and potentially constitute crimes against humanity.^[675]

Cultural heritage

As of August 2025, UNESCO has verified damage to 508 Ukrainian cultural sites, including 151 religious sites, 34 museums, 33 monuments, and 18 libraries.^[676] In 2022, the European Parliament labelled Russia's destruction of Ukrainian cultural property a war crime.^[677] Ukraine's Minister of Culture Oleksandr Tkachenko called it cultural genocide.^[678]

A documentary film produced during the siege of Mariupol, 20 Days in Mariupol, won the Oscar for best documentary in 2024.^[679]

Refugee crisis

The war has caused the largest refugee and humanitarian crisis in Europe since World War II.^[680] In the first week of the invasion, the UN reported over a million refugees had fled Ukraine; this reached over eight million by February 2023.^[681]^[682] In May 2022, following an influx of military equipment into Ukraine, a significant number of refugees sought to return to regions relatively isolated from the front in southeastern Ukraine.^[683] By 3 May, another 8 million people were displaced inside Ukraine.^[684]

Most refugees were women, children, elderly, or disabled.^[685] Most male Ukrainian nationals aged 18 to 60 were denied exit from Ukraine as part of mandatory conscription,^[686] unless they were responsible for the financial support of three or more children, were single fathers, or were the parent/guardian of children with disabilities.^[687] Many Ukrainian men, including teenagers, opted to remain in Ukraine voluntarily to join the resistance.^[688]

According to the UN High Commission for Refugees as of May 2022, there were 3,315,711 refugees in Poland, 901,696 in Romania, 594,664 in Hungary, 461,742 in Moldova, 415,402 in Slovakia, and 27,308 in Belarus, while Russia reported it had received over 800,104 refugees.^[681] By July 2022, over 390,000 Ukrainian refugees had arrived in the Czech Republic.^[689] Turkey registered more than 58,000 Ukrainian refugees as of March 2022.^[690] The EU invoked the Temporary Protection Directive for the first time, granting Ukrainian refugees the right to live and work in the EU for up to three years.^[691] Britain has accepted 146,379 refugees, as well as extending the ability to remain in the UK for three years.^[692] Flight from war affected especially the southern and eastern regions and especially educated women of childbearing age and their children. With an estimate of more than 20% of refugees not returning, study author Maryna Tverdostup concluded that long-term shrinking will significantly impair reconstruction.^[693]

According to the OSCE, Russia has engaged in "massive deportation" of over 1.3 million Ukrainian civilians, potentially constituting crimes against humanity.^[694] The OSCE and Ukraine have accused Russia of forcibly moving civilians to filtration camps in Russian-held territory and then into Russia. Ukrainian sources have compared this policy to Soviet-era population transfers and Russian actions in the Chechen War of Independence.^[695] For instance, as of April 2022, Russia claimed to have evacuated about 121,000 Mariupol residents to Russia.^[695]^[696]RIA Novosti and Ukrainian officials said that thousands were dispatched to centres in cities in Russia and Russian-occupied Ukraine,^[697] from which people were sent to economically depressed regions of Russia.^[698]^[699]^[l]

Environmental impact

Based on a preliminary assessment, the war has inflicted $51 billion in environmental damage in Ukraine; according to a report by the Yale School of the Environment, 623,000 tonnes (1.4 billion pounds) of petrochemicals have burnt as a result of shelling, while nearly 1,500 tonnes (3.2 million pounds) of pollutants have leaked into bodies of water. Hazardous chemicals have contaminated around 28 hectares (70 acres) of soil and likely made agricultural activities temporarily impossible.^[701] Around 30% of Ukraine's land is littered with explosives, and more than 2.4 million hectares (5.9 million acres) of forest have been damaged.^[702]

According to peace organisation PAX, Russia's "deliberate targeting of industrial and energy infrastructure" has caused "severe" pollution, and explosive weapons have left "millions of tonnes" of contaminated debris in cities and towns.^[703] In June 2023, the Kakhovka Dam, under Russian occupation, was damaged, causing flooding and triggering warnings of an "ecological disaster."^[704]

The Ukrainian government, international observers, and journalists have described the damage as ecocide.^[705] The Ukrainian government is investigating more crimes against the environment and ecocide (a crime in Ukraine).^[706] Zelenskyy has met with prominent European figures (Heidi Hautala, Margot Wallstrom, Mary Robinson, and Greta Thunberg) to discuss the environmental damage and how to prosecute it.^[707]

According to an investigation by NGL Media published in April 2024, Russia has completely destroyed over 60,000 hectares (150,000 acres) of Ukrainian forests. The investigation stated that long-term ecological consequences may include lowering of the groundwater level, reduction of biodiversity, worsening of air quality, fire outbreaks, and rivers and ponds drying up.^[708]

The war in Ukraine has severely disrupted global climate policy and increased CO₂ emissions.^[709]^[710] The effects have been strongly felt in Asia,^[711]^[712]^[713] Europe,^[714] and the US.^[715]

Nuclear risk

The invasion had an impact on Ukraine's nuclear power plants. Russian forces captured Chernobyl on the first day, leading to a huge spike in radiation levels.^[716] Russia also captured the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest in Europe, which has since been at risk and damaged by shelling. In August 2022, Zelenskyy described the situation as "Russian nuclear terror."^[717] The International Atomic Energy Agency said it was the first time a military conflict occurred amid nuclear plants, and it called for a demilitarised zone around Zaporizhzhia NPP.^[718]

Economic impact

Ukraine

Ukrainian Minister of Economic Development and Trade Yulia Svyrydenko announced that for 2022 Ukraine had a 30% loss in its gross domestic product (GDP).^[720] The International Monetary Fund predicted that Ukraine's GDP would decrease between 10% and 35%;^[721] the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development predicted a 20% decrease.^[722] The Ukrainian statistics service said that the GDP of Ukraine in 2023 grew by 5.3%.^[723] By 2026 the total cost of rebuilding Ukraine was estimated by the World Bank at US$588 billion.^[724]^[725]

Ukraine began issuing war bonds on 1 March 2022, and the following day the Ukrainian government announced that they had raised 6.14 billion hryvnias.^[726] In May 2022 the European Commission banned grain sales in Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, except if they were transiting through those countries; the ban was lifted in September 2023.^[727]

The war has caused a major humanitarian crisis in Ukraine: the United Nations Development Programme calculated in March 2022 that a prolonged conflict would cause 30% of the Ukrainian population to fall below the poverty line, while a further 62% would be at risk of falling into poverty within a year.^[728]

Ukraine is home to substantial mineral, fossil-fuel, and agricultural resources, the capture of which analysts believe was a potential motivation for the launching of the war by Russia.^[729]^[730] Joint exploitation of Ukrainian mineral resources was subsequently the subject of the Ukraine–United States Mineral Resources Agreement.^[731]

Russia

The US government estimated that Russia's economic losses from the war and Western sanctions would be around $1.3 trillion by 2025, and Russia's direct financial spending on the invasion is estimated at $250 billion (as of late 2024)—costs that Russia could not have foreseen.^[732] Other estimates put the direct cost of the war to Russia at over US$450 billion.^[732]^[733]^[734] The international sanctions led Russia to become heavily economically and technologically dependent on China.^[735]^[736]

The Russian Ministry of Economic Development said that for 2022 the GDP contracted by 2.1%^[737] and for 2023 Russia's government said the GDP grew by 3.6%.^[738] In April 2024, it was reported that Russia was planning tax increases to help finance the war.^[739] In January 2025, it was reported that, since early 2022, Russia had used a two-prong strategy to finance the war. In addition to the official Russian government defence budget—direct financial expenditure for the war was estimated at US$250 billion through June 2024 for military spending through normal channels,^[732] with the military budget rising to over 20% of annual GDP—an additional off-budget financing mechanism was employed with over US$200 billion of debt funding obtained from preferential bank loans to defence contractors and war-related businesses, compelled by the Russian government.^[733]^[734]

A report in April 2025 by the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics noted that official Russian statistics are unreliable.^[740] The report argued that Russian fiscal stimulus has kept the economy afloat so far but that it is on an unsustainable trajectory.^[740]^[741] In August 2025, VEB, one of the largest Russian state banks, assessed that the Russian economy had started slipping into recession.^[742] In April 2026, Putin said Russia's GDP shrank by a combined 1.8% in January and February; according to Fortune, Russian officials warned Putin earlier in the year about a possible financial crisis due to "spiraling" inflation.^[743]

A price cap was placed on Russian oil by the G7 in December 2022.^[744] The US banned all imports of Russian oil in March 2022.^[745] The EU placed an embargo on oil products from Russia in February 2023.^[744] Other countries that embargoed Russian oil included Five Eyes partners Canada, the United Kingdom, Australia, and New Zealand.^[746]

Peace efforts

Peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine took place on 28 February, 3 March, and 7 March 2022 in Belarus. Further talks were held on 10 March and 14 March in Turkey.^[747]Peace negotiations in Istanbul, Turkey, began on 29 March 2022 and ended without agreement.

Since 2024, Ukraine's main peace terms are that Russia withdraw its troops; that Ukrainian prisoners be released; Russian leaders be prosecuted for war crimes; and Ukraine be given security guarantees to prevent further aggression. Russia's main terms are that Russia must keep all the land it occupies, that it be given all of the provinces that it claims but does not fully control, that Ukraine end plans to join NATO, and that sanctions against Russia be lifted.^[749] According to Western analysts, allowing Russia to keep the land it seized would "reward the aggressor while punishing the victim" and set a dangerous precedent.^[750] They predicted this would encourage Russia "to continue its imperialist campaign of expansionism," and embolden other expansionist regimes.^[750]^[751]^[752]^[753]

After Donald Trump became US president in 2025, there was a major shift in US policy. The Trump administration began negotiations with Russia and separately with Ukraine. In February 2025, the US twice sided with Russia in UN resolutions, opposing a European-drafted resolution condemning Russia's actions and supporting the territorial integrity of Ukraine and then drafting and voting for a UN Security Council resolution calling for the end of the conflict but containing no criticism of Russia.^[754]

Since March 2025, Ukraine has accepted a proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire, which is supported by the US and European allies.^[755] Russia has rejected calls for a ceasefire.^[756]^[757]^[758] In November 2025, Trump adopted a 28-point peace plan, interpreted as broadly pro-Russian,^[759]^[760] and, according to The Insider, at its core a recycled Russian document substantially written by Kirill Dmitriev, a Kremlin operative.^[761] Ukraine, European allies and the US then produced revised versions. These were rejected by the Russians.^[762]

International reactions

The invasion received widespread international condemnation from governments and intergovernmental organisations.^[763] In March 2022 and February 2023, 141 member states of the UN General Assembly voted for a resolution that Russia should immediately withdraw. Seven, including Russia, opposed.^[764] Political reactions to the invasion included new sanctions on Russia, which triggered widespread effects on the Russian and world economies.^[765] As of July 2025, the EU had adopted 18 packages of sanctions against Russia and Belarus.^[766] Sanctions forced Russia to reorient its oil exports, rely more on LNG (which was not subject to EU sanctions), and shift its coal exports from Europe to Asia.^[767] Most European countries cancelled nuclear cooperation with Russia.^[768]

Over 70 countries and the EU delivered humanitarian aid to Ukraine, and nearly 50 countries plus the EU provided military aid.^[769] Economic sanctions included bans on Russian aircraft using EU airspace,^[770]certain Russian banks from the SWIFT payments system, and certain Russian media outlets.^[771] Reactions to the invasion have included public and media responses, peace efforts, and the examination of the invasion's legality.

Demonstrations were held worldwide.^[772] Calls for a boycott of Russian goods spread on social media,^[773] while hackers attacked Russian websites.^[774]Anti-Russian sentiment against Russians living abroad surged.^[775] In March 2022, Russian president Putin introduced prison sentences of up to 15 years for publishing "fake news" about Russian military operations,^[776] intended to suppress any criticism related to the war.^[777]

Some countries, particularly in the Global South, saw public sympathy or support for Russia, due in part to distrust of US foreign policy.^[778] According to the Economist Intelligence Unit, in 2023, 31% of the world's population lives in countries that are leaning towards or supportive of Russia, 30.7% live in neutral countries, and 36.2% live in countries that are against Russia in some way.^[779] Several parliaments passed resolutions declaring Russia to be a state sponsor of terrorism.^[780] By October 2022, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia had declared Russia a terrorist state.^[781] In August 2023, Iceland became the first European country to close its embassy in Russia as a result of the invasion.^[782]

The invasion prompted Ukraine,^[783]Finland, and Sweden to apply for NATO membership.^[784] Finland became a member in 2023,^[785] and Sweden in 2024.^[786]

Notes

↑Belarus's logistical support for Russian forces, particularly allowing Russian forces to launch offensive operations against Ukraine from Belarusian territory in 2022, has been characterised as belligerency on the part of Belarus in this conflict by numerous analysts, including those published by the ISW,^[1] the IISS,^[2] and OSW.^[3]
↑
↑Including military, paramilitary, and 34,000 separatist militias.
↑Attributed to multiple references:^[19]^[20]^[21]^[22]^[23]
↑Attributed to multiple references:^[24]^[25]^[26]^[27]
↑At least 176 foreign civilians from 25 countries are confirmed to have been killed within Ukraine. See table here for a detailed breakdown of deaths by nationalities.
↑See here for a detailed breakdown of civilian deaths by oblast, according to Ukrainian authorities.
↑Some civilians have been reported to have died in captivity in Russia,^[599] like journalist Victoria Roshchyna.^[600]
↑The DPR stated 1,799 of its civilians were killed and 6,902 wounded in its territories between 1 January 2022 and 22 December 2024,^[603] of which 8 died and 23 were wounded between 1 January and 25 February 2022,^[604] leaving a total of 1,791 killed and 6,879 wounded in the period of the Russian invasion.
↑63,000 missing as of 17 February 2025.^[611] 90 percent of which were thought to be soldiers,^[612] which would be around 56,700.
↑In addition, Ukraine claimed six North Korean soldiers were killed in a missile strike in early October 2024, while fighting alongside Russian forces. South Korea's Defense Minister said of this report it was "highly likely" true.^[617] However, Russia denied the reports.^[618]
↑Most likely, new cities meant new industrial cities in Siberia, the construction plans of which were announced by Shoigu in the fall of 2021.^[700]

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Butchenko, Maksym (15 April 2022). "V dukhe Stalina. Fil'tratsionnyye lagerya, doprosy i vyvoz v glush' — kak Moskva nasil'no deportiruyet ukraintsev Donbassa" В духе Сталина. Фильтрационные лагеря, допросы и вывоз в глушь — как Москва насильно депортирует украинцев Донбасса[In the spirit of Stalin. Filtration camps, interrogations and removal into the wilderness – how Moscow forcibly deports Ukrainians from Donbass]. NV.ua (in Russian). Retrieved 20 April 2022.
- Shapoval, Valentyna (18 April 2022). "Denisova: okkupanty derzhat v fil'tratsionnykh lageryakh RF boleye 20 000 mariupol'tsev" Денисова: оккупанты держат в фильтрационных лагерях РФ более 20 000 мариупольцев[Denisov: occupiers keep more than 20,000 Mariupol residents in filtration camps of the Russian Federation]. Segodnya (in Russian). Retrieved 20 April 2022.
- Goricheva, Yuliya; Tokhmakhchi, Аnnа (11 April 2022). ""Razdevali, tatushki moi smotreli". Artem uyekhal iz Mariupolya v "DNR", a potom i iz Rossii. On rasskazyvayet o tom, chto proiskhodilo na granitsakh" "Раздевали, татушки мои смотрели". Артем уехал из Мариуполя в "ДНР", а потом и из России. Он рассказывает о том, что происходило на границах["They undressed, they looked at my tattoos." Artem left Mariupol for the "DPR", and then from Russia. He talks about what happened at the borders]. Current Time TV (in Russian). Retrieved 20 April 2022.
- Hanyukova, Ol'ga (10 April 2022). "Okkupanty sozdali v Rossii lager' dlya deportirovannykh iz Ukrainy: tam soderzhat boleye 400 chelovek" Оккупанты создали в России лагерь для депортированных из Украины: там содержат более 400 человек[The occupiers created a camp in Russia for deportees from Ukraine: more than 400 people are kept there]. Obozrevatel (in Russian). Retrieved 20 April 2022.
- Kurpita, Tat'yana (17 April 2022). ""Ne imeli odezhdy, yedy i predmetov gigiyeny": v Rossii obnaruzhili tri lagerya dlya deportirovannykh mariupol'tsev" "Не имели одежды, еды и предметов гигиены": в России обнаружили три лагеря для депортированных мариупольцев["They didn't have clothes, food and hygiene items": three camps for deported Mariupol residents were found in Russia]. TSN (in Russian). Retrieved 20 April 2022.
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↑Kupriyanova, Olga (24 March 2022). "Fil'tratsionnyye lagerya i trudoustroystvo na Sakhaline: ukraintsev iz okkupirovannykh gorodov prinuditel'no otpravlyayut v rossiyu" Фильтрационные лагеря и трудоустройство на Сахалине: украинцев из оккупированных городов принудительно отправляют в россию[Filtration camps and employment on Sakhalin: Ukrainians from occupied cities are forcibly sent to Russia]. 1+1 (in Russian). Retrieved 20 April 2022.
↑"Putin i Shoygu planirovali sozdat' kontslagerya dlya ukraintsev v Zapadnoy Sibiri, – Danilov" Путин и Шойгу планировали создать концлагеря для украинцев в Западной Сибири, – Данилов[Putin and Shoigu planned to create concentration camps for Ukrainians in Western Siberia – Danilov]. Цензор.НЕТ (in Russian). 21 April 2022. Retrieved 25 April 2022. ^"Putin i Shoygu planirovali sozdat' kontslagerya dlya ukraintsev v Zapadnoy Sibiri – Danilov" Путин и Шойгу планировали создать концлагеря для украинцев в Западной Сибири – Данилов[Putin and Shoigu planned to create concentration camps for Ukrainians in Western Siberia – Danilov]. LIGA (in Russian). 22 April 2022. Retrieved 25 April 2022.
↑"Shoygu nazval mesta dlya stroitel'stva novykh gorodov v Sibiri" Шойгу назвал места для строительства новых городов в Сибири[Shoigu named places for the construction of new cities in Siberia]. РБК (in Russian). 6 September 2021.
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1 2"How to end Russia's war on Ukraine". Chatham House. 3 October 2023.
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Bibliography

D'Anieri, Paul (31 October 2019). Ukraine and Russia: From Civilized Divorce to Uncivil War (1st ed.). Cambridge University Press. ISBN 978-1-108-48609-5– via Google Books.
Wallensteen, Peter (2023). Understanding Conflict Resolution. Los Angeles: SAGE. ISBN 9781529613209. OCLC 1370602224.

External links

The UN and the war in Ukraine at the United Nations
Think Tank reports on the invasion of Ukraine at the Council of the European Union
Russian invasion of Ukraine at Google News
Ukraine conflict updates at the Institute for the Study of War
Interactive Map: Russia's Invasion of Ukraine at the Institute for the Study of War
Interactive Time-lapse: Russia's War in Ukraine at the Institute for the Study of War
G. Jones, Seth; McCabe, Riley (3 June 2025). "Russia's Battlefield Woes in Ukraine". CSIS. Retrieved 18 June 2025.

[4] Belarus's logistical support for Russian forces, particularly allowing Russian forces to launch offensive operations against Ukraine from Belarusian territory in 2022, has been characterised as belligerency on the part of Belarus in this conflict by numerous analysts, including those published by the ISW,^[1] the IISS,^[2] and OSW.^[3]

[5] ↑

[6] Including military, paramilitary, and 34,000 separatist militias.

[27] Attributed to multiple references:^[19]^[20]^[21]^[22]^[23]

[32] Attributed to multiple references:^[24]^[25]^[26]^[27]

[599] At least 176 foreign civilians from 25 countries are confirmed to have been killed within Ukraine. See table here for a detailed breakdown of deaths by nationalities.

[605] See here for a detailed breakdown of civilian deaths by oblast, according to Ukrainian authorities.

[608] Some civilians have been reported to have died in captivity in Russia,^[599] like journalist Victoria Roshchyna.^[600]

[613] The DPR stated 1,799 of its civilians were killed and 6,902 wounded in its territories between 1 January 2022 and 22 December 2024,^[603] of which 8 died and 23 were wounded between 1 January and 25 February 2022,^[604] leaving a total of 1,791 killed and 6,879 wounded in the period of the Russian invasion.

[missing-622] 63,000 missing as of 17 February 2025.^[611] 90 percent of which were thought to be soldiers,^[612] which would be around 56,700.

[DPRK-629] In addition, Ukraine claimed six North Korean soldiers were killed in a missile strike in early October 2024, while fighting alongside Russian forces. South Korea's Defense Minister said of this report it was "highly likely" true.^[617] However, Russia denied the reports.^[618]

[712] Most likely, new cities meant new industrial cities in Siberia, the construction plans of which were announced by Shoigu in the fall of 2021.^[700]

[1] "RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, DECEMBER 11". Institute for the Study of War. 11 December 2022.

[2] Armed Conflict Survey 2023. Taylor & Francis, The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). 6 December 2023. ISBN 978-1-040-01544-5.

[z625-3] "The reluctant co-aggressor. Minsk's complicity in the war against Ukraine". OSW Centre for Eastern Studies. 10 February 2023. Retrieved 30 September 2025.

[7] "75 тысяч погибших российских солдат 120 смертей в день – вот цена, которую платит Россия за нападение на соседнюю страну. Новое большое исследование "Медузы" и "Медиазоны" о потерях". Meduza (in Russian). Retrieved 24 February 2024. ... численность войск на фронте (если при вторжении ее оценивали в 190 тысяч вместе с «народными милициями ДНР и ЛНР», ...

[8] Bengali, Shashank (18 February 2022). "The U.S. says Russia's troop buildup could be as high as 190,000 in and near Ukraine". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 18 February 2022. Retrieved 18 February 2022.

[The_Military_Balance2021-9] Hackett, James, ed. (February 2021). The Military Balance 2021 (1st ed.). Abingdon, Oxfordshire: International Institute for Strategic Studies. p. 68. ISBN 978-1-03-201227-8. OCLC 1292198893. OL 32226712M.

[The_Military_Balance2022_p901-10] 1 2The Military Balance 2022. International Institute for Strategic Studies. February 2022. ISBN 9781000620030– via Google Books.

[ISW_May_30-11] "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 30, 2023". Institute for the Study of War. 31 May 2023. Retrieved 31 May 2023.

[ISW_14_June_2024-12] "Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 14, 2024". Institute for the Study of War. Retrieved 17 August 2023.

[The_Military_Balance2022_p945-13] 1 2The Military Balance 2022. International Institute for Strategic Studies. February 2022. ISBN 9781000620030– via Google Books.

[14] "Ukraine", The World Factbook, Central Intelligence Agency, 2023-01-18, retrieved 19 January 2023

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